What was the probability of the Roosters winning their last game at home?

  • Context: MHB 
  • Thread starter Thread starter Bushy
  • Start date Start date
  • Tags Tags
    Probability
Click For Summary
SUMMARY

The probability of the Roosters winning their last game at home is calculated using conditional probability. The Roosters have an 80% win rate at home and a 40% win rate away, with 55% of their games played at home. The overall probability of winning is 0.62. The conditional probability of the game being at home given a win is determined by the formula P(winning-at-home) divided by P(winning), confirming that the last game was indeed played at home.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of conditional probability
  • Familiarity with basic probability formulas
  • Knowledge of win rates in sports analytics
  • Ability to interpret statistical data
NEXT STEPS
  • Study conditional probability in depth
  • Learn about Bayesian statistics for sports predictions
  • Explore advanced probability models in sports analytics
  • Research statistical software tools for data analysis
USEFUL FOR

Sports analysts, statisticians, and anyone interested in understanding probability in sports outcomes.

Bushy
Messages
40
Reaction score
0
The Roosters know that they will win 80% of their home matches and 40% of their away matches. This season’s fixture has the Roosters playing 55% of their games at home. Given that the Roosters won their last game, what was the probability that it was played at home? To find the probability of winning = 0.8x.55+0.4x0.45 = 0.62

To find if it was played at home 'given' a win then = the intersection of the two / 0.62
 
Physics news on Phys.org
Yes it is correct.
In this case, the conditional probability can be equated as:
$$\frac{P(winning-at-home)}{P(winning)}$$.
 

Similar threads

  • · Replies 8 ·
Replies
8
Views
2K
  • · Replies 2 ·
Replies
2
Views
2K
  • · Replies 1 ·
Replies
1
Views
2K
  • · Replies 75 ·
3
Replies
75
Views
8K
Replies
1
Views
2K
  • · Replies 4 ·
Replies
4
Views
3K
  • · Replies 5 ·
Replies
5
Views
2K
  • · Replies 3 ·
Replies
3
Views
2K
  • · Replies 1 ·
Replies
1
Views
2K
  • · Replies 7 ·
Replies
7
Views
2K