russ_watters said:
And continues to build:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2005-04-13-delay_x.htm
The problem is that DeLay's ethics issues are a side-issue to the philosophical problems of the party. Essentially it boils down to the dominance of christian fundamentalism and its manifestations. The cure (as always) is for the people to take back their party.
Which people? You have at least 4 major groups, or maybe 5 if you add in a moderate group that shares enough interests of the other four to hang around with Republicans.
Change is pretty much the status quo.
The Republicans started out as a merger of the Whigs (strong central government), industrialists, and anti-slavery abolitionists. All three had similar interests (elimination of slavery has the side effect of a dependence on machinery). US industry was still too weak to compete against Europe, even within our own continent. They built the country's industrial base with strong management by the government, protecting industry from foreign competition via high tariffs and investing in a strong infrastructure (Erie canal, a standardized train system, the first 'modern' public school system).
After the country was established economically, the Republicans turned against government interference (don't overcook the pasta). Democrats pushed for immediately sharing all the wealth with the labor that built the goods while Republicans pushed for reinvesting the wealth to make sure the economic base stayed strong (if you spend every penny you earn and put some aside for bad times and retirement, you're eventually going to have some big problems - uh oh, I just revealed the group I identify with). There's still a large base of fiscal conservatives in the Republican party.
After WWII, with the cold war, a lot of Republicans finally turned toward internationalism and free trade and went back to thinking you needed a strong central government to manage that, both economically and politically, becoming involved in the politics of all these emerging nations. These guys drove a lot of our biggest diplomatic successes and a lot of our worst military failures. You still have a large base of neoconservatives that believe in the Cold War foreign policy style. Unfortunately, a lot of neocons are still following a Cold War mentality when a war against terrorism probably has to be fought in a drastically different manner than a cold war.
With just two groups, I don't think you had that big of a problem with the party. The problem is the two new groups in the Republican party - the paleoconservatives (like Pat Buchanan) who defected from the Democratic Party when the Dems adopted civil rights as one of their core values, and the religious right. They might technically be two different groups, but there's a pretty big overlap in the South and, combined, they've got a lot more power than they used to (in fact, the friends the religious right keeps is scarier than the religious right, itself).
If you look at history, the social activists have pretty much been that special energy that's changed which party has dominated. The Whigs petered out relying just on abstract government management principles - the abolitionists provided that special extra energy to the Republicans that they were able to actually apply the Whig principles. The Dems were nowhere in the 20's until they got that special extra energy from the pro-labor movement (the Depression probably had a lot to do with that success, as well). Fear of communism gave the Republicans a little extra boost early in the Cold War, but fear doesn't make a hugely successful social cause. The civil rights movement gave the Democrats the little extra energy they needed to dominate from the 50's through the 80's.
The neocons War on Terror is probably going to motivate about as long as McCarthy's anti-communism movement. The religous right really could be the group that provides (and has provided - this movement started in the 90's, not post 9/11) that little extra energy needed to take control of government from the Democrats.
It's hard to energize people with dull things like 'what's the best way for government to manage the economy'. That's not nearly as exciting as issues like Terri Schiavo and Laci Peterson. We might have to accept the idea that the Republican Party is turning into an ideological party that's a lot different from the Republican Party of the recent past. Unfortunately, if the current progress of Social Security reform is any indication, we might not even get many of the economic side benefits of Republicans being in control.