It is a conjecture with LOADS of support. You sound like a mathematician to me who needs a watertight proof that something is true. Well, go and proof then that the world has 3 spatial dimensions - if you want to, we could argue about that for hours. Did you actually read the more than 50 page thick Bousso paper? So I don't care a damn whether it is generally accepted or not because most people simply don't understand it good enough. And you just proved that by calling it 'barely' a conjecture; the paper of Wald and Marolf actually treats it in rather much detail.
If you want the reference, here it is:
http://arxiv.org/abs/hep-th/9908070
and here is a Bousso review paper
http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/hep-th/pdf/0203/0203101v2.pdf
So, if you still say you think it is 'barely' a conjecture, argue then on basis of those actual results.
By the way, the holographic principle *has* to enter the discussion here if you want to know something about the total entropy of the universe. There is nothing roundabout about this, it's a crucial ingredient to actually understand what is going on. Actually, if you have a better way to even just define a generalized second law of thermodynamics, go ahead. I invite you to share your deep insights with us.
I just saw the video with Carrol and he seems to ''think'' that things like breaking an egg and remembering yesterday but not tomorrow have the same origin :-) Holy Christ, and he wrote a book about it!