DaveC426913 said:
First, let's define "chance" in this context. If life started by "chance" that means that, on one hundred Earths in identical conditions, it is entirely likely life would not develop on any others. It just happened to be so on this one.
That being said, the third option is that life inevitably followed from the conditions that were present. i.e. on one hundred Earths in identical conditions, all of them would develop life.
Well, certainly it raises the question what a probability for something you know has happened might be. Of course, the probability is 1. The question itself is meaningless.
Then you need to define 'identical conditions', and that is where it becomes tricky. We cannot define identical conditions. We can say how many of a billion unstable atoms will decay in a certain time frame, but we can say nothing about when a particular atom will. We can only place bets. That's a 'law' that is not time-reversible.
So either we have incomplete knowledge at present or chance is a feature of the universe. I'm inclined towards incomplete knowledge, but of course if that is right, we can't know it's right until we find out what that incomplete knowledge might be.
The multiverse solves the problem of chance, but it is hardly an economical solution. It is more like an abandoning of the problem – which may, of course, be the wisest thing to do, but I don't like that. You explain how this happened by including it in the set of 'everything that could have happened'. But it's saying the same thing as chance, really – from this point here to that point there, x possible universes can happen and they all do, so the concept of 'chance' is translated into this: given a particular event or set of events, it is the proportion of possible universes that contain the particular feature you're interested in. The 'chance' of life happening, for instance, could be calculated by looking at how many of those possible universes develop life – given that life will occur at different times in different universes, that's an awful lot of calculations, but theoretically possible, I would have thought.