[Statistical Physics] No. of dice rolls so prob of getting a 6 is >90%

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Homework Help Overview

The problem involves determining the number of times a fair die must be rolled to achieve a probability greater than 90% of rolling at least one '6'. Additionally, it asks for the probability of rolling three '6's within that number of throws.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory, Assumption checking

Approaches and Questions Raised

  • Participants discuss the distinction between the probability of rolling at least one '6' versus the probability of rolling exactly one '6'. There is an emphasis on calculating the probability of getting no '6's as a complementary approach.

Discussion Status

Some participants have provided insights into the relationship between the probabilities of getting at least one '6' and getting no '6's. There is acknowledgment of a common misunderstanding regarding the phrasing of the problem, which has led to a productive clarification.

Contextual Notes

The original poster expresses difficulty with the first part of the question, indicating a focus on understanding the underlying probability concepts rather than just seeking a solution.

Flucky
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This question is really wearing me out, any ideas?

Homework Statement



How many times must I throw a fair dice in order to make the probability of getting at least one ‘6’ greater than 90%?
With this many throws, what is the probability of getting three ‘6’s?

It's the first part I'm struggling with.

Homework Equations



The relevant question is the one on the top of the pic attached.

Where
P = probability of outcome interested in
N = number of throws

The Attempt at a Solution



Attatched.

I'm using P(1) as the probability of getting 1 six, so n=1.
For the second part of the equation I would use P(3).
 

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You are trying to calculate the probability of getting one 6. The question is what's the probability of getting AT LEAST one six. that includes two 6s, three 6s, etc. Try calculating the probability of getting NO 6s. That should be 10% since 90% of the time you're getting at least one 6.
 
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You want to consider the probability of getting at least one six. That would include the probability of getting two sixes, or three sixes, ... or N sixes.

How does the probability of getting at least one six in N throws relate to the probability of getting no sixes in N throws?

edit: I've added nothing to what dauto already said.
 
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"At least"... such a rookie mistake missing something like that. It's unreal how much time I've just wasted.

Thanks, I've got it now.
 

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