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If only I could kick 2020 in the nuts. :oldtongue:
 
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Physics news on Phys.org
Ivan Seeking said:
Do we live in a simulation?
What is this "reality" they speak of?
 
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Ivan Seeking said:
Chances are about 50–50
If you assume them to be 50/50, which is exactly what they do to arrive at that "conclusion".
“You just assign a prior probability to each of these models,” Kipping says. “We just assume the principle of indifference, which is the default assumption when you don’t have any data or leanings either way.”

So each hypothesis gets a prior probability of one half, much as if one were to flip a coin to decide a wager
That's a really poor approach if the classes are arbitrary. Why these two? Why not (a) we are not simulated, (b) we are simulated by humans, (c) we are simulated by other individuals? Apply the same principle, now our chance to be in a simulation is 2/3. You can arrive at any other number just by changing the categories.
 
mfb said:
If you assume them to be 50/50, which is exactly what they do to arrive at that "conclusion".That's a really poor approach if the classes are arbitrary. Why these two? Why not (a) we are not simulated, (b) we are simulated by humans, (c) we are simulated by other individuals? Apply the same principle, now our chance to be in a simulation is 2/3. You can arrive at any other number just by changing the categories.

It continues
The next stage of the analysis required thinking about “parous” realities—those that can generate other realities—and “nulliparous” realities—those that cannot simulate offspring realities. If the physical hypothesis was true, then the probability that we were living in a nulliparous universe would be easy to calculate: it would be 100 percent. Kipping then showed that even in the simulation hypothesis, most of the simulated realities would be nulliparous. That is because as simulations spawn more simulations, the computing resources available to each subsequent generation dwindles to the point where the vast majority of realities will be those that do not have the computing power necessary to simulate offspring realities that are capable of hosting conscious beings.

Plug all these into a Bayesian formula, and out comes the answer: the posterior probability that we are living in base reality is almost the same as the posterior probability that we are a simulation—with the odds tilting in favor of base reality by just a smidgen. But Bostrom takes issue with Kipping’s choice to assign equal prior probabilities to the physical and simulation hypothesis at the start of the analysis. “The invocation of the principle of indifference here is rather shaky,” he says. “One could equally well invoke it over my original three alternatives, which would then give them one-third chance each. Or one could carve up the possibility space in some other manner and get any result one wishes.”

Such quibbles are valid because there is no evidence to back one claim over the others. That situation would change if we can find evidence of a simulation. So could you detect a glitch in the Matrix?

Houman Owhadi, an expert on computational mathematics at the California Institute of Technology, has thought about the question. “If the simulation has infinite computing power, there is no way you’re going to see that you’re living in a virtual reality, because it could compute whatever you want to the degree of realism you want,” he says. “If this thing can be detected, you have to start from the principle that [it has] limited computational resources.” Think again of video games, many of which rely on clever programming to minimize the computation required to construct a virtual world.
 
nsaspook said:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55154525

South Africa Powerball jackpot earns fraud inquiry | World | The Times
A special police unit has raided South Africa’s National Lotteries Commission (NLC) after 20 people shared a $380,000 jackpot with a remarkable sequence of winning numbers, leading to accusations of fraud.

_methode_times_prod_web_bin_43765f5a-3a56-11eb-9017-abc630b6062b.jpg

If you see any suspicious balls let your superior know so we can examine those balls closely.
 
So far the first crewed flights of US spacecraft were always done exclusively by men. This is expected to change in July next year with the first crewed flight of Boeing's Starliner, carrying three men and one woman.
Her last name is...
Mann

German for "man".
 
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mfb said:
So far the first crewed flights of US spacecraft were always done exclusively by men. This is expected to change in July next year with the first crewed flight of Boeing's Starliner, carrying three men and one woman.
Her last name is...
Mann

German for "man".
True, that is correct in the literal sense (and yes, it is a bit ironic). But it can also mean "you" or "one" in a more colloquial sense. For example, you could say,

"Wie sagt mann 'Kartoffelsalad' auf English?" which translates to, "How do you say 'potato salad' in English?"
 
collinsmark said:
True, that is correct in the literal sense (and yes, it is a bit ironic). But it can also mean "you" or "one" in a more colloquial sense. For example, you could say,

"Wie sagt mann 'Kartoffelsalad' auf English?" which translates to, "How do you say 'potato salad' in English?"
In this case it would be man, not Mann.
 
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Ivan Seeking said:
McDonald’s opens barber shop
Here, the barber shops all closed, for some reason.
 
Keith_McClary said:
Here, the barber shops all closed, for some reason.
McDonald's here are only allowed to open their drive-throughs. And I need a haircut since I refused to go to the barber shop even before lockdown. I wonder if I can get one at their window ...

Btw.: GB has a mutation, a new strain.
 
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Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny duped a Russian FSB state agent into revealing details of an attack on him with the nerve agent Novichok, the investigative group Bellingcat reports.

Mr Navalny reportedly impersonated a security official to call the agent.

The agent, Konstantin Kudryavtsev, told him the Novichok had been placed in a pair of Mr Navalny's underpants.
:oops:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55395683
 
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Following up on the many recent copycat monoliths, a special Xmas monolith has appeared in San Francisco, made out of gingerbread.

Screen Shot 2020-12-26 at 11.34.30 AM.png

Yum.
 
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https://apnews.com/article/us-news-...ks-manhattan-00ed4641c60828eefca1c14d57faada3

Girl Scouts rebuke Boy Scouts in escalating recruitment war
NEW YORK (AP) — The Girl Scouts are in a “highly damaging” recruitment war with the Boy Scouts after the latter opened its core services to girls, leading to marketplace confusion and some girls unwittingly joining the Boy Scouts, lawyers for the century-old Girl Scouts organization claim in papers filed in a federal court.

The competition, more conjecture than reality two years ago, has intensified as the Boy Scouts of America organization — which insists recruits pledge to be “trustworthy, loyal, helpful, friendly, courteous and kind” — has unfairly recruited girls lately, according to claims in legal briefs filed on behalf of the Girl Scouts of the United States of America.
 
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nsaspook said:
More Russians falling out of windows.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020...us-vaccine-stabbed-falls-out-of-window-a72427

Russian Scientist Who Worked on Coronavirus Vaccine Stabbed, Falls Out of Window

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/6/21248553/coronavirus-russia-doctors-windows-death

Why are Russian Coronavirus doctors mysteriously falling out of windows?
I hope this isn't related to the claimed prediction by Nostradamus that Russian scientists will create a zombie virus that will cause human extinction in 2021.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.du...21-predictions-zombie-apocalypse-19524109.amp

The one disagreement I have with these interpretations is the prediction about earthquakes in CA.

Nostradamus said:
The sloping park, great calamity, Through the Lands of the West and Lombardy The fire in the ship, plague, and captivity; Mercury in Sagittarius, Saturn fading.

Obviously he's talking about Yellowstone erupting (sloping park).
:rolleyes:
 
Last edited:
An absolutely stunning story, and it's just the proverbial tip of a large iceberg.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/12/21/murder-in-malta/

After a journalist was assassinated, her sons found clues in her unfinished work that cracked the case and brought down the government. Prime Minister of Malta, Joseph Muscat, is implicated in an assassination of the journalist, Daphne Caruana Galizia. Also implicated are Keith Schembri, Muscat’s chief of staff, and Konrad Mizzi, Muscat’s energy minister. A Maltese accountant had begun setting up shell companies in Panama five days after Muscat won election to Prime Minister.

It appears that the assassination is related to a corruption racket involving Electrogas, a consortium behind Muscat’s power-station project. By the beginning of 2017, Electrogas had burned through a six-hundred-million-euro loan from the Maltese state. "Daphne had felt for years that the power station made no sense. The previous government had approved the construction of an undersea cable to Sicily, which now connected Malta directly to the European power grid. Muscat’s power station, she thought, was superfluous, costly, and unreliable—and was likely set up as a kind of cover for distributing taxpayer funds to political allies and friends."

Problems with the power plant were revealed when "a ship’s anchor dropped to the seafloor knocking the cable that brings electricity from Sicily. For the first time, Muscat’s new power station was required to power the whole country. Shop lights and street lamps flickered, then went out."

Matthew, Daphne's eldest son, shared a Pulitzer Prize for the Panama Papers leak. In early 2016, Matthew was living in Berlin, working with the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, which broke the story about the Panama papers. The I.C.I.J. partnered with more than a hundred journalists from eighty countries to sort through the information.

Investigators found "trusts in New Zealand, companies in the British Virgin Islands, projects in Montenegro, secret accounts in Shanghai and Dubai belonging to members of the Maltese élite. A third shell company, Egrant, was established at the same time as those owned by the men in Muscat’s Cabinet. But the accountant had taken special care to hide the identity of Egrant’s owner."

"A whistle-blower from a bank told Daphne that Egrant belonged to Muscat’s wife, Michelle. Soon afterward, the whistle-blower fled to Greece. The lead investigator at Malta’s Financial Intelligence Analysis Unit told his bosses that he could find out who owned Egrant within seventy-two hours, if he was given access to the right tax returns, bank statements, and Labour Party files. The next morning, he was fired."

https://lovinmalta.com/opinion/anal...rant-the-company-on-everyones-lips-this-week/
https://theshiftnews.com/2019/06/03/faulty-wiring-konrad-mizzis-sinister-electrogas-deal/
https://timesofmalta.com/articles/v...as-leak-months-prior-to-daphnes-murder.838994
https://www.maltatoday.com.mt/news/..._galizia_pushed_muscat_into_an_early_electionCurrent Malta Prime Minister is Robert Abela. He has is own scandal.
https://www.maltatoday.com.mt/news/...goahead_to_unlock_tax_chiefs_government_phone
 
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