Undergrad What happens first -- Sun Red Giant or Andromeda collision?

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The discussion centers on the timeline of the Sun becoming a red giant versus the collision of the Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies. It is noted that the collision will not occur until after Earth becomes too hot for liquid water, which is estimated to happen in about 3.75 billion years due to the Sun's increasing luminosity. The collision itself may not significantly disrupt the Solar System, with predictions suggesting a low chance of adverse effects. An informal remark from an astronomer indicated that Earth's oceans could begin to vaporize in about 1 billion years, but this lacks precise calculation. Ultimately, terrestrial life will end long before the galaxies collide.
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What happens first Sun Red Giant or Andromeda collision?
 
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This is difficult to answer because neither has a timestamp. The collision is more diffusion, and long before the sun becomes actually a red giant, it is way too hot for life on earth. So what should we take as time: first stars of two galaxies are closer than how many lightyears, and sun swallows Mercury?
 
By chance, there is a section in Wikipedia that directly addresses your question. It seems that the bottom line is "by the time the two galaxies collide, the surface of the Earth will have already become far too hot for liquid water to exist, ending all terrestrial life; that is currently estimated to occur in about 3.75 billion years "

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andromeda–Milky_Way_collision

Fate of the Solar System[edit]​

See also: Formation and evolution of the Solar System § Galactic collision and planetary disruption
Two scientists with the Harvard–Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics stated that when, and even whether, the two galaxies collide will depend on Andromeda's transverse velocity.[3] Based on current calculations they predict a 50% chance that in a merged galaxy, the Solar System will be swept out three times farther from the galactic core than its current distance.[3] They also predict a 12% chance that the Solar System will be ejected from the new galaxy sometime during the collision.[15][16] Such an event would have no adverse effect on the system and the chances of any sort of disturbance to the Sun or planets themselves may be remote.[15][16]

Excluding planetary engineering, by the time the two galaxies collide, the surface of the Earth will have already become far too hot for liquid water to exist, ending all terrestrial life; that is currently estimated to occur in about 3.75 billion years due to gradually increasing luminosity of the Sun (it will have risen by 35–40% above its current luminosity).[17][18]
 
anorlunda said:
By chance, there is a section in Wikipedia that directly addresses your question. It seems that the bottom line is "by the time the two galaxies collide, the surface of the Earth will have already become far too hot for liquid water to exist, ending all terrestrial life; that is currently estimated to occur in about 3.75 billion years "
I've seen an astronomer on tv last night who said that the oceans will be vaporized in about 1 billion years from now. However, it was a rather informal remark, not an exact calculation.
 
UC Berkely, December 16, 2025 https://news.berkeley.edu/2025/12/16/whats-powering-these-mysterious-bright-blue-cosmic-flashes-astronomers-find-a-clue/ AT 2024wpp, a luminous fast blue optical transient, or LFBOT, is the bright blue spot at the upper right edge of its host galaxy, which is 1.1 billion light-years from Earth in (or near) a galaxy far, far away. Such objects are very bright (obiously) and very energetic. The article indicates that AT 2024wpp had a peak luminosity of 2-4 x...

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