Can the International Community Prevent Catastrophe in Libya?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the escalating unrest in Libya, focusing on the potential for civil conflict and the international community's response. Participants explore the implications of military defections, the role of tribal identities, and the possibility of external intervention, while expressing concerns about the humanitarian situation and the future of governance in Libya.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation
  • Conceptual clarification

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants note the resignation of the Arab League representative for Libya as indicative of the severity of the situation.
  • Reports suggest that military units may have defected, with some soldiers allegedly siding with protesters, raising questions about the loyalty of the military.
  • There are claims that the protests in Libya are inspired by uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, with calls for an end to Gaddafi's rule.
  • Concerns are raised about the fragmentation of Libya due to its lack of a cohesive national identity, with some arguing that tribal affiliations may dominate future governance.
  • Participants speculate about the potential for a warlord situation emerging in Libya, with differing opinions on whether this would be purely tribal or more complex.
  • Gaddafi's statements about martyrdom and his refusal to leave Libya are discussed, with some participants expressing skepticism about his claims of not ordering violence.
  • There are references to international reactions, including speculation about NATO's involvement and the support of other leaders for Gaddafi.
  • Some participants express pessimism about the outcome of the situation, suggesting that a civil war is already underway and that there may be no positive resolution for Libya.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a range of views, with no consensus on the future of Libya or the effectiveness of international intervention. While some agree on the likelihood of civil conflict, others emphasize the uncertainty surrounding the military's loyalty and the potential for fragmentation.

Contextual Notes

Limitations include the reliance on unverified reports regarding military defections and the evolving nature of the protests. The discussion reflects a variety of perspectives on the implications of tribal identities and the historical context of governance in Libya.

Who May Find This Useful

This discussion may be of interest to those following geopolitical developments, humanitarian issues, and the dynamics of civil unrest in the Middle East and North Africa.

  • #61
US response:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12575206

On Thursday, Mr Obama telephoned French President Nicolas Sarkozy of France, UK Prime Minister David Cameron and Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi to co-ordinate a response to the Libya crisis.

Analysis on post-Gaddafi era:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12569902
Libya's best hope may lie in these figures, who in conjunction with representatives from other walks of Libyan life may be able to smooth the way after Gaddafi.

It seems like it is of interest to European countries to bring order to Libya as soon Gaddafi dies.
 
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  • #62
Greg Bernhardt said:
he looks a bit like will ferrell in this video lol
http://cnn.com/video/?/video/world/2011/02/23/mann.gadhafi.reflection.cnn

Yup Megamind

450px-Will_Ferrell_as_MegaMind_by_Gage_Skidmore.jpg
 
  • #63
rootX said:
It seems like it is of interest to European countries to bring order to Libya as soon Gaddafi dies.

Here's an idea: How about European countries and the U.s. bring order to Libya before Gaddafi does. If he beats us to the punch, he lives. If not, I'll visit him in person and ask why he renig'd on a promise he made to a fair maden in our own country. Long story, but it's real. Her brother died in the Lockerbie bombing, and she met with the man a couple years ago.

Sorry, gal. I never wanted to play this card.

The card, however, has been played. Gaddafi? Are you willing to hold true to your word back then with respect to helping establish world peace?

Or are you going to fall on the age-old, countless-lives-wasted, necromonger way of violating life for Science Fiction/Islam/modern footage/reality TV/whatever...

GROW UP, People. I could care less whether it all should fall into my lap. It's not into my lap into which it should fall.
 
  • #64
mugaliens said:
... Gaddafi? Are you willing to hold true to your word back then with respect to helping establish world peace? ... GROW UP, People. I could care less whether it all should fall into my lap.

What on Earth are you talking about? :bugeye: :bugeye: :bugeye: :bugeye: :bugeye:
 
  • #65
rootX said:
Everyone seems obsessed with overthrowing Gadhafi but what about the Libya's future and its people? Will they be better off (with respect to Libya's economy and social reforms) without Gadhafi? I have yet to see a convincing case of the likelihood of Libya improving without him. However, no one seems to be concerned about the future.
I heard an interesting comment this morning. It's seems that Benghazi is function much better under the anti-Gadhafi forces than under the old regime. So it appears there his hope and expectation that Libya will be much better for the people without Gadhafi.

The rebellion apparently started in Benghazi, perhaps inspired by events next door in Egypt.
 
  • #66
Newai said:
Need we say more?

[PLAIN]http://img337.imageshack.us/img337/7690/besttuesdays3.jpg[/QUOTE] His secret wish is to be a Hershey's kiss.
 
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  • #67
Astronuc said:
It's seems that Benghazi is function much better under the anti-Gadhafi forces than under the old regime. So it appears there his hope and expectation that Libya will be much better for the people without Gadhafi.

Definitely, in Benghazi people are singing and dancing in the streets, in ecstatic joy. I’ve heard people are taking care of their own neighborhood; it’s much cleaner now than before. Foreign journalist are welcomed with open arms, and are offered free food and free staying at hotels.

I guess they are like most people – tired of accelerating mental disorders in the leadership...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N2ThlAzZYL8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vg-2ZD1EYe0
 
  • #68
Astronuc said:
His secret wish is to be a Hershey's kiss.

Then I think he should be drowned in a vat of boiling chocolate... feet first.
 
  • #69
Astronuc said:
His secret wish is to be a Hershey's kiss.
:biggrin:
Ooh, the kind with the nut inside!
 
  • #70
Newai said:
:biggrin:
Ooh, the kind with the nut inside!

How old am I? So old that I had to stop and remember Kisses come with almonds now. How old is that?... not old enough that I should have to stop and remember that Kisses come with almonds now.

:cry:
 
  • #71
Quite a story on Yahoo about the initial events in Beghazi.

Battle at army base broke Gadhafi hold in Benghazi (AP)
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110225/ap_on_re_af/af_libya_the_battle_for_benghazi

Those are some brave souls.


Gadhafi is finished. After Beghazi, there is no turning back.
 
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  • #72
Astronuc said:
Quite a story on Yahoo about the initial events in Beghazi.

Battle at army base broke Gadhafi hold in Benghazi (AP)
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110225/ap_on_re_af/af_libya_the_battle_for_benghazi

Those are some brave souls.


Gadhafi is finished. After Beghazi, there is no turning back.

Agreed, but now we have to see how much harm he and his tribe/sons can do before he dies or Tripoli is taken. There's no winning for him, but he could be a "spoiler"... and it fits his personality as he presents it.
 
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  • #73
nismaratwork said:
Agreed, but now we have to see how much harm he and his tribe/sons can do before he dies or Tripoli is taken. There's no winning for him, but he could be a "spoiler"... and it fits his personality as he presents it.
There are increasing calls for investigations of human rights violations - but that's after the fact.

There needs to be decisive military action from NATO. The US is tied up in two other theatres. Ideally the Egyptians and Tunisians would lead an effort to support Free Libya - but I doubt that will happen.

NATO is in a position to take action. I doubt that will happen in a timely manner, i.e. before more innocent people (noncombatants) are killed - if it happens at all.

Folks in Benghazi were disappointed to hear Gadhafi address his supporters from the Green Square in Tripoli. It means the protesters could not hold the area against Gadhafi supporters.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8348490/Gaddafi-claims-crisis-has-ended-Tripolis-Green-Square.html


Meanwhile the Iraqi government in Baghdad is facing similar protests from young people who want and end to corruption and what they see as an undemocratic government in Baghdad.
 
  • #74
Astronuc said:
I heard an interesting comment this morning. It's seems that Benghazi is function much better under the anti-Gadhafi forces than under the old regime. So it appears there his hope and expectation that Libya will be much better for the people without Gadhafi.

Astronuc said:
NATO is in a position to take action. I doubt that will happen in a timely manner, i.e. before more innocent people (noncombatants) are killed - if it happens at all.

You can take an optimistic view and believe that

- Benghazi is a good representative of future and whole Libya
- the crisis can be resolved by sending NATO armies to Libya

I am not that optimistic however I would leave it to you if you wish to substantiate above two arguments. I don't see anything good happening in the near future.
 
  • #75
rootX said:
You can take an optimistic view and believe that

- Benghazi is a good representative of future and whole Libya
- the crisis can be resolved by sending NATO armies to Libya

I am not that optimistic however I would leave it to you if you wish to substantiate above two arguments. I don't see anything good happening in the near future.
Those are your words, not mine. I only report what I hear and see.

The Free Libya forces are not ready or in place to defend their compatriots in Tripoli. Only NATO has the capability, but not the resolve.
 
  • #76
Astronuc said:
Those are your words, not mine. I only report what I hear and see.

Thanks for pointing out that. I believed that's (Benghazi is a good representative of future and whole Libya , the crisis can be resolved by sending NATO armies to Libya) what you were thinking.

The Free Libya forces are not ready or in place to defend their compatriots in Tripoli. Only NATO has the capability, but not the resolve.

Yep, I certainly agree with that.
 
  • #77
Gaddafi supporters:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12558066
Libya: Who is propping up Gaddafi?
Why military action is not considered:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12575058
Military intervention can be safely ruled out: It is so complex and controversial that the Council has only twice taken that route - Korea in 1950 and Iraq in 1991.

Sending in peacekeepers, too, is a non-starter - typically, they are deployed to fortify existing truces or borders (not to fight) at the request of the government of a strife-torn country.

Instituting a "no-fly zone" over Libya enforced by fighter jets is also most unlikely. Council members are wary of such Western-led military measures after their experience in Iraq.

There was also one video from BBC reporter but I cannot find now. One is here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12585949

It is also pointed in the video that Libyan economy relied on migrant workers but currently all the migrant workers are evacuating Libya.
 
  • #78
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110225/ap_on_re_mi_ea/fleeing_libya" .

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110225/ap_on_re_mi_ea/fleeing_libya" ...
 
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  • #79
Astronuc said:
There are increasing calls for investigations of human rights violations - but that's after the fact.

There needs to be decisive military action from NATO. The US is tied up in two other theatres. Ideally the Egyptians and Tunisians would lead an effort to support Free Libya - but I doubt that will happen.

NATO is in a position to take action. I doubt that will happen in a timely manner, i.e. before more innocent people (noncombatants) are killed - if it happens at all.

Folks in Benghazi were disappointed to hear Gadhafi address his supporters from the Green Square in Tripoli. It means the protesters could not hold the area against Gadhafi supporters.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8348490/Gaddafi-claims-crisis-has-ended-Tripolis-Green-Square.html


Meanwhile the Iraqi government in Baghdad is facing similar protests from young people who want and end to corruption and what they see as an undemocratic government in Baghdad.

Agreed; if the EU and neighbors will do nothing, we can at least destroy aviation and naval assets.
 
  • #80
mugaliens said:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110225/ap_on_re_mi_ea/fleeing_libya" .

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110225/ap_on_re_mi_ea/fleeing_libya" ...

Fantstic... just fantastic. This is going to be one for the history books; how EU failed their former colonies in every way imaginable.
 
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  • #82
nismaratwork said:
Fantstic... just fantastic. This is going to be one for the history books; how EU failed their former colonies in every way imaginable.
It looks like the US Navy (Pentagon) is repositioning ships near Libya to support some action. France may be stepping up to the plate, and Ban Ki-moon seems to be calling on the international community to take action to protect Libyan civilian population.

Apparently the US and others have frozen $30 billion of assets of Ghadafi and family. I can't imagine that they obtained $30 billion by being astute investors.
 
  • #83
Astronuc said:
It looks like the US Navy (Pentagon) is repositioning ships near Libya to support some action. France may be stepping up to the plate, and Ban Ki-moon seems to be calling on the international community to take action to protect Libyan civilian population.

Apparently the US and others have frozen $30 billion of assets of Ghadafi and family. I can't imagine that they obtained $30 billion by being astute investors.

Astute investors in alternative enterprises!... like terrorism... OK.


Yeah, I think we have to be part of any air and naval blockade, just given the need for C&C. I sincerely hope that this prevents the bloodshed from becoming catastrophic.
 

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