Calculating Probability using the Poisson Distribution

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SUMMARY

The discussion focuses on calculating the probability of student arrivals using the Poisson distribution and the Exponential distribution. The average arrival rate is established at λ = 2 students per hour. The key challenge is determining the probability that the time between two consecutive arrivals falls within the interval of 10 to 50 minutes. The final probability calculated for the scenario is approximately 0.527, representing the likelihood of no arrivals in the first 10 minutes and at least one arrival in the subsequent 40 minutes.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of Poisson distribution and its parameters (λ and k)
  • Knowledge of Exponential distribution and its application in waiting time problems
  • Familiarity with basic probability concepts and calculations
  • Ability to interpret mathematical equations related to probability
NEXT STEPS
  • Study the derivation and applications of the Poisson distribution in real-world scenarios
  • Learn how to apply the Exponential distribution to model waiting times
  • Explore advanced topics in probability theory, such as conditional probability and memoryless properties
  • Practice solving problems involving multiple distributions to enhance analytical skills
USEFUL FOR

Students, educators, and data analysts interested in probability theory, particularly those working with arrival processes and statistical modeling in various fields such as operations research and queueing theory.

  • #31
sol59 said:
The probability of no arrivals in (9:10, 9:50) is P(Y=0)=e-4/3=0.264
Right, so what is the probability of at least 1 arrival in (9:10, 9:50) ?
 
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  • #32
haruspex said:
Right, so what is the probability of at least 1 arrival in (9:10, 9:50) ?

1-0.264=0.736
 
  • #33
sol59 said:
1-0.264=0.736
Good. So put it all together. What is the probability of no arrivals in (9:00, 9:10) and at least one in (9:10, 9:50)?
 
  • #34
haruspex said:
Good. So put it all together. What is the probability of no arrivals in (9:00, 9:10) and at least one in (9:10, 9:50)?

0,736*0.716=0.527
 
  • #35
sol59 said:
0,736*0.716=0.527
You got there!
 
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  • #36
haruspex said:
You got there!

Thank you so much for your help! I've managed to solve all other problems but this one was too difficult for me:) Thanks again:)!
 

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