The future isn't what it used to be

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the inaccuracies of futurist predictions, particularly regarding technological advancements such as flying cars and space travel. Participants explore the reasons behind these mispredictions and reflect on the complexities of technological development and societal expectations.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested, Conceptual clarification, Exploratory

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants express disappointment over the lack of flying cars, suggesting that their introduction could alleviate road traffic.
  • There is speculation about the potential for AI to control flying cars, with some arguing that this could be a safer application than ground-based autonomous vehicles.
  • One participant notes that futurists often fail to account for the complexities involved in the problems their predictions aim to solve, particularly in the context of AI.
  • Concerns are raised about human fallibility and corporate greed in the deployment of new technologies, referencing the Boeing MCAS as an example.
  • Some participants discuss the historical context of technological predictions, suggesting that past expectations for rapid advancements in space travel were overly optimistic.
  • There is a claim that commercial airplanes have been capable of full autonomy for decades, with skepticism about the future reduction of pilots in aviation.
  • One participant humorously remarks on the nature of the future not aligning with past expectations, emphasizing that this has always been the case.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

The discussion reflects a mix of agreement and disagreement. While there is a shared sentiment of disappointment regarding flying cars, participants diverge on the implications of AI in transportation, the nature of technological progress, and the historical context of predictions.

Contextual Notes

Participants acknowledge the limitations of predictions based on historical trends and the complexities of technological advancements, but do not resolve these issues or provide definitive conclusions.

jtbell
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Nanobots, ape chauffeurs and flights to Pluto. The predictions for 2020 we got horribly wrong (cnn.com)

And we still don't use flying cars to get to work. :cry:

jetsons.jpg
 
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jtbell said:
And we still don't use flying cars to get to work.
I am really upset about that. I hoped that when most people take to flying cars, the traffic on the roads would decrease, and I would finally find space on the roads to practice driving without fifty other cars honking around me. :sad:
 
jtbell said:
And we still don't use flying cars to get to work. :cry:
Can you imagine - today's drivers with an extra dimension to contend with? :nb)
 
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Ibix said:
Can you imagine - today's drivers with an extra dimension to contend with?

Leave control of s flying cars to AI it would seem a better application than to ground based autonomous vehicles. GPS provides enough accuracy to define suitable travel corridors and with cares in constant communication with neighbors and no pedestrians to worry about accidents "should be" very rare.
 
Among the reasons why futurists so often get predictions wrong is that those who make such predictions fail to take into account the complexities involved in the outstanding problems which their predictions are said to solve or address. AI predictions are among the best example of this.

This should make us pause among those who are attempting to make predictions for the future 50 years ahead.
 
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As far as I know the Boeing MCAS is not an AI application. It does point to the ever present problem of human fallibility and greed and the willingness of corporations to disregard seemingly remote problems (and neglecting the advice of experts) in favor of making a buck. That said however it it also a fact that in the deployment of any new technology there will be problems only realized after its introduction.
 
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People extrapolate from recent history, a main reason why predictions made 40-50 years ago of rapidly expanding space travel, moonbases etc came from expecting progress in spaceflight to follow a similar pattern as air travel did during its first 50 years, which went from the Wright bros to jets

now everyone expects new technologies to ramp like IT (‘its all like Moore’s law!’) which creates similarly overoptimistic predictions
 
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gleem said:
As far as I know the Boeing MCAS is not an AI application.
This is correct. Maybe even more to the point, commercial airplanes have already been [capable of being] essentially fully autonomous robots for decades. There's really nowhere else for them to go in terms of developing the automation. I think we are unlikely to ever remove or reduce the pilots.
 
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jtbell said:
The future isn't what it used to be!
... and it never has been
 
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