Morbius said:
ohwilleke,
A single airliner crash kills more people than Chernobyl did.
Dr. Gregory Greenman
Physicist
It depends on how you count. If you count only the 31 people who died in the first few weeks, and you have a pretty large airliner, yes. If you make some reasonable inferences about life time effects from the pollution impact of the disaster, I think this is a hard proposition to support.
It noted also that in addition to the immediate deaths from radiation about 209 people suffered acute radiation syndrome.
http://www.nea.fr/html/rp/chernobyl/c05.html This will likely have a strong long term impact on these acutely affected individuals. Eleven of them have died since then.
The OECD report ( www.nea.fr/html/rp/chernobyl/welcome.html[/url] )notes the increase in cancer incidence among people who lived in the former Soviet Union (i.e. fairly close to the site) a group of people who numbered in the hundreds of thousands in the "highly contaminated territories." Overall its estimate of deaths from late cancer effects, as well as more immediate effects, is in the vincinity of 700-900 deaths at the conservative end of the scale, with non-fatal illnesses affecting thousands of people, and hundreds of thousands of people experiencing forced relocation and/or serious psychological traumas. [url]http://www.nea.fr/html/rp/chernobyl/c05.html[/URL]
A UN report ( [PLAIN]www.chernobyl.info/resources/undpReport10_2_02.pdf[/URL] ) puts the increase in thyroid cancer deaths at about 2,000 and estimates that could grow to 8,000-10,000, while stating that there is not a consensus on the cancer impact in other types of cancers.
The Chernobyl accident will probably end up killing more people than the worst ever airplane crash (a collision of two 747s on a runway on March 27, 1977 in the Canary Islands that killed 583 people), and certainly more than an average one which kills 75-230 people, and will have an overall impact many times as severe. It isn't killing tens of thousands of people, but its significant health and human impact shouldn't be understated either. The only single incident industrial accident in recent history which comes close in terms of mortality and overall impact is the worse Bhopal chemical plant disaster in India.
By comparison, the worst ever mine disaster in the U.S. (in Monongah, West Virginia on December 6, 1907) killed 361 people. In direct deaths an oil pipeline explosion in Nigeria on October 17, 1998 that killed more than 700, a gas pipeline explosion in Ufa, Asha, USSR on June 3, 1989 that killed more than 650 people, the Salang Tunnel explosion in Afghanistan on November 2, 1982 that killed more than 1,000, an accidental dynamite exposion in Cali, Columbia on August 7, 1956 that killed 1,100 people, and an explosion in the Bombay, India harbor on April 14, 1944 that killed 700 people, come close, but none of these accidents had comparable collateral effects.
Chernobyl will end up killing as many people as some of the worst industrial accidents in history, while having the non-deadly environmental impacts of a major oil spill.
The fact that there have been dozens of major oil spills and numerous major industrial accidents in the history of the fossil fuel industry, at gas pipelines, oil pipelines, coal mines and more, still supports the conclusion that nuclear energy is safer by comparison. But, to reduce the harm caused by Chernobyl to the 31 people who died in short order, is to drastically understate the mortality effects of that disaster.