What can we expect in the next 30 years

[MathJakob]

Afternoon all, just a general question I'd like to ask and I'm interested in your responses. Look how far technology has come in the last 70 odd years. From the first black and white tv to HD flat screens. From propeller driven planes to stealth fighters. From the Z1 computer to the modern Intel i7 chips.

It seems that anything we invent just advances at an astonishing rate. So what does the next 30 years hold? Does the climb suddenly become more difficult as we reach the boundaries of what we're capable of? Or is it just a matter of time until each person has their own quantum desktop pc in their homes?

I'd like to see stem cell research take off so no longer is the case where people have to wait for a heart transplant or a liver transplant, which may not even come at all.

So what do you think the next 30 years holds? What would you like to see take off and what? What do you think we should try to steer clear of, if anything.

Thanks.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

I'm looking forward to quantum computers and to see Mammoths alive and in person!

 

[DiracPool]

Of course, I would expect nothing less than the prediction of a scientifically utopian future from a forum full of physicists and engineers, and let us pray that we are given free reign to do just that. However, in my opinion the next 30 years...let's just say the rest of the century, is going to be marked by a struggle between an ever growing "ascientific" greedy and selfish short-sighted majority raping our planet's resources, and those of us who see science, restraint, and humility as the path to the long-term existence and happiness of our species.

So, in my mind that is going to be the limiting factor to scientific progress, not any fundamental theoretical or practical issues. It's going to be a competition for resources between basic/applied research, and population problem that is rapidly getting out of control. We'll see what happens...

 

[MathJakob]

I'm looking forward to quantum computers and to see Mammoths alive and in person!

Not sure what you mean, do you mean that quantum computing is actually a joke and totally out of the realm of capability?

I believe they already exist and infact NASA, Google and Lockheed Martin have all bought a D-Wave quantum computer. Still there are stories that the computer isn't actually a standalone computer yet and you still need desktop PCs to operate them.

I don't know much about it and how feasible it is but remember the world made the same mistake with todays desktops stating that only universities, government and military would have PC's. Then it went to only a few percent of people would even need a computer and they were the size of hummer trucks.

 

[DiracPool]

I believe they already exist and infact NASA, Google and Lockheed Martin have all bought a D-Wave quantum computer. Still there are stories that the computer isn't actually a standalone computer yet and you still need desktop PCs to operate them.

Is that right? Can you provide some references or links for that? I'd like to check that out.

 

[MathJakob]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22554494

http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/2013/06/d-wave-quantum-computer-usc/

http://www.naturalnews.com/040859_skynet_quantum_computing_d-wave_systems.html

Like I said there are doubts as to what it actually is. Make your own minds up.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Not sure what you mean, do you mean that quantum computing is actually a joke and totally out of the realm of capability?

Sorry, I meant use at an affordable consumer level.

 

[wuliheron]

Not sure what you mean, do you mean that quantum computing is actually a joke and totally out of the realm of capability?

I believe they already exist and infact NASA, Google and Lockheed Martin have all bought a D-Wave quantum computer. Still there are stories that the computer isn't actually a standalone computer yet and you still need desktop PCs to operate them.

I don't know much about it and how feasible it is but remember the world made the same mistake with todays desktops stating that only universities, government and military would have PC's. Then it went to only a few percent of people would even need a computer and they were the size of hummer trucks.

No, I'm suggesting that what quantum mechanics implies is existence itself is ultimately absurd. Since then we've had plenty of hints the sciences need to study humor and absurdities more, but in 2008 the evolutionary biologist Alastair Clarke discovered that the foundations of all cognition may be based on a simple fuzzy logic system that revolves around humor.

This is in agreement with the work of others such as the Harvard neurologist Antonio Damasio who specializes in treating patients who have completely lost the ability to emote due to some sort of brain trauma. People who can't decide whether to get out of bed in the morning or tie their own shoes because, literally, nothing matters. The lights are on but nobody is home and they rely utterly on memories and cues from people around them for how to act. Evidently Descartes had it wrong and should have written, "I laugh, therefore I am" and academia will have to find it within them to develop a sense of humor if they are to make progress with systems sciences.

 

[DiracPool]

No, I'm suggesting that what quantum mechanics implies is existence itself is ultimately absurd. Since then we've had plenty of hints the sciences need to study humor and absurdities more.

That's reasonable. I'm all for more humor all around in any endeavor

but in 2008 the evolutionary biologist Alastair Clarke discovered that the foundations of all cognition may be based on a simple fuzzy logic system that revolves around humor

Not likely, that is a gross oversimplification.

This is in agreement with the work of others such as the Harvard neurologist Antonio Damasio who specializes in treating patients who have completely lost the ability to emote due to some sort of brain trauma. People who can't decide whether to get out of bed in the morning or tie their own shoes because, literally, nothing matters. The lights are on but nobody is home and they rely utterly on memories and cues from people around them for how to act.

I am well familiar with Damasio's work, I don't remember him placing any principal importance on a relationship between humor and cognition.

Evidently Descartes had it wrong and should have written, "I laugh, therefore I am" and academia will have to find it within them to develop a sense of humor if they are to make progress with systems sciences.

Is this a reference to Damasio's book, Descarte's error? I don't remember Damasio mentioning anything about that, although I haven't read it in almost 20 years. I still own it, though. Perhaps you could give me some page numbers?

"I laugh, therefore I am"

I think I'll stick with "I think, therefore I am". It has a better ring to it

 

[lisab]

So what do you think the next 30 years holds?

In 30 years, I will be a few months away from turning wonderfully 80 years old. And I will be a few years away from dying tragically in a freak bungee jumping accident.

 

[ProgressNation]

You can expect many things in the future, and I wish to invent new technology that'll change the whole use of electricity and machines, just waiting to graduate from this last year of school and to enter university to know how the scientific universe works. In my opinion, there would be new technologies for cars and the whole electrical/mechanical universe. Just when people think deeply and use their minds, they will surely find the ideal solutions for whatever they thought of... And Science doesn't stop, we can yet discover things that we've had never did previously. And it's honor for me to be on a scientific forums' website! Science is doubtlessly awesome!

 

[DiracPool]

You can expect many things in the future, and I wish to invent new technology that'll change the whole use of electricity and machines, just waiting to graduate from this last year of school and to enter university to know how the scientific universe works. In my opinion, there would be new technologies for cars and the whole electrical/mechanical universe. Just when people think deeply and use their minds, they will surely find the ideal solutions for whatever they thought of... And Science doesn't stop, we can yet discover things that we've had never did previously. And it's honor for me to be on a scientific forums' website! Science is doubtlessly awesome!

You know, if only everyone (or a significant portion of the populace) had that kind of attitude, ProgressNation... Oh what a wonderful world it would be...

 

[edward]

I would imagine Wall Street investors will jump on this new and improved computer. It reminds me of what happened to the market when a hacked tweet about explosions in the Whitehouse caused a massive drop in the DOW.

Some experts claimed that the computers only counted a number of negative words.

And some had another version:

Some experts say the computers took their cue from humans, picking up on a pause in buying as traders read the phony tweet. In Wall Street’s insanely fast trading world, humans holding back for even a second could have signaled to computers that buyers were drying up and that prices could fall, and so the computers should sell fast.

http://www.salon.com/2013/04/24/how_a_twitter_hack_sent_the_market_plummeting_ap/

Could the quantum computers dump the market before it ever happened.?

 

[OmCheeto]

In 30 years, I will be a few months away from turning wonderfully 80 years old. And I will be a few years away from dying tragically in a freak bungee jumping accident.

And I will be there, taking a video, to post on U2B, and there will millions of thumbs up, applauding the crazed babooshka.

And then I suppose, that 60 something boss of ours, will next give me the boot, generating bazillions more thumbs up.

 

[mfb]

I believe they already exist and infact NASA, Google and Lockheed Martin have all bought a D-Wave quantum computer. Still there are stories that the computer isn't actually a standalone computer yet and you still need desktop PCs to operate them.

Quantum computers always have regular electronics, too. You need this to operate the quantum computing part, and I think a lot of code will be done with regular CPUs, too. It is just impractical to use qbits to add +1 to a number (and that is one of the most frequent operations in computers).

Big companies buy a lot of stuff, just in case it could be something interesting. I think the D-Wave device is interesting, but I doubt that it is the quantum-computing equivalent of a CPU - its applications look limited.There are many predictions about the next 30 years. Some points I find interesting:
- faster computers. Okay, obvious.
- self-driving cars. I expect that most cars will be self-driving in 30 years, where it is allowed to use them.
- probably significant advantages in personalized medicine for severe diseases (expensive, but better than current treatments)
- thousands, probably tens of thousands of known planets around other stars (currently we know 908), including several earth-sized planets in the habitable zone and several spectra of those exoplanets. This includes the chance to find life on other planets.
- DEMO (fusion power plant prototype) operational or under construction
- some technology that comes after google glass.

- hopefully new elementary particles, or anything else beyond the Standard Model of particle physics. It would be incredibly boring if we found all particles now.

 

[OmCheeto]

...
So what do you think the next 30 years holds?
...

Given the advances in brain-computer interfaces, and our current social trend, I'm guessing that in 30 years, we will be Borg.

-----------------------------
ps. I discovered yesterday that I had sent myself a message about a year ago,
apparently fully aware that I would be full time senile by now.
Om to lisab in 2046; "Do not go bungee jumping!"
pps. I'll put this on my e-calendar for the day before you jump, and remind you of this post.

 

[HayleySarg]

Given the advances in brain-computer interfaces, and our current social trend, I'm guessing that in 30 years, we will be Borg.

-----------------------------
ps. I discovered yesterday that I had sent myself a message about a year ago,
apparently fully aware that I would be full time senile by now.
Om to lisab in 2046; "Do not go bungee jumping!"
pps. I'll put this on my e-calendar for the day before you jump, and remind you of this post.

Alternate ending: Earth is Unimatrix Zero. The battle with the federation was just an delusional struggle of the residual individual consciousness against the machine.

Also, I hope for more research for research sake. More funding for all! Uhm, anyways.

I'd like to see some cures for major afflictions that hurt us, including our environment ;)

Cheers

 

[OmCheeto]

... taking a video ...

"taking a video"? I suppose we will be laughing about that old technology. Anyone remember 8-tracks?

But I should try and be more serious.

...
I'd like to see stem cell research take off so no longer is the case where people have to wait for a heart transplant or a liver transplant, which may not even come at all.
...

Regarding liver transplants:

Building a Liver From Stem Cells
July 05, 2013 12:00 PM

Reporting in the journal Nature, researchers say they have created a functional liver using induced pluripotent stem cells. The team of scientists first created "liver buds" and transplanted those into mice, where the buds grew into tissue resembling the adult liver.

The future is happening so fast, I can't keep up with it.

hmmm... I'm having deja vu... (google google google)

yup

Sep12-09, 01:37 PM
I was all ready to argue this point until I saw the price of super-capacitors has fallen to a reasonable rate.

Gads.

$1.28 per kJoule!

This means to absorb the energy of a 3500 lb vehicle from 35 mph to zero will only cost $250, vs. $55,000 in 1996.

I should really double check that calculation. If true, my hobby just got a lot simpler.

 

[MathJakob]

I also heard about livers being grown which I think is great and will save millions of lives but the problem with this world is that there are so many religious people who believe it's against gods will to create human body parts. One famous saying was "It isn't our place to play god" which is why I was saying I hope the world wakes up and allows stem cell research to take off.

I know it will never come within 30 years or even 100 years most likely but the thing I'd most like to see in my life time, even if only in it's infancy is human brains being transplanted into robot bodies leaving the brain the only thing in your body susceptible to damage or illness.

Another thing would be the ability to download information. We have our normal day to day memory but we're also have ram in our heads that allows us to download information from the internet which is never forgotten and can be recalled at a moments notice.

That would be great!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...aires--transplanting-brains-robot-bodies.html

 

[HayleySarg]

I don't think I'd like downloading information. I'm only 21, but even reading textbooks online a chore for me. The tactile sensation is just too wonderful of holding a book. I might be a bit weird.

It'd take all my interest out of learning if it just "appeared" in my mind. I may be the odd one out though. The whole point of the thing to me is the journey!

 

[mfb]

I don't think religious arguments will stop the distribution of artificial biological organs. They are just better versions of artificial limbs, pacemakers and so on.

 

[fluidistic]

Go programs will probably be stronger than top pros by then. They are currently not that far from top level: 6 dan in blitz and 5 dan in longer games and have won against 9p professionels with 3 stones handicap only.
But programmers need at least 1 new breakthrough/idea to increase drastically the strength of their programs. Last revolution was Monte Carlo algorithm but still not enough to reach top level.

 

[DiracPool]

tl;dr - its 9/11. her 3 choices went from; lamb stew, chicken curry or meat loaf for dinner tonight (the human experience) to how do i kill myself; with a shard of broken glass, burn alive or jump off the 100th floor to my death (absurdity)

I don't think we're getting anywhere here with this debate so I'm going to end it before we get in trouble for going off-topic. I meant what I said about your favorite fish, though, that is if you want to be initiated properly

 

[Evo]

The off topic posts have been deleted (DP, you read my mind).

 

[aquitaine]

Just looking at technology I think in 30 years cybernetics will have gone mainstream, radical life extension will become a viable option, genetic modification of food will have gained acceptance, we will be seeing a lot more nuclear power being installed (especially modular reactors). Also, traditional internal combustion engines will be into a major decline as we will finally have a battery that is competitive technologically and economically.

Oh yeah, and don't forget about space. We will see the beginnings of a golden age in space exploration that will open up whole new worlds of possibility.

 

[jim hardy]

...we will finally have a battery that is competitive technologically and economically.

i'm betting on mass produced fuel cells with little hydrogen generators like this, not hand-pumped of course:

http://www.alumifuelinternational.com/images/730_PBIS-1000_Gen_4_2.jpg
courtesy http://www.alumifuelinternational.com/ourtechnology.html

and aluminum refineries near hydro, solar and wind electricity farms

 

[aquitaine]

I'm very skeptical about the potential of hydrogen considering it's storage problems, inherent conversion inefficiencies and near total lack of infrastructure. Maybe it will be resolved, but considering the progress batteries have made I'm not convinced it's the best solution.

I also predict that the wind and solar fad will die out between now and 30 years. They are the power sources of antiquity, not the future.

 

[mfb]

Oh yeah, and don't forget about space. We will see the beginnings of a golden age in space exploration that will open up whole new worlds of possibility.

Oh, sure.
Many commercial short trips to space (suborbital) and cheaper rocket launches to orbit are a safe bet.

And I really hope that one of the proposed megastructures has a chance to get realized. I think they are the way to begin serious space travel.I think wind and solar power will still be used in 30 years - more than today. Nuclear fission lacks support from the population in too many countries.