I The Sleeping Beauty Problem: Any halfers here?

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The Sleeping Beauty problem raises a debate between "thirders," who argue the probability of the coin landing heads is 1/3, and "halfers," who believe it is 1/2. Proponents of 1/3 argue that the princess's amnesia prevents her from gaining new information, thus her a posteriori probability remains unchanged. Conversely, halfers contend that since she learns nothing new upon waking, her initial probability of 1/2 should hold. The discussion also explores various scenarios and thought experiments to illustrate the implications of the problem, emphasizing the importance of conditional probabilities. Ultimately, the debate hinges on interpreting the information available to the princess at the moment she is awakened.

What is Sleeping Beauty's credence now for the proposition that the coin landed heads?

  • 1/3

    Votes: 12 33.3%

  • 1/2

    Votes: 11 30.6%

  • It depends on the precise formulation of the problem

    Votes: 13 36.1%
  • Total voters
    36
  • #601
Ken G said:
I am not making up my own, that is precisely the definition I am using.

The definition you are using is in ordinary language, and as I've already pointed out several times in this thread (though a while ago now), ordinary language is vague. That is what you and @Stephen Tashi are illustrating. As soon as you both agree on the actual mathematical problem being posed, you agree on the answer. So the only dispute left is about vague ordinary language. Such disputes are pointless IMO.
 
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  • #602
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Edit (Dale): after discussion, the thread will remain closed
 
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