WhoWee said:
The situation you've described sounds VERY much like the conditions in Iraq when US forces took Baghdad. Opinions vary (of course), but one school of thought was that it was a mistake not to retain the standing army and security forces - and re-train them. I don't know if this is realistic in Cairo or not? But it would make sense not to anger then put 50,000 or more armed "thugs" on the street - wouldn't it?
Very true, and this is part of the reason that even though I will freely admit that I tend toward DA's way of thinking, the USA cannot interfere much here.
Remember, in Iraq the Baathists were hated by SOME... OK, many. In Egypt the equivalent doesn't exist. Remember, the last time the Army had to get involved in Egyptian civilian life was the last time the POLICE protested rioted in the 80's (1985 I think). In Egypt, the police have NEVER been liked, loved, or even tolerated much except as a result of terror.
In the end, our thinking on this doesn't matter, because if the Egyptians
see their old regime being recycled into the new one too much, they're going to be very displeased. If it were my choice, I'd take that lesson from Iraq, but also realize that Egypt is a VERY different country, with a different history.
I'd just add, certainly there's bleed-over into the "traffic cop" types in terms of hatred, but remember that MOST of the police in Egypt are at least perceived to be instrument used to abduct and, as DA points out, torture their own citizens. The outrage Egyptians feel at this is not at all unlike the outrage I think Americans feel when there is confirmed police brutality. We're outraged that part of our community whom we cede a measure of authority to is abusing it horribly.
So, for me... I'd have a VERY public series of trials for any police who can be proven, in a REAL court, to have shot peaceful protesters. Then you make another show of changing uniforms and genuine training efforts, and skim only those who would normally "fail" the process anyway.
Keep in mind, what DA is putting out there is clearly the tip of the iceberg, and relatively RECENT. We're talking about the rage of at least 2 generations, and a sense that, "hey, when they let criminals loose and left us alone, we protected ourselves."
Another thought is that you pick the BEST of the current branches of the police (dissolving Thugs/Security Ministry), and yes... probably a few 'Werner Von Brauns' too, because you made the point: we need them. With that, and the massive number of unemployed and underemployed Egyptians, you could have a new police force based on a new structure, but retaining skills and craft of the the veterans.
I'd add, the military in Egypt would be in a position to partner with the USA to train police as well.
DA: I hear you buddy, and it's ugly... the acts of people who are more afraid than they are wise or patriotic. We have to remember that bad as that is, chaos for 80 million IS worse. Some balance needs to be struck, even in a "civilized" nation when dealing with that very small percentage of the population that is bright, motivated, and is truly dangerous.
It would be nice to know what it means, though.
But there is no reason for anger.
