Two very similar probability questions, just need a confirmation

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In summary, the second hand bookshop owner notes that the weights of paperbacks and hardbacks are Normally distributed with different means and standard deviations. When considering one paperback and two hardbacks chosen at random, the probability that their combined weight is less than a given value can be calculated using the combined normal distribution. Similarly, when considering a selection of 14 different hardbacks, the probability that their combined weight falls between two given values can also be calculated using the combined normal distribution.
  • #1
GandhiReborn
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Homework Statement



Question 1)

A second hand bookshop owner notes that the weights (in gram) of paperbacks are Normally distributed with mean m1 and standard deviation s1, while the weights (again, in grams) of hardbacks are Normally distributed with mean m2 and standard deviation s2, where

m1 = 246, s1 = 16,
m2 = 306, s2 = 20,

Assume that the books are chosen at random.

Let x = 834.

Then the probability that one paperback and two hardback together weigh less than x grammes is:


Question 2)

A second hand bookshop owner notes that the weights (in grams) of paperbacks are Normally distributed with mean m1 and standard deviation s1, while the weights (again, in grams) of hardbacks are Normally distributed with mean m2 and standard deviation s2, where

m1 = 243, s1 = 12,
m2 = 303, s2 = 16,

Assume that the books are chosen at random.

Let M = 14, a = 4243, b = 4843.

Then the probability that a selection of M different hardbacks weighs between a and b grams is

2. The attempt at a solution


Question 1)

I said we would have to form a combined normal distribution, but first we must take the mean and variance of the paperbacks and multiply them by the number of books we are considering, 2.
Then we would add these values to the variance and mean of the hardbacks. This gives a new standard deviation = 32.496 (having sqrt'd the variance) and a new mean of 858.

Following this and using Excel, calculation would be simply "=normdist(834,858,32.496,true) to give us a probability of 0.23009 - is this correct?

Question 2)

I didn't understand whether both pieces of data was needed, so I just took the second set. Similar to before, I worked out the variance of that dataset, multiplied it by the number of books being considered - 14 - then took the new standard deviation. I also multiplied the mean by 14.

Then I just used the function =NORMDIST(4843,4242,59.867,TRUE)-NORMDIST(4243,4242,59.867,TRUE) and that gave me the final answer of 0.493.

Again, is this correct?



Thank you!
 
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  • #2
GandhiReborn said:

Homework Statement



Question 1)

A second hand bookshop owner notes that the weights (in gram) of paperbacks are Normally distributed with mean m1 and standard deviation s1, while the weights (again, in grams) of hardbacks are Normally distributed with mean m2 and standard deviation s2, where

m1 = 246, s1 = 16,
m2 = 306, s2 = 20,

Assume that the books are chosen at random.

Let x = 834.

Then the probability that one paperback and two hardback together weigh less than x grammes is:


Question 2)

A second hand bookshop owner notes that the weights (in grams) of paperbacks are Normally distributed with mean m1 and standard deviation s1, while the weights (again, in grams) of hardbacks are Normally distributed with mean m2 and standard deviation s2, where

m1 = 243, s1 = 12,
m2 = 303, s2 = 16,

Assume that the books are chosen at random.

Let M = 14, a = 4243, b = 4843.

Then the probability that a selection of M different hardbacks weighs between a and b grams is

2. The attempt at a solution


Question 1)

I said we would have to form a combined normal distribution, but first we must take the mean and variance of the paperbacks and multiply them by the number of books we are considering, 2.
Then we would add these values to the variance and mean of the hardbacks. This gives a new standard deviation = 32.496 (having sqrt'd the variance) and a new mean of 858.

Following this and using Excel, calculation would be simply "=normdist(834,858,32.496,true) to give us a probability of 0.23009 - is this correct?

Question 2)

I didn't understand whether both pieces of data was needed, so I just took the second set. Similar to before, I worked out the variance of that dataset, multiplied it by the number of books being considered - 14 - then took the new standard deviation. I also multiplied the mean by 14.

Then I just used the function =NORMDIST(4843,4242,59.867,TRUE)-NORMDIST(4243,4242,59.867,TRUE) and that gave me the final answer of 0.493.

Again, is this correct?



Thank you!

Your answers are correct and your reasoning is good.
 
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  • #3
Awesome, massively appreciate the kind words and confirmation - thank you :D
 

1. What is the difference between independent and dependent events?

Independent events are events where the occurrence of one event does not affect the probability of the other event occurring. Dependent events, on the other hand, are events where the occurrence of one event affects the probability of the other event occurring.

2. How do I calculate the probability of independent events?

To calculate the probability of independent events, you simply multiply the probabilities of each event occurring. For example, if the probability of event A occurring is 0.5 and the probability of event B occurring is 0.3, then the probability of both events occurring is 0.5 x 0.3 = 0.15.

3. Can you explain the formula for calculating the probability of dependent events?

The formula for calculating the probability of two dependent events is P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B|A), where P(A) is the probability of event A occurring and P(B|A) is the probability of event B occurring given that event A has already occurred.

4. Are there any real-life examples of independent and dependent events?

Yes, there are many real-life examples of independent and dependent events. For example, flipping a coin and rolling a die are independent events, as the outcome of one does not affect the outcome of the other. On the other hand, drawing two cards from a deck without replacement is an example of dependent events, as the probability of drawing the second card is affected by what card was drawn first.

5. How can I use probability to make informed decisions?

Probability can be used to make informed decisions by helping us understand the likelihood of different outcomes. By calculating probabilities, we can assess the risks and benefits of different choices and make decisions that are most likely to lead to a desired outcome.

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