News What are the Key Factors for Victory in the 2008 Presidential Election?

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The discussion centers on the electoral significance of Hispanic and Black voters in the upcoming Obama-McCain election, highlighting that New Mexico's 5 electoral votes may not be pivotal despite its Hispanic population. Eligible Hispanic voters total approximately 17 million, while Black voters are around 24 million, compared to 151 million White voters, indicating a demographic imbalance. Concerns are raised about the potential impact of a Hispanic vice-presidential candidate for Obama, with opinions divided on whether it would significantly sway Hispanic votes. The conversation also touches on the importance of the vice-presidential picks for both candidates, especially considering McCain's age and the historical context of racial tensions surrounding Obama. Overall, the thread emphasizes the need for informed discussions about voter demographics and electoral strategies as the election approaches.

Who will win the General Election?

  • Obama by over 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 16 50.0%

  • Obama by under 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 6 18.8%

  • McCain by over 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 4 12.5%

  • McCain by under 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 6 18.8%
  • Total voters
    32
  • #931
turbo-1 said:
The Republicans have set up circular firing squads. McCain claimed that the RNC was behind the Palin wardrobe fiasco, and the RNC has claimed that the McCain campaign asked them to finance the wardrobe out of coordinated funds. McCain aides are taking pot-shots at Palin in "not for attribution" statements and Palin apparently has few handlers that she actually will listen to. Reportedly, resumes are flying, as RNC and McCain staffers try to re-align themselves and get some sort of job lined up post-election.

I do not want to see the GOP gutted, because the Democrats need somebody to balance them and moderate any excesses, but it appears that the Republican party will suffer severe damage from this campaign. Even though the Dems might not build the 60-vote Senate majority they want so badly, the Republicans might be fractured badly enough to prevent their party leadership from enforcing compliance on legislation that they oppose. Certainly, there must be some kind of shake-up between the true conservatives (so rare) left in the GOP and the neo-cons who have been calling the shots for the last couple of decades.

I was listening an analyst from the Brookings Institute talk about this. He pointed out that the new Democrats are not wild-eyed lefties. Many come from conservative districts and States; and that won't change just because Obama gets elected. They will still have to answer to a conservative constituency.

I do have to laugh when REPUBLICANS misuse the balance of power concept wrt to parties, when THEY have sponsored the greatest abuse of power by the Executive Branch, and the least balanced government in modern history.

There is nothing in the Constitution suggesting that a term or two of one-party rule is a failure of the balance of power concept. In fact, a throw-the-bums-out election is exactly what the Constitution demands!
 
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  • #932
It seem that as people are polled, those who identify themselves as early voters and who have already voted are giving Obama a 19-point lead, and that same 19 points holds when people say that they are going to vote early, but haven't yet.
 
  • #933
turbo-1 said:
It seem that as people are polled, those who identify themselves as early voters and who have already voted are giving Obama a 19-point lead, and that same 19 points holds when people say that they are going to vote early, but haven't yet.

If we are assuming that Palin has already fired-up the base... this could get interesting. Where are they? Perhaps they are standing alone in quicksand.
 
  • #935
BobG said:
Why who would do what?

Why someone would think medical records from a 44-year-ago car accident could possibly be relevant to next week's election?

Or why the Navy won't release information covered by the personal privacy act (1974)?

Edit: FOIA Exemption 6 (and 7)

LowlyPion said:
I think the question arose in reference to the circumstances of the accident itself and various accounts of it. I presume blood alcohol could be an interest to the inquiry.

A DUI would be part of the public record. The magazine wouldn't need medical records for that.

I think the reason for the magazine trying to expedite the request had more to do with the article increasing magazine sales if published before the election and being worthless if published after the election. It had to be completed quickly to have any worth.

Their argument that the Navy had been concealing the truth for 44 years by failing to release information that hadn't been requested until about a month ago was a little thin. I also didn't see that they'd really provided any reason it would be critical for the public to know whether government officials were performing their duties in accordance with the law 44 years ago.

Obviously, the magazine wanted personal info on McCain and couldn't care less about the Navy officials, hospital personnel, or local law enforcement officials, but the release of personal information without a good justification is exactly what the law is supposed to prevent. The justification, "If a person has nothing to hide, then having someone pry into his personal records (or phone calls or e-mails) shouldn't scare him" doesn't fly with most people concerned about civil liberties.
 
  • #936
Evo said:
This article mentions a McCain crowd of 5,000 (my work offices have 15,000 people at this site) a person changing a flat tire here could draw a crowd of 5,000. Obama has been pulling crowds of 100,000 (MO & CO each this last week). What is the largest crowd McCain has been able to pull since he got the Republican nod? (Republican Convention doesn't count)

I think this is why his events are so dark ... so you can't see the back rows of empty seats. They had a stump session in Hershey PA today and it was dark all around the stage. Later they had a reporter there and the lights were up while they broke down the stage and the building was much larger than they showed on TV. I seriously question that they are turning anyone away and are really just desperate to make him look like he's popular in some way.
 
  • #937
BobG said:
A DUI would be part of the public record. The magazine wouldn't need medical records for that.

I think the reason for the magazine trying to expedite the request had more to do with the article increasing magazine sales if published before the election and being worthless if published after the election. It had to be completed quickly to have any worth.

Their argument that the Navy had been concealing the truth for 44 years by failing to release information that hadn't been requested until about a month ago was a little thin. I also didn't see that they'd really provided any reason it would be critical for the public to know whether government officials were performing their duties in accordance with the law 44 years ago.

Obviously, the magazine wanted personal info on McCain and couldn't care less about the Navy officials, hospital personnel, or local law enforcement officials, but the release of personal information without a good justification is exactly what the law is supposed to prevent. The justification, "If a person has nothing to hide, then having someone pry into his personal records (or phone calls or e-mails) shouldn't scare him" doesn't fly with most people concerned about civil liberties.

I believe they started some month or so ago so it's not totally something they sprung at the last minute. But as to personal information, health information, I must say that public figures that seek the Presidency don't exactly have the same rights to privacy as those that have not sought the limelight. In asking to be trusted and govern they have certain responsibilities to be honest and open especially when there is such a disturbingly incompetent VP candidate standing on the podium that would represent a bad outcome for the country and not the deal they would make if they were to know now.

That said though I do tend to agree that there is not likely much there unless there was some son of privilege event that occasioned a cover-up at the time at least as far as the public record goes.
 
  • #938
The latest poll in Alaska only gives the Palin-McCain ticket an 11 point lead. This is down from a 19% advantage in early Sept., according to the same polling organization - the well named Ivan Moore Res.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ak/alaska_mccain_vs_obama-640.html

The poll only had a field of 500 samples, but that represents about 0.1% of the State...
 
  • #939
He Said What? Former Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln Chafee is know for being a friendly, mild-mannered guy. But the Republican-turned-Independent's good nature isn't because he lacks the tough-talk ammo, as he proved Tuesday while promoting his latest book, "Against the Tide: How a Compliant Congress Empowered a Reckless President," at the New America Foundation.
Chafee (a supporter of Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama) was discussing how GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin's speech at the recent Republican National Convention energized the party's base. While he said it was impressive, Chafee thinks the Alaska governor also energized the left, as Democrats were outraged "to see this cocky whacko up there."

Chafee's comment drew gasps from the audience, who apparently were not expecting to hear such relatively feisty language from the normally genteel former Senator. It even shocked event moderator Steve Clemons, who responded, "Did you just say 'cocky whacko'?"

Chafee just smiled.
http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives/2008/09/chafee_said_wha/
 
  • #940
What Does Patriotism Look Like?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JvnFz-WZVZo

At 49:35 in the video, Chafee is talking about McCain's voting record in the Senate, and how McCain bucked against the administration. Chafee said he was great on the environment, and voted against the Bush tax cut bill in 2001. With respect to foreign issues, e.g. Iraq, Chafee describes McCain as beligerent and aggressive (50:47). At 53:17, Chafee responds to the question about Palin.

There's an interesting discussion at 56:00 onward regarding the GOP, and the fact that it has been hi-jacked by the right. The host, Steve Clemons of the New America Foundation, seems to believe that the far right will wreck the GOP at which point the true conservatives, Rockefeller Republicans, will take back the party.

Chafee is currently at the Watson Institute at Brown University.
 
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  • #941
I was struck by the misleading and inane tactics and language used in this pro McCain commercial currently running in Oregon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNRpt3UIZV8
 
  • #942
I doubt McCain will lose either Alaska or Arizona, I'm just glad most Americans are waking up and realizing that McCain like policies don't work, which in some ways seem even more extreme than George Bush's. Remember, Reagan's policies came with a lot of baggage as well, including economics and foreign policy, and yet his Vice President became president, although at least Bush I was somewhat wise on economics. But that isn't happening this year.

I'm glad that the "joe the plumber" type Americans are losing for once with their rhetoric is only appealing to the nutty base:

C5XPK02XMi0[/youtube] Notice how...umbers inane and absolutely asinine comments.
 
  • #943
Ivan Seeking said:
I was struck by the misleading and inane tactics and language used in this pro McCain commercial currently running in Oregon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNRpt3UIZV8

I love how that dude says "they say they know, but they don't." As if multiple mansion owner John McCain knows better. :rolleyes:
 
  • #944
OrbitalPower said:
Even though Fox News put that guy on to really just spread the rhetoric, even the host was baffled by Joe the Plumbers inane and absolutely asinine comments.


You know news stations are going down the tubes when they use Joe the Plumber for political analysis. It's funny, I felt like I was talking to Joe the Plumber the other day because someone said "Obama being president means the death of Israel."
 
  • #945
LightbulbSun said:
You know news stations are going down the tubes when they use Joe the Plumber for political analysis. It's funny, I felt like I was talking to Joe the Plumber the other day because someone said "Obama being president means the death of Israel."
I'm impressed with Shepard Smith and his challenge to Wurzelbacher.

There's the headline on the Huffington Post, "Fox's Shepard Smith Forced To Offer Disclaimer After Joe The Plumber Interview," which I don't see as the case. Smith allowed Wurzelbacher to state his claim, challenged it, and then disputed it. McCain's campaign were the ones making the disclaimer. Maybe Fox is getting some credibility back!

Transcript of exchange between Smith and Wurzelbacher - http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/28/foxs-shepard-smith-forced_n_138674.html

At the end Smith says, "I just want to make this 100 percent perfectly clear -- Barack Obama has said and demonstrated repeatedly that Israel will always be a friend of the United States, no matter what happens once he becomes President of the United States. His words. The rest of it -- man...some things--it just gets frightening sometimes."

Cheers to Shepard Smith on that one!
 
  • #946
And now there's Oppy...

http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/cc65ed650d/ron-howards-call-to-action-from-ron-howard-and-henry-winkler

Is no one going to vote for McCain?
 
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  • #947
OmCheeto said:
Is no one going to vote for McCain?
Hard to believe that anyone would still vote for him.
 
  • #948
OmCheeto said:
Is no one going to vote for McCain?
I think he is still polling a few% ahead among republicans, but that could change.
 
  • #949
Now now... it ain't over till it's over!
 
  • #950
Astronuc said:
I'm impressed with Shepard Smith and his challenge to Wurzelbacher.

There's the headline on the Huffington Post, "Fox's Shepard Smith Forced To Offer Disclaimer After Joe The Plumber Interview," which I don't see as the case. Smith allowed Wurzelbacher to state his claim, challenged it, and then disputed it. McCain's campaign were the ones making the disclaimer. Maybe Fox is getting some credibility back!

Transcript of exchange between Smith and Wurzelbacher - http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/28/foxs-shepard-smith-forced_n_138674.html

At the end Smith says, "I just want to make this 100 percent perfectly clear -- Barack Obama has said and demonstrated repeatedly that Israel will always be a friend of the United States, no matter what happens once he becomes President of the United States. His words. The rest of it -- man...some things--it just gets frightening sometimes."

Cheers to Shepard Smith on that one!

He maybe the only credible person there. They still employ Sean 'Let Me Pierce You With My Stern American Eyes and Pseudo-Intellectualism" Hannity and Bill O'Tool.
 
  • #951
Ladies and gentlemen, tapegate

LA Times withhold video, McCain cries

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/The_LA_Times_explains.html
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/McCain_camp_demands_LA_Times_video.html?showall

Man it's so sad. Why can't LA times release the tape so that McCain can chop it up into a fresh new smear ad? No one needs to know the part where Obama said he didn't agree with the speaker, but it's important to note that not all of his associates are white nor as smart as Joe the Plumber.

Who is Barack Obama? What are his associations? Who cut his hair? During a time of economic crisis and looming election, apparently there are no stupid questions.
 
  • #952
You got to hand it to Charlie Crist. He has extended hours for early voting in FL from 8 to 12 hours a day, despite GOP concerns that providing extra voting time will result in more Democratic votes. Crist's policy is running counter to the GOP program designed to suppress the vote.
 
  • #953
Great Obama commercial last night, just stating what his plans are. Then came two ugly back to back smear ads from McCain. The level of these ads couldn't be more telling. Obama, assured and presidential, McCain sending a message of desperation.
 
  • #954
Evo said:
Great Obama commercial last night, just stating what his plans are. Then came two ugly back to back smear ads from McCain. The level of these ads couldn't be more telling. Obama, assured and presidential, McCain sending a message of desperation.


Apparently Barack is coming out with an ad against McCain. May be negative, but makes a good point.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/29/palin-targeted-in-new-obama-ad/
 
  • #955
It's a pretty good ad.

http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid1185304443/bctid1885474357
 
  • #956
Are you allowed to copy the other side's ads on the basis that it is a comment.
Could you run one of their attack ads with your candidate just laughing over the top of it?
 
  • #957
Look at the desperation of this Liddy Dole ad in NC. When she was at the Red Cross she seemed a capable administrator. But this kind of ridiculous smear tactic almost demands that she be removed from office. There is no place for this kind of thing in any campaign cycle. That she supports this kind of thing, surely speaks volumes about her ethics and desperation to cling to power. I'd say Liddy Dole just joined John McCain in selling her soul to the dark side. Where once stood honor and respect in my mind, now stands deceit and shame. May they both be retired from office and swept out to their deserved retirements.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lf2vDk-4Ag
 
  • #958
mgb_phys said:
Are you allowed to copy the other side's ads on the basis that it is a comment.
Could you run one of their attack ads with your candidate just laughing over the top of it?

Yes, but it wouldn't be very effective.
 
  • #959
LowlyPion said:
Look at the desperation of this Liddy Dole ad in NC. When she was at the Red Cross she seemed a capable administrator. But this kind of ridiculous smear tactic almost demands that she be removed from office. There is no place for this kind of thing in any campaign cycle. That she supports this kind of thing, surely speaks volumes about her ethics and desperation to cling to power. I'd say Liddy Dole just joined John McCain in selling her soul to the dark side. Where once stood honor and respect in my mind, now stands deceit and shame. May they both be retired from office and swept out to their deserved retirements.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lf2vDk-4Ag

Isn't it interesting that alleged "people of faith" turn to hate and fear to promote their message. Instead of a throw-the-bums out election, we need a throw-the-fruitcakes-out election.
 
  • #960
Interesting movement.

http://www.palin4president2008.com/

Our only chance on November 4th is if all True Patriots Write-in Governor Sarah Palin as your choice for President of the United States!

That would make it a 3 party race in 2008.

I'm sure McCain is thrilled about this.
 
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