ThomasT
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Here's how I'm thinking about it:JesseM said:And what if H represents all local physical facts in the past light cones of the regions where measurement results A and B occurred, at some moment after the time when the two past light cones stopped overlapping (as depicted in Fig. 4 here)? In this case, if you want to know the probability that setting b will give measurement result B over here, and meanwhile another measurement is being made far away with setting a, then if you already know H, the full information about all local physical variables in the past light cone of the measurement b at some time after the last moment when the past light cones of a and b overlapped (so that nothing in H can have a causal effect on the outcome at a), then learning that measurement a resulted in outcome A should tell you nothing further about the probability that measurement b will result in outcome B.
The information regarding whether A or B will detect isn't known at the outset (this knowledge isn't in the past light cones of A and B). So, at the outset of any given trial, the probability of detection at A and the probability of detection at B is always just .5 (even for EPR settings).
On the other hand, what is in the past light cones of A and B is the experimental preparation and setup, which allows that if we've agreed to use the EPR setting, |a-b| = 0, then if A registers a detection, then the probability of detection at B (which was .5) at the outset of the trial, is thereby altered to 1.
So, wrt any settings that allow such contingent alterations in the the probability of an individual detection then F(B|AbH) /= F(B|bH) and F(A|BaH) /= F(A|aH) and F(AB|abH) /= F(A|aH) F(B|bH).
But this doesn't imply ftl because the contingencies that alter the prediction at B given a detection at A, and vice versa, are facts of the experimental setup in the past light cones of both A and B.
Am I missing something?