What is the formula for determining the length of a confidence interval?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around determining the length of a confidence interval for the quota of working people in a city, specifically focusing on the application of statistical formulas and conditions necessary for their use. Participants explore the implications of sample size and the characteristics of the distribution of proportions.

Discussion Character

  • Technical explanation
  • Mathematical reasoning
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • One participant proposes that the length of the confidence interval can be expressed as \(L = 2 \cdot \frac{\sigma \cdot z}{\sqrt{n}}\) and questions the inclusion of \(\hat{p}_n\) in this formula.
  • Another participant clarifies that the distribution of a proportion has a z-distribution with an estimated standard deviation \(\sigma_{\hat{p}_n} = \sqrt{\hat{p}_n(1-\hat{p}_n)}\) and notes the conditions \(n \hat{p}_n > 10\) and \(n (1 − \hat{p}_n) > 10\) for reliability.
  • A later reply reformulates the length of the confidence interval as \(L = 2 \cdot \frac{ \sqrt{\hat{p}_n(1-\hat{p}_n)} \cdot z}{\sqrt{n}}\) and discusses determining \(n\) such that the length does not exceed a specified maximum \(L_{\text{max}}=0.03\), using \(z = 1.96\).
  • Participants express uncertainty about continuing the calculations for \(n\) based on the derived inequalities.
  • There is a repeated inquiry regarding the correct value of \(L_{\text{max}}\), confirming it as \(0.03\).

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants generally agree on the formula for the length of the confidence interval and the conditions for the distribution of proportions. However, there is uncertainty regarding the continuation of calculations for determining \(n\) and some confusion about the maximum length of the confidence interval.

Contextual Notes

The discussion includes limitations such as the dependence on the estimated proportion \(\hat{p}_n\) and the conditions required for the validity of the statistical methods discussed.

mathmari
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Hey! :o

A research institute wants to establish a confidence interval for the quota of working people in a city. Let $\hat{p}_n $ be the estimated quota, based on a sample of size $n$. It is assumed that $n> 30$.
How can one determine the length of the confidence interval?

Generally this is equal to $L = 2 \cdot \frac{\sigma \cdot z}{\sqrt{n}}$, right?

Do you have to use the $\hat{p}_n$ in the formula in this case? But how?

(Wondering)
 
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Hey mathmari! (Wave)

The distribution of a proportion is a special case.
It has a z-distribution with an estimated standard deviation $\sigma_{\hat{p}_n} = \sqrt{\hat{p}_n(1-\hat{p}_n)}$.
And we should have $n \hat{p}_n > 10$ and $n (1 − \hat{p}_n) > 10$ to ensure it is sufficiently reliable.
 
I like Serena said:
The distribution of a proportion is a special case.
It has a z-distribution with an estimated standard deviation $\sigma_{\hat{p}_n} = \sqrt{\hat{p}_n(1-\hat{p}_n)}$.
And we should have $n \hat{p}_n > 10$ and $n (1 − \hat{p}_n) > 10$ to ensure it is sufficiently reliable.

Ah ok!

So, the length is equal to $$L = 2 \cdot \frac{\sigma_{\hat{p}_n} \cdot z}{\sqrt{n}}= 2 \cdot \frac{ \sqrt{\hat{p}_n(1-\hat{p}_n)} \cdot z}{\sqrt{n}}$$ where $z$ depends on the confidence level $1-\alpha$, right? (Wondering)
Suppose that $1-\alpha=0.95$. I want to determine $n$ so that the length of confidence interval is not bigger that $L_{\text{max}}=0.03$.

We have that $z =1.96$.

Then $$L_{\text{max}}=0.03 \Rightarrow 2 \cdot \frac{ \sqrt{\hat{p}_n(1-\hat{p}_n)} \cdot 1.96}{\sqrt{n}}\leq 0.03\Rightarrow \frac{ \sqrt{\hat{p}_n(1-\hat{p}_n)} }{\sqrt{n}}\leq \frac{3}{392} \Rightarrow \frac{ \hat{p}_n(1-\hat{p}_n) }{n}\leq \frac{9}{153664}\Rightarrow n\geq \frac{153664\hat{p}_n(1-\hat{p}_n)}{9}$$ right? We cannot continue from here, can we? (Wondering)
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Indeed. (Nod)
Btw, do we have $L_{\text{max}}=0.04$ or $L_{\text{max}}=0.03$?
 
I like Serena said:
Indeed. (Nod)
Btw, do we have $L_{\text{max}}=0.04$ or $L_{\text{max}}=0.03$?

Oh, it is $L_{\text{max}}=0.03$. (Tmi)
 

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