What is the likelihood of a 14-year-old student being taller than 170cm?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the statistical analysis of the heights of 14-year-old students, specifically focusing on the probabilities of students being taller than 170 cm. The conversation includes calculations related to normal distributions for both girls and boys, as well as various probability questions and interpretations of z-scores.

Discussion Character

  • Technical explanation
  • Mathematical reasoning
  • Homework-related
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • One participant calculates the probability that a girl is taller than 170 cm using a z-score of 1.5, resulting in a probability of approximately 0.0668072.
  • Another participant corrects the z-score calculation for the probability of a girl being taller than 170 cm, suggesting a probability of 0.0668 based on a different interpretation of the z-table.
  • There is a question regarding the origin of the "area of 0.4" in the context of finding a height threshold for girls, with one participant explaining it relates to the distribution of heights around the mean.
  • For boys, one participant calculates the heights corresponding to the middle 90% of the distribution, suggesting values for q and r based on z-scores of approximately 1.66 and later correcting to 1.645.
  • Another participant mentions using numeric integration to refine the z-score for the boys' height calculations, indicating a value closer to 1.64485.
  • One participant presents a method for calculating the overall probability of a randomly selected student being taller than 170 cm, based on the proportions of boys and girls in the group.
  • Finally, a calculation is provided for the conditional probability that a student taller than 170 cm is a girl, yielding an approximate probability of 0.33.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on the calculations and interpretations of z-scores, particularly regarding the correct values to use for the probabilities. There is no consensus on the final answers for some of the questions, and several calculations are presented with varying degrees of agreement.

Contextual Notes

Some calculations rely on specific interpretations of z-scores and the use of different z-tables, which may lead to slight variations in results. The discussion also includes assumptions about the normal distribution of heights and the proportions of boys and girls in the sample.

karush
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In a large school, the heights of all $14$yr old students are measured

The heights of the girls are normally distributed with a mean $155$cm and a standard deviation of $10$cm

The heights of the boys are normally distributed with a mean $160$cm and a standard deviation of $12$cm

(a) Find the probability that a girl is taller than $170$cm.

$\frac{155-170}{10}=1.5$

so with $\mu=0$ and $\sigma=1$ then $P(x>1.5) =0.0668072$

View attachment 1090

(b) Given that $10\%$ of the girls are shorter than $x$cm, find $x$

from z-table $10\%$ is about $.25$ so $.25=\frac{x-155}{10} x\approx157$

but i don't think this is the answer $143$ looks closer so ?

there is still (c), (d), and (e) but have to do later
 
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a) You have the correct z-score, but I would use:

$$z=\frac{x-\mu}{\sigma}=\frac{170-155}{10}=1.5$$

By my table, the area between 0 and 1.5 is 0.4332, hence:

$$P(X>170)=0.5-0.4332=0.0668$$

b) We want to find the z-score associated with an area of 0.4, which is about 1.28, and we attach a negative sign since this is to the left of the mean.

$$x=z\sigma+\mu=-1.28\cdot10+155=142.2$$
 
MarkFL said:
b) We want to find the z-score associated with an area of 0.4, which is about 1.28, and we attach a negative sign since this is to the left of the mean.

$$x=z\sigma+\mu=-1.28\cdot10+155=142.2$$

Where does the "area of 0.4" come from?

(c) Given that $90\%$ of the boys have heights between $q$ cm and $r$ cm

where $q$ and r are symmetrical about $160$ cm, and $q<r$

find the value of $q$ and of $r$.

well I did this half of $90\%$ is $45\%$ so $.45$ on Z table is about $1.66$ so
$160-1.66\cdot12\approx140.3=q$
and
$160+1.66\cdot10\approx179.7=r$

View attachment 1092

is this correct?
 
Last edited:
karush said:
Where does the "area of 0.4" come from?

We want 90% of the data to be greater than $x$. We know 50% is greater than $\mu$, and so that leaves 40% to be greater than $x$ and less than $\mu$.
 
karush said:
(c) Given that $90\%$ of the boys have heights between $q$ cm and $r$ cm

where $q$ and r are symmetrical about $160$ cm, and $q<r$

find the value of $q$ and of $r$.

well I did this half of $90\%$ is $45\%$ so $.45$ on Z table is about $1.66$ so
$160-1.66\cdot12\approx140.3=q$
and
$160+1.66\cdot10\approx179.7=r$

View attachment 1092

is this correct?

According to my table, the $z$-score is closer to 1.645 (using linear extrapolation).

Using numeric integration, I find it is closer to 1.64485.
 
MarkFL said:
According to my table, the $z$-score is closer to 1.645 (using linear extrapolation).

Using numeric integration, I find it is closer to 1.64485.

0.44950 from the wiki-z-table gave me 1.64 $160-1.64\cdot12\approx140.3=q$
$160+1.64\cdot12\approx179.7=r$
my prev post should of shown 1.64 not 1.66

still have (d) and (e) but have to come back to post it.
 
In the group of 14yr olds students $60$% are girls and $40$% are boys.

The probability that a girl is taller than $170$cm is $0.066$

The probability that a boy is taller than $170$cm is $0.202$

A fourteen-year-old student is selected at random

(d) Calculate the probability that the student is taller than $170$cm

this is probably not conventional method but if there are $600$ girls then $39$ of them are over $170$ cm and if there are $400$ boys then $81$ of them are over $170$ cm so that is
$\frac{120}{1000}\approx .12$

(e) Given that the student is taller than $170$ cm, what is the probability the student is a girl?
$\frac{39}{120}\approx .33$
 

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