When will China overtake the U.S, economically? - 2

[Astronuc]

It was asked a few years ago - When will China overtake the U.S, economically?
https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/when-will-china-overtake-the-u-s-economically.528114/

Well by one measure - now.

The International Monetary Fund recently released the latest numbers for the world economy. And when you measure national economic output in “real” terms of goods and services, China will this year produce $17.6 trillion — compared with $17.4 trillion for the U.S.A.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/official-america-now-no-2-150936444.html

As was pointed out, the per capita GDP of China is much less due to the much greater population.

As recently as 2000, [the US] produced nearly three times as much as the Chinese.

To put the numbers slightly differently, China now accounts for 16.5% of the global economy when measured in real purchasing-power terms, compared with 16.3% for the U.S.

This latest economic earthquake follows the development last year when China surpassed the U.S. for the first time in terms of global trade.

On the other hand, China has a huge debt.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jackperkowski/2014/01/21/chinas-debt-how-serious-is-it/

But so does the US
http://www.concordcoalition.org/us-total-national-debt
http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/dc-forgets-about-debt
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/

 

[mheslep]

Interesting that China has grown economically so rapidly, but otherwise I don't know that China's relative economic size matters much with respect to geopolitics despite the Market Watch reporters frantic prose. The comparison with the UK is particularly silly. The UKs power declined absolutely, not relatively, due to the wars, and, unlike the British pound, the dollar has no possible replacement on the horizon.

 

[russ_watters]

Interesting that China has grown economically so rapidly, but otherwise I don't know that China's relative economic size matters much with respect to geopolitics despite the Market Watch reporters frantic prose. The comparison with the UK is particularly silly. The UKs power declined absolutely, not relatively, due to the wars, and, unlike the British pound, the dollar has no possible replacement on the horizon.

Agreed. Pointless media/pundit hype. When I have more time, I'll see if I can think of a less relevant measure of our relative economic strength...

 

[Bystander]

unlike the British pound, the dollar has no possible replacement on the horizon.

Agreed. Pointless media/pundit hype.

"Too big to fail --- ?" Fingers crossed. For Russ, and anyone else, interesting read from 5 (10?) years back, The Mystery of Capital, Hernando de Soto, 2000, (15 years back) explores the concept of "private property" and property rights as they developed in the west and in the new world as a foundation for economic prosperity/strength.

Arguably Europe and the U.S. are headed away from focus on private property, and the two big economies in Asia having allowed people a taste of it may become more independent of governments founded on principals borrowed from other non-functional Euro-centric models of property.

 

[mheslep]

"Too big to fail --- ?" Fingers crossed. For Russ, and anyone else, interesting read from 5 (10?) years back, The Mystery of Capital, Hernando de Soto, 2000, (15 years back) explores the concept of "private property" and property rights as they developed in the west and in the new world as a foundation for economic prosperity/strength.

Arguably Europe and the U.S. are headed away from focus on private property, and the two big economies in Asia having allowed people a taste of it may become more independent of governments founded on principals borrowed from other non-functional Euro-centric models of property.

I am not sanguine about the future of the US. If there was another up and coming younger version of the U.S., say a 1920s version, with the same pluralistic government, property rights, and a similar dynamism, then I think the 21st century U.S. with its bloated government would get run over by its younger, prettier self. But in reality I see no such country of significant size.

 

[russ_watters]

Sounds interesting - I might try to read it. My gut tells me, though, that the reason capitalism succeeded in the West and failed in the East shouldn't really be much of a mystery: communists and dictators have been significantly less than enthusiastic in their implementations of it than Western governments have been.

 

[edward]

China has already overtaken the USA in manufacturing. People who don't think so simply are not looking. Buy a box of nails at Home Depot and read the box. Buy a Thomasville cherry wood bedroom suite for $5000, that too is also made in china. Once those factories leave they are not coming back. In addition to losing manufacturing jobs, we eventually will lose the engineers who design robotic assembly lines.

World Rankings

China 1 displaced the United States as the world’s largest
manufacturing nation in 2010 and widened its lead
in 2011, according to recently published data from the
United Nations. Manufacturing value-added in China
totaled $2.35 trillion in 2011 while U.S. manufacturing
value-added was $1.90 trillion. 2 China accounted
for 20.7 percent of world manufacturing in 2011, up
from 18.9 percent in 2010. While China’s importance in
global manufacturing increased, the U.S. share declined
from 18.4 percent in 2010 to 16.8 percent in 2011.
China’s ascent in manufacturing importance has been
in the making for decades.

https://www.mapi.net/system/files/PA-118_1.pdf

Major U.S. Retailers sell Furniture Made in China

Many of the major conventional furniture retailers in the U.S. sell furniture produced in China, including giants like Ashley Furniture, Ikea, Rooms to Go, Raymour & Flanigan, Ikea, Ethan Allan, and Havertys. The trend in modern furniture is exploding and companies like Pier Imports and Crate & Barrel are bringing in more and more contemporary furnishings.

http://lucullan.hubpages.com/hub/Furniture-Made-in-China-Busting-the-Myth-about-Poor-Quality

My wife and I recently purchased a Felicity Sunlit Cherry Bedroom Suite from Thomasville Furniture. Our Thomasville saleswoman had led us to believe that our Thomasville furniture would be made in North Carolina, but when it was delivered we discovered that it was all made in China.

http://www.ripoffreport.com/r/Thoma...Thomasville-Thomasville-North-Carolina-314108

In the automotive sector China is gaining market control of parts manufacture. That is both OEM and replacement parts.

The U.S. auto-parts trade deficit with the world has increased 65.4 percent between 2009 and 2010, reaching $31.2 billion. The U.S. auto-parts trade deficit with China reached $9.1 billion in 2010 (accounting for 29.3 percent of the total U.S. auto-parts trade deficit, Figure C). China’s share of the U.S. auto-parts trade deficit has increased faster than any other country’s share since 2007 (an increase of 5.8 percentage points in three years). U.S. auto parts makers are thus directly threated by rapidly growing imports of auto-parts from China, which benefited from $27.5 billion in subsidies between 2001 and 2010. Chinese auto-parts makers also benefit from China’s illegal currency manipulation, which reduces the cost of Chinese auto parts by an additional 25 to 30 percent.

http://www.epi.org/publication/bp336-us-china-auto-parts-industry/