When I wrote this essay, one of the "theme" that I try to always keep as an underlying message is that, while it is good that one has a particular ambition to go in a particular direction, or a strong idea on what type of physics career one wants to go into, a "backup" plan must always be in place. One can maximize one's "employability" (something that I've always stressed throughout the essay) but not limiting oneself to only the narrow field of study or the narrow range of skills involved in that field. I've advised people to learn computer skills, do more experimental work even if you plan to be a theorist, go learn a characterization measurement even if that work will not end up in your dissertation, etc. In other words, don't hedge your bet all in one basket.
One of the most common career track for physicists is to go into academia. Getting a faculty position, doing (hopefully) minimal teaching load, and spending time with research work. The problem with this is that, even under the best of times, the number of positions available at various universities (especially here in the US) has always been small when compared to the pool of applicants. In many cases, a position opens only when a faculty member retires or leaves the department. This overall impression is supported by the recent http://www.aip.org/statistics/trends/highlite/acad/awf08.pdf". If one looks at Table 1 and Figure 1, there has been no significant change in the total number of physics faculty since 1998. There is even less of a change between 2006 and 2008.
One could argue that during those years, funding for physics had been very challenging, and that certainly was true. While funding for NIH went through the roof, funding for the physical science via the NSF and DOE's Office of Science had either been flat, or even decreased. So, with the recent influx of funding with the Obama administration, will things change? We don't know yet. Recent reports has shown that things are still very tight, and http://sciencecareers.sciencemag.org/career_magazine/previous_issues/articles/2010_01_15/caredit.a1000006" . With the economy the way it is, and with the knowledge that many of the recent influx of money is primarily due to a one-time shot-in-the-arm via the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, such "prosperity" might not last very long. The state of the economy also weighs down heavily, since many state universities depend on state budgets for support. Private institutions also are not immune to the crisis - many major private schools have seen their endowments took a deep plunge after the stock market crash.
The moral of the story has always been that, one must try to diversify oneself as much as possible during one's schooling years. There should be a conscious effort to think about life after graduation, and the possibility that what one is aiming for may not be achievable. It isn't enough to simply be good at something and think that one qualifies to work as so-and-so at such-and-such a place. There must also be an available position.
The small glimmer of silver lining in all of this is that, for students who still have a few more years before they enter the job market, things can easily change for the better. The economy continues to recover slowly, and the reinvestment in sciences is pushing ahead with many major
science projects that would have languished. These projects are expected to start operations within the next few years and would need postdocs and full-time employees. So there are indications that things are improving ... just not at this very moment.
Zz.
