What Percentage of People Will Pick the Most Voted Option?

[Evo]

What percentage do you think will cherry pick the right answer?

Hopefully, over half, because I need some help if my pick is going to be correct.

Actually, I need a lot more than half. Based on the 36 already completing the poll, if the next 36 people cheat, the winning percentage will be 30% (barely less than 35%).

It takes a whole lot of cheating (or just a lot if they all cheat at the same time and don't know about the other cheaters) to ever reach 60%

I can alter the number of votes in the poll, how much is it worth to you to guess the correct number?

 

[Moonbear]

Of course, it's easy to get the correct answer by simply delaying one's vote until looking at how the result turns out. Several members have already stated that they intend to cheat in this way, which really defeats the purpose of the poll in my opinion...because they are just cherry-picking the right answer after the votes have been cast. The challenge is trying to guess what will happen in advance, or without looking at the results.

Unless there are a lot of them who wait until the last minute to cheat, and completely change the results by doing so.

 

[tgt]

I chose 0%. Most PFers are individualists and will deliberately avoid picking the most popular choices.

Then you'd choose 100% or something high.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

Then you'd choose 100% or something high.

Come on people, it was just a variation on an old joke. "No one goes there anymore, it's too crowded."

 

[Math Is Hard]

Come on people, it was just a variation on an old joke. "No one goes there anymore, it's too crowded."

Yogi Berra, right?

 

[AUMathTutor]

It looks like the 20%'s won. Good game.

 

[Loren Booda]

I read 30%.

 

[AUMathTutor]

You might want to check it again.

30% received the most votes, around 23%. This, of course, rounds to 20%. So those people who voted for 20% win, even though they are not a majority.

 

[junglebeast]

...causing the true answer to be somewhere between 10 or 20%.

Nuts, everyone who voted at the end threw my estimate off by 3%

 

[BobG]

It looks like the 20%'s won. Good game.

It was a good game. I don't think 20% would win if the game were played again, though. Having played once, the results would be skewed.

 

[Loren Booda]

You might want to check it again.

30% received the most votes, around 23%. This, of course, rounds to 20%. So those people who voted for 20% win, even though they are not a majority.

Got it.