ttn said:
I don't think I said that latter about CFD. Or at least that's not exactly what I meant.
OK, you had said
this earlier, but maybe I misinterpreted it:
"We just have to remember that we are talking about *theories* -- and a theory, by definition, is something that tells you what will happen *if you do such-and-such*. *All* of the predictions of a theory are in that sense hypothetical / counterfactual. Put it this way: the theory doesn't know and certainly doesn't care about what experiment you do in fact actually perform. It just tells you what will happen if you do such-and-such.
So back to your #2 above, of course it makes sense to ask what would have happened if you had turned the polarizers some other way. It makes just as much sense (after the fact, after you actually turned them one way) as it did before you did any experiment at all. How could the theory possibly care whether you've already done the experiment or not, and if so, which one you did? It doesn't care. It just tells you what happens in a given situation. QM works this way, and so does every other theory. So there really is no such thing as option #2."
I thought you meant that insofar as counterfactual definiteness is a necessary assumption for Bell's theorem, it is a trivial feature of all scientific theories.
What I think is more like this: you will realize that this whole issue of CFD simply melts away into nothingness (I mean, it becomes clear that there is no issue here at all) if you think of Bell's theorem as a constraint on *what theories say* -- as opposed to trying to think of every last character in the math as somehow referring directly to some real experimental outcome.
I'm not sure what you're talking about here. I certainly agree that there are some parts of most if not all theories that do not directly relate to experiments. Quantum mechanics contains plenty of that: Hilbert space theory and spectral theory and representation theory, oh my! But what does that have to do with counterfactual definiteness?
But this question does have a definite answer: "If you had instead measured at 45 degrees, what would the possible results have been, and what are their probabilities?" That is, the reason QM gives no definite answer to your question is only that QM is not deterministic.
I agree that in the case of quantum mechanics, counterfactual definiteness is closely related to "future definiteness" AKA determinism. But I think that these two notions should still be logically distinguished from each other.
But that certainly doesn't matter. You can derive the Bell inequality just fine, from locality, without invoking determinism.
I agree that there are local probabilistic theories for which you can derive a Bell inequality. But it is not so clear to me that you can derive a Bell inequality from a local theory, deterministic or not, which does not have counterfactual definiteness.
Of course, you might (as many people have) look at some derivation of the Bell inequality in some textbook and see that it seems to *start with* -- to *presume* -- pre-existing (deterministic) answers/outcomes to all these different possible questions/measurements. But that's just because many commentators and textbook authors confuse (what we call in the article) "Bell's inequality theorem" for the full "Bell's theorem". The full "Bell's theorem" starts just with the assumption of locality and *derives* the pre-existing (deterministic) answers/outcomes, using basically the EPR argument. So really the whole thing leading to this red herring about CFD is simply missing this, failing to realize that "Bell's inequality theorem" and "Bell's theorem" are not the same thing.
I think I do recognize two-step nature of Bell's proof:
1. EPR, in which hidden variables is a conclusion, not an assumption of the argument
2. "Bell's inequality theorem" in which the hidden variables conclusion of EPR is used as an assumption in order to derive the Bell inequality
I think that the basic structure of the argument is valid (although I am curious about Demystifier's contention that the hidden variables conclusion of EPR cannot be quite the same as the hidden variables assumption of the inequality theorem). The only place where I think we differ on this is that you don't think counterfactual definiteness needs to be an assumption of EPR.
Put it this way: it's true that QM is not the type of theory that is assumed in standard derivations of "Bell's inequality theorem". But this is of no real relevance whatsoever. Actually what is shows is just this: QM is not a local theory! (Because, if it were, it would have to explain the perfect correlations with pre-existing values, the way the EPR argument proves any local theory must.)
I pretty much agree with you the QM is nonlocal, only because of wavefunction collapse (although I think DrChinese has some arguments to the effect that QM has "quantum nonlocality" but not "regular" nonlocality). And I also think that it would be pretty hard to come up with an explanation of perfect correlations that did not invoke either nonlocality or conspiracy. But I think it may not quite be logically impossible.
Your "several axes" version of EPR seems to avoid counterfactual definiteness, but I'm not completely convinced that there isn't a leap of logic somewhere, even though I haven't come up with a definitive counterargument yet. You're basically saying that anyone who denies the following statement (and rejects nonlocality) must be a superdeterminist: "If you WOULD have been able to predict with certainty the result of the 0-degree polarization measurement of the distant photon if you HAD performed a 0-degree polarization measurement of your photon, then there IS a pre-existing element of reality corresponding to the 0-degree polarization, even if you do not actually carry out a 0-degree polarization measurement." I think that someone could reject this statement and also reject superdeterminism, but I'm still trying to show how this could be possible.