Republican Debate: Who Impressed You?

[BobG]

I don't think I can listen to any more Republican debates. Most of them agree on the important issues (cut spending, cut taxes, seal the border, repeal Obamacare) and nit-pick trivial issues. Hopefully Perry and Romney will spend tens of millions on MAD (mutually assured destruction) tv ads. That could leave a three way race: Cain, Newt and maybe a distant Santorum. I do wish Bachman and Ron Paul would drop out. Close your eyes and imagine either of them debating the president; it would be sine die for the campaign. Speaking of debates, Newt has said he would follow the president from stump to stump challenging the president to a series of Lincoln-Douglas style debates. That would really be something to behold!

Skippy

Here's the funny thing. I think Bachmann will win the Iowa caucuses and Paul will do better than one might initially think. In fact, my early predictions:

Iowa: Bachmann wins, Perry finishes second, and Paul finishes third. Bachmann has the best organization in Iowa and Perry has stumbled lately. The Paul campaign organizes well, even if he'll never appeal to the general populace - Iowa caucuses are tailor made for Paul-like campaigns. Cain has a third tier candidate organization, even if he's risen in the polls and his organization in Iowa is truly weak. If Paul beats Perry for second, which is possible, it could be a real blow to Perry's credibility.

New Hampshire: Romney hands down. I think Perry edges Cain out for second, but this state could be Cain's pivotal moment and finishing second would be a real triumph for him. If Cain finishes second, and Paul beats out Perry for third, then Perry's campaign is on the verge of elimination. Theoretically, Huntsman could get a result in this state, but I just don't think he's elevated his visibility enough to do anything at all.

South Carolina: Perry wins. If Gingrich is ever going to make an impact (which I doubt he will) he has to get some kind of result no later than South Carolina and unless Bachmann turns an Iowa victory into something, no one besides Perry will be strong in South Carolina. I think Gingrich has crashed by this point and it goes Perry, Romney, and Bachmann (but I'm really clueless after Perry).

Florida: This should be the showdown between Romney and Perry. I say Romney wins, Perry finishes second, and Cain finishes third. If Gingrich has managed to do something in South Carolina, then Florida is also crucial to him, but I really think Florida is the nail in the coffin and the point where Gingrich officially drops out. If Perry is going to win the nomination, this state is where he has to turn the corner and become the true front runner.

There's a big difference between Cain and Huckabee. Huckabee may have had a low budget, but he was an experienced politician with a sound campaign organization. Cain can turn some good early outings into more money, but, even if he does, he's going to have a hard time turning that money into a sound campaign organization.

I don't think it will happen, but if Gingrich were to have a chance, he'd need a first or second in Iowa (damaging Perry in the process), Cain upsetting Perry for 2nd in NH, leaving a vacuum to be filled in SC - and then Gingrich fills it. If the best possible situation had happened up to that point, then Gingrich would still need a win in Florida - an upset to be sure, but at least an upset within the realm of possibility. If all of that happened, then you'd have a Romney-Gingrich battle where Gingrich would still be the underdog, but at least have established himself as a viable possibility.

Bachmann, Gingrich, Cain, and Paul are just snipers that can damage Perry, but aren't strong enough candidates to win for themselves. Of the four, Gingrich might be the most realistic candidate, but I just don't see it happening for him. He'll be the Giuliani of this election season. Of course, by the end of the summer of 2007, one would have thought McCain was a lot more likely than Giuliani to crash and burn, so any predictions are just sand that can quickly blow away.

 

[mheslep]

Nah, I think Gingrich will finish top three in Iowa.

Edit: re Florida: If Jeb Bush makes an endorsement and follows up on it so goes Florida.

 

[WhoWee]

Nah, I think Gingrich will finish top three in Iowa.

He might - if Bachmann takes Iowa, I doubt Perry will finish in the top 3 spots.

 

[BobG]

Nah, I think Gingrich will finish top three in Iowa.

Edit: re Florida: If Jeb Bush makes an endorsement and follows up on it so goes Florida.

Perhaps.

I still think Gingrich is the perfect example of why Huckabee and Palin both decided to stay out of the race. Being a candidate can really damage a lot of your personal interests (http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gOeTRCuYapW60A8T1FY1EQk9cN9g?docId=4298cf2424d7494f8e457aa6ef8f0cf9 ).

Is staying in the race simply to try and rebuild some foundation for his personal interests? Since he released his 21st Century Contract of America, he's been using his campaign appearances not only to advance his campaign, but to plug both his books and his wife's new children's book. Nothing wrong with that and it doesn't exactly detract from his campaign message, but it does remind some people (his opponents, mostly) that he does have to make sure he still has a life to go back to after this campaign.

It raises issues about how serious Gingrich really is. Is he another Fred Thompson that just never really put in the focused effort needed to win?

If he is, top two would be good as long as top two put him ahead of Perry.