What are the Key Factors for Victory in the 2008 Presidential Election?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the key factors influencing the outcome of the 2008 Presidential Election between Barack Obama and John McCain. Participants explore various demographic influences, polling data, and the potential impact of vice presidential selections on voter behavior. The scope includes electoral strategies, demographic analysis, and the significance of state-level electoral votes.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Technical explanation
  • Exploratory

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants highlight the importance of Hispanic votes in New Mexico, questioning their overall impact due to the state's small electoral vote count.
  • There are discussions about the total number of eligible voters, noting that eligible Hispanic and Black voters are significantly fewer than White voters.
  • Some participants express skepticism about Obama's ability to rally the Hispanic vote without a Hispanic running mate or specific immigration policies.
  • Concerns are raised regarding the potential backlash from anti-immigration voters if Obama were to choose a Hispanic VP, suggesting it could harm his campaign.
  • Polling data is shared, showing varying predictions for electoral votes, with some suggesting Obama has a lead while others indicate a more competitive race.
  • Participants discuss the potential influence of vice presidential candidates on the election, particularly in relation to demographic appeal and electoral strategy.
  • Some express uncertainty about the electoral college system and its implications for the election outcome, particularly regarding the significance of state-level electoral votes.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a range of views on the importance of demographic factors and polling data, with no clear consensus on the best strategy for either candidate. The discussion remains unresolved regarding the potential effectiveness of various electoral strategies.

Contextual Notes

There are limitations in the discussion regarding the reliability of polling data and the evolving nature of voter demographics, which may not fully capture the current political landscape.

Who May Find This Useful

Individuals interested in electoral strategies, demographic influences on voting behavior, and the dynamics of the 2008 Presidential Election may find this discussion relevant.

Who will win the General Election?

  • Obama by over 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 16 50.0%

  • Obama by under 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 6 18.8%

  • McCain by over 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 4 12.5%

  • McCain by under 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 6 18.8%
  • Total voters
    32
  • #1,111
LowlyPion said:
Only because they make the laws. They are no more one person's than the other.
Well - the US did take the land that belonged to others, or was otherwise occupied, in the first place. In that case, it was a matter of 'Might Makes Right', which has long been the way of the world.
 
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  • #1,112
A personal comment: I have found over the years that before an election, I do a sort of last minute gut check. Have I gotten carried away with one thing or another and lost sight of the truly important issues? I was thinking about this last night and arrived at an unavoidable conclusion. All else aside, I am just as certain that Obama is the right man, as I was that Bush would be a disaster. And I can still recall with great clarity waking to the news that Bush, not Gore, had won in 2000. It was like my worst nightmare coming true and I told EVERYONE as much. Well, I was 100% correct. [This may be why, for the first time in my life, my mother asked for advice about the election]. Bush HAS been a disaster for both the nation and the world. It has been as bad or worse than I imagined.

To former Bush supporters who now support McCain: We warned you about Bush, but you refused to listen. Why won't you listen now? Have you learned nothing? And I'm not talking about McCain here, I mean Palin. McCain would suck, but Palin is Cheney with lipstick, which is why Cheney likes her.

If you think Bush has done a fine job, then clearly we live in different universes and discussion is pointless.
 
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  • #1,113
Ivan Seeking said:
Darn! I tried it, but I guess images won't work in signatures.

Here's a version that's small enough to be used as an avatar.

http://home.earthlink.net/~jparvey/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/hypno3.gif
 
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  • #1,114
Only two more days, and then hopefully no more stupid phone calls from the candidates, parties, pollsters or anyone else either trying to convince us to vote for someone, the party or polling us as to who we are voting for. :rolleyes:

Are those registered as independents get ignored by both parties, or do both parties barrage one with phone calls to support them?
 
  • #1,115
I am an independent, and I am getting several robo-calls a day from McCain's people trashing Obama. I have gotten calls from Obama's people, but I always talked to a real person, and they were polite and were not negative against McCain.
 
  • #1,116
Janus said:
Here's a version that's small enough to be used as an avatar.

http://home.earthlink.net/~jparvey/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/hypno3.gif

Hah! Thanks. :biggrin:
 
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  • #1,117
Ivan Seeking said:
Hah! Thanks. :biggrin:
Oh, noes! Must cut off mullet and vote for guy that's not white! I don't need a cigarette, though. Darn twirly spirals - I like to smoke!
 
  • #1,118
Here is tomorrow’s paper. Already 69 comments
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081102.wcampaignibbitson1103/BNStory/usElection2008/home?cid=al_gam_mostview
Gallup's verdict: It's all but over for McCain
With pollster predicting Obama will win, Republican's only hope for upset rests on Pennsylvania
• Comments ( 69)
•
JOHN IBBITSON
From Monday's Globe and Mail
November 3, 2008 at 12:33 AM EST
=====
 
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  • #1,119
Here is more data than you can shake a stick at.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/today%27s%20polls
 
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  • #1,120
If you haven't voted, please ignore everything that you hear between now and the election, and vote! We don't know how the voting patterns will break. It could be that Obama supporters are voting early, and McCain supporters will come out late. We need every vote that we can get, in every State.
 
  • #1,121


Last update before Election Day.

Electoral maps (Obama/McCain):
Code: 
                              AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                
                                                                 
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  Pollster  Elec-Proj     
                                                                      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191              349/189    
06/26   238/163  317/221  211/194  317/194    288/180              338/200    
07/01   238/163  304/234  231/194  317/221    268/180              338/200    
07/06   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/218    268/177              338/200    
07/11   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/215    268/188              306/232    
07/16   255/163  304/234  231/194  320/204    268/177              311/227    
07/21   255/163  322/216  231/194  312/199    268/172   293/214    298/240    
07/26   238/163  322/216  221/189  292/195    264/175   284/147    338/200    
08/11   238/163  322/216  221/189  289/236    264/202   284/157    298/240    
08/21   228/174  264/274  221/189  264/261    264/210   260/191    264/274    
08/26   228/174  273/265  221/189  273/252    259/210   260/176    273/265    
09/06   238/174  273/265  243/189  301/224    259/194   260/179    278/260    
09/16   207/227  286/252  233/189  247/257    216/246   243/219    273/265    
09/26   228/163  286/252  240/200  286/252    264/185   229/174    273/265    
10/01   249/163  348/190  250/189  286/190    264/185   250/174    273/265    
10/06   264/163  353/185  250/189  329/194    316/174   260/163    364/174    
10/11   277/158  353/185  264/174  343/184    329/158   320/158    364/174    
10/15   286/158  364/174  264/174  357/181    349/158   320/155    369/169    
10/23   306/160  364/174  277/174  337/171    301/160   286/157    364/174    
10/28   306/157  375/163  277/174  364/157    306/142   306/142    375/163    
10/31   311/142  353/185  291/163  364/171    338/142   311/142 
11/03   278/132  353/185  291/157  353/185    318/157   311/142    353/185

Market Update:
Code: 
               INTRADE       IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKET

           Obama    McCain      Dem     Rep
Jun 26     $64.1    $32.4      0.622   0.378
Jul 11     $65.0    $31.2      0.643   0.358
Jul 26     $63.2    $32.2      0.688   0.355
Aug 11     $59.9    $37.2      0.621   0.377
Aug 21     $59.0    $38.7      0.607   0.394
Sep 01     $61.1    $39.2      0.602   0.395
Sep 11     $49.0    $49.9      0.540   0.462
Sep 21     $51.3    $47.7      0.601   0.392
Oct 01     $64.8    $34.6      0.651   0.322
Oct 11     $78.1    $21.9      0.840   0.160   
Oct 15     $80.1    $20.0      0.820   0.185
Oct 23     $85.4    $14.7      0.862   0.135
Oct 28     $87.6    $12.2      0.860   0.130
Oct 31     $84.5    $16.6      0.847   0.154
Nov 03     $89.2    $10.5      0.903   0.103
 
  • #1,122
A life-long conservative who worked at the National Review for forty years and wrote speeches for both Nixon and Reagan is coming out for Obama. In this short article, he explains just how radical the Republican party has gotten and how they have abandoned conservative principles. I wish his endorsement had happened a week or so ago, and been picked up by the major news outlets. In summary:
Jeffery Hart said:
This analysis could be extended, but it seems clear to me that Obama is the conservative in the 2008 election.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2008-10-31/obama-is-the-true-conservative/
 
  • #1,123
Progressive future is running the BEST ad of the campaign. See it here.
 
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  • #1,124
On the eve of election I'm going to make a raid to the Obama camp. Obama promotes a civilian national security force that is as well funded as the military. What does CNSF mean? Is it some kind of paramilitary group? More assault rifles for civilians?
 
  • #1,125
jal said:
Can I get a clarification on Socialism?
Is Palin a socialist for taking money from the oil companies and giving it to the people of Alaska?

No socialism would be like Norway - it takes all the money form the oil companies and invests it. The government is only allowed to spend the return not the capital.
Alaska takes the capital and gives it away - hence capitalist.
 
  • #1,126
Yersterday, in Franklin county, Ohio, the polls closed at 5 PM, but it took until 11 PM before everyone already in line was able to vote.
 
  • #1,127
No socialism would be like Norway - it takes all the money form the oil companies and invests it. The government is only allowed to spend the return not the capital.
Alaska takes the capital and gives it away - hence capitalist.
hehehe! :smile: Cute play on words.
Palin still took from the rich and gave to the poor.
 
  • #1,128
There was a woman commenting that she is voting for McCain because Obama's universal health care plan worries her. She imagines people waiting in lines to get the health care they need.

So, she is worried that the peolple who need care might clog the system? :smile: Let them eat cake!

Obviously she hasn't been to a major hospital lately. It isn't unusual for a trip to the hospital to kill eight to twelve hours, or more. In fact, not long ago, a woman had to wait so long for care that she died in the waiting room. Her husband tried calling 911 for someone to come and help her, but he was told that 911 doesn't rescue people from hospitals.

They did manage to clean-up the blood that she had been vomiting on the lobby floor, but no help for her.

That was at MLK hospital, in Los Angeles, where I have spent many, many hours.
 
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  • #1,129
Interesting vignette. Another personal tale.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TW-6DpC-mj8
 
  • #1,130
LowlyPion said:
Interesting vignette. Another personal tale.
Great catch! That's a pretty sharp old fellow.
 
  • #1,131
turbo-1 said:
Great catch! That's a pretty sharp old fellow.

I should credit Salon.

There is another there of Obama walking a day in the shoes of a woman at home from when he was Senator.

Oh wait. He's Senator now.

But I'm guessing not for long.
 
  • #1,132
Ivan Seeking said:
There was a woman commenting that she is voting for McCain because Obama's universal health care plan worries her. She imagines people waiting in lines to get the health care they need.

So, she is worried that the peolple who need care might clog the system? :smile: Let them eat cake!

Obviously she hasn't been to a major hospital lately. It isn't unusual for a trip to the hospital to kill eight to twelve hours, or more. In fact, not long ago, a woman had to wait so long for care that she died in the waiting room. Her husband tried calling 911 for someone to come and help her, but he was told that 911 doesn't rescue people from hospitals.

They did manage to clean-up the blood that she had been vomiting on the lobby floor, but no help for her.

That was at MLK hospital, in Los Angeles, where I have spent many, many hours.


My mother had a gall bladder problem a couple of years ago, in which she was vomiting so hard she was peeing on the floor and she was in extreme pain. I drive her to the hospital and it took like 6-7 hours before she even got intense treatment. Their reasoning was that someone was not breathing and that was more important. Ok, obviously that is, but you're going to tell me the whole hospital staff is trying to help that person breathe again? Are hospitals really that understaffed?
 
  • #1,133
I noticed this clip from Obama in response the same issues as the low blow ad the McCain PACs have been making recently in hopes of linking Obama to the words of other people.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7piGy0u43c
 
  • #1,134
McCain vs Palin debate



:biggrin:
 
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  • #1,135
phoenixy said:
McCain vs Palin debate
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrUN8oldj9o
:biggrin:

Thanks. That's a good one.
 
  • #1,136
World closely watching US presidential elections
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081103/ap_on_re_as/us_elections_world_view
JAKARTA, Indonesia – When Sri Murtiningsi asked her third graders what they wanted to be when they grew up, the answers ranged from doctors to a pilot. One boy in the class raised his hand: Barack Obama said his dream was to be president of the United States.

Forty years later Murtiningsi — like the rest of the world — is watching closely as Americans prepare to head to the polls Tuesday.

"Barry was the only one who said he wanted to be president ... I hope his dream comes true," Murtiningsi said of Obama, who spent four years living in Indonesia as a child.

Many believe Obama's international experience would go a long way in helping repair damage caused by the unpopular U.S.-led war in Iraq, with recent opinion polls from more than 70 nations favoring him a resounding three-to-one over Republican John McCain.

Newspapers across the globe came out in support of the Democratic candidate Monday.

. . . .
So the whole world is waiting.
 
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  • #1,137
Poor John McCain.

He saddled himself with a stump speech that he has simply repeated far too often. And he so shamelessly has dumped into it just about anything that has gotten him a cheer this year. He still offers nothing original. No actual plans, because all he knows is repeating Bush rhetoric.

But then again, maybe he can only recite something that he has memorized many times over.

The part of his speech where he amps it up to We will fight. We will win sounds like it's straight from a Wasilla Cheerleading manual.
 
  • #1,138
I listened to part of McCain's address in New Hampshire, and he sounded really good, and very positive. If only he had run the campaign with that positive message, and had picked a qualified canditate for VP.
 
  • #1,139
Astronuc said:
I listened to part of McCain's address in New Hampshire, and he sounded really good, and very positive. If only he had run the campaign with that positive message, and had picked a qualified canditate for VP.

The problem is that these speeches are shown everywhere these days.

And when they are repeated time after time it sounds like they have nothing new to say.

I'm sure the first time they sound effective, but honestly they show every speech this cycle and it looks bad after a while.

Biden repeats a lot too. Obama somewhat. But neither like Palin and McCain.

I heard Michelle Obama speak in Nevada today and she wasn't nearly as polished as the candidates, but because she had a new and different perspective and didn't rest so heavily on talking point rhetoric, I thought it was a really effective humanizing speech.
 
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  • #1,140
Obama's Grandmother just passed away.

AP NewsAlert
Nov 3 05:33 PM US/Eastern

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) - Barack Obama says his grandmother died Monday.
Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
 

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