The Sleeping Beauty Problem: Any halfers here?

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    Beauty
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SUMMARY

The Sleeping Beauty Problem is a well-established dilemma in probability theory, where the debate centers around whether the probability of the coin landing heads is 1/2 or 1/3. Participants in the discussion predominantly argue for the 1/3 solution, asserting that the princess's lack of additional information upon waking does not alter her a priori probability. The discussion highlights various arguments, including the impact of amnesia and the implications of waking multiple times, ultimately reinforcing the stance that the correct answer is 1/3 based on conditional probabilities.

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What is Sleeping Beauty's credence now for the proposition that the coin landed heads?

  • 1/3

    Votes: 12 33.3%

  • 1/2

    Votes: 11 30.6%

  • It depends on the precise formulation of the problem

    Votes: 13 36.1%
  • Total voters
    36
  • #601
Ken G said:
I am not making up my own, that is precisely the definition I am using.

The definition you are using is in ordinary language, and as I've already pointed out several times in this thread (though a while ago now), ordinary language is vague. That is what you and @Stephen Tashi are illustrating. As soon as you both agree on the actual mathematical problem being posed, you agree on the answer. So the only dispute left is about vague ordinary language. Such disputes are pointless IMO.
 
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  • #602
Thread closed for moderation.

Edit (Dale): after discussion, the thread will remain closed
 
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