I The Prisoner Paradox: Examining the Relativity of Probability in Everyday Life

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The discussion centers on the concept of probability and its relativity in everyday life, using a macabre example of a 50% daily death probability. Participants debate whether the probability of survival changes based on prior outcomes, concluding that while daily probabilities remain constant at 50%, past events influence current assessments. The analogy of coin flips is used to illustrate that each event is independent, yet the cumulative effect of previous days alters the overall survival probability. The conversation also touches on logical reasoning and self-reference, suggesting that assumptions about probability should be carefully scrutinized. Ultimately, the discourse emphasizes that probability is based on current knowledge and can evolve with new information.
  • #31
Update -- user @AplanisTophet has left us, so thread it reopened.
 
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  • #32
berkeman said:
Update -- user @AplanisTophet has left us, so thread it reopened.
I was thinking of starting a new thread as the original OP was not he half as interesting as fresh_42 's prisoner link and Peroks explanations.
 
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  • #33
pinball1970 said:
I was thinking of starting a new thread as the original OP was not he half as interesting as fresh_42 's prisoner link and Peroks explanations.
I'm on a train with no WiFi, but I can post my analysis tomorrow if you start a thread on the prisoner paradox.
 
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  • #34
PeroK said:
I'm on a train with no WiFi, but I can post my analysis tomorrow if you start a thread on the prisoner paradox.
Great will do.
 
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