When will China overtake the U.S, economically?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the question of when China might overtake the United States economically, exploring various estimates and the implications of such a transition. Participants touch on economic indicators, disparities within China, and the impact of manufacturing and military spending on the U.S. economy.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants inquire about estimates for when China will surpass the U.S. economically and whether countries are preparing for this shift.
  • Observations are made about economic disparities in China, particularly in urban areas where wealth contrasts sharply with poverty.
  • Participants discuss GDP figures, noting that while China's economy is growing, the U.S. still has a significantly larger nominal GDP and higher per capita GDP.
  • Concerns are raised about the loss of the U.S. manufacturing base and its implications for economic stability and job creation.
  • Some argue that military spending does not contribute positively to long-term economic growth compared to investments in infrastructure.
  • There are discussions about the relationship between manufacturing, innovation, and intellectual property, particularly in the context of China's ambitions.
  • Participants express differing views on the impact of the current credit system on small businesses and job creation, with some suggesting that it favors larger corporations.
  • The potential negative effects of outsourcing low-skill jobs to countries with cheaper labor are highlighted, along with concerns about the widening gap between rich and poor in the U.S.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express multiple competing views regarding the economic trajectories of China and the U.S., with no consensus on when or if China will overtake the U.S. economically. There are also differing opinions on the implications of military spending and the role of manufacturing in the economy.

Contextual Notes

Limitations include varying definitions of economic dominance, reliance on different GDP calculations, and the complexities of measuring the impact of military spending versus other forms of investment.

  • #91
MarcoD said:
Goldman Sachs published that China will probably overtake the US in 2025, and the BRIC countries will overtake the G7 in 2050.

Yeah, I wouldn't put much stock into such predictions though. There's just too many unforseen variables. I also wonder how the economies of Russia and Iran (of the BRIC) are supposed to match the G7. Russia is in a state of decline, not growing prosperity. They are losing people in large numbers and their economy is not modernizing. They are a quasi-fascist state run by the Russian mafia. And Iran is not a bastion of market capitalism.

As mentioned before, China I think is a bubble waiting to experience a pop (they will at some point). Also as mentioned, I wonder if they really have surpassed Japan, as much of their "GDP" I do not think is real GDP.
 
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  • #92
I think the I in BRIC is India, not Iran. I think it's Brazil,Russia,India,China.
 
  • #93
phyzguy said:
I think the I in BRIC is India, not Iran. I think it's Brazil,Russia,India,China.

CRIPES, yeah, I should've realized that, I don't know why I wrote Iran Thanks for the correction.
 
  • #94
mheslep said:
No, apples with apples. Comparing 1.2 billion people to 300 million people collectively is the apples to oranges comparison.

If you want to compare per capacity rate, USA isn't the king pin anymore
 
  • #95
Hells said:
If you want to compare per capacity rate, USA isn't the king pin anymore

Rate of what?
 
  • #96
Dose it matter? our life is to short the best thing you can do with it is to live it to your potential, have fun or help other peoples.
 
  • #98
Willowz said:
What are the estimates when this will roughly happen? Are countries preparing for this transition?

This article prompted this question. And the recession.

One thing that makes me cringe is how in the future the blame game between Dems and Reps will grow much more heated.

You can always just do a quick and dirty estimation yourself.

It really depends upon two things:
1. The annual growth rate of the US.
2. The annual growth rate of China.

If we assume a annual growth rate of 2% for the US and 7% for China:
15*e^(t*0.02) - 7*e^(t*0.07) = 0

t=15.24 yearsIn reality, China is almost certainly cooking its books.

So my prediction is reality will catch up there sooner or later, and a loss of confidence in the Chinese economy will follow.
 
  • #99
China overtakes US in number of patent filings
http://news.yahoo.com/china-overtakes-us-number-patent-filings-142532551--finance.html
GENEVA (AP) — GENEVA — The U.N. says the Chinese filed the most patent applications in the world last year, overtaking the U.S. for the first time.

The U.N.'s World Intellectual Property Organization says China's patent office received 526,412 applications in 2011, ahead of the United States with 503,582 filings.
Next year will be interesting.
 
  • #100
Michael Pettis challenged the popular economics rag, The Economist, to a contest pitting the two's Chinese GDP forecast.

I believe some people from The Economist do read my blogs from time to time and so I am wondering whether we could set up a friendly bet — not for too large stakes, please, since my resources are limited, but just so that we can both keep up a sporting interest in the economic news over the next few years. I would like to bet that by the end of 2018 China will not be the largest economy in the world.

http://www.mpettis.com/2012/03/26/i-would-like-to-make-a-bet-with-the-economist/

I like what Pettis has to say. His arguments for a need to rebalance the Chinese economy make sense in light of growing inflation (real estate especially) and declining demand for commodities such as iron, copper and aluminum. He says the next two years will be marked by declining commodity prices which could hurt many Chinese companies, particularly those who stock large surpluses of commodities (like copper).
 
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  • #101
China to overhaul struggling solar panel industry
http://news.yahoo.com/china-overhaul-struggling-solar-panel-industry-030950006--finance.html

Beijing will encourage mergers, reduce government support for the industry and block local leaders from supporting domestic producers, said a Cabinet statement late Wednesday. It said some producers might be allowed to go bankrupt.

The statement gave no details but it affirmed that the communist government sees solar power as one of a series of "strategic emerging industries" that it wants to develop.
. . . .
The industry has piled up debts of some $17.5 billion, according to a report earlier this year by Maxim Group, a New York financial firm.
 
  • #102
DrClapeyron said:
Michael Pettis challenged the popular economics rag, The Economist, to a contest pitting the two's Chinese GDP forecast.



http://www.mpettis.com/2012/03/26/i-would-like-to-make-a-bet-with-the-economist/

I like what Pettis has to say. His arguments for a need to rebalance the Chinese economy make sense in light of growing inflation (real estate especially) and declining demand for commodities such as iron, copper and aluminum. He says the next two years will be marked by declining commodity prices which could hurt many Chinese companies, particularly those who stock large surpluses of commodities (like copper).

I recently discovered his blog and after spending time in China I strongly agree with it. Their economy is hugely out of whack and it's only a matter of time before it comes crashing down.
 
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  • #103
China sees a huge gap between the rich and the poor, they have inflated values including a their real estate market that is building ghost towns, they are permanently in a state of being unstable and they rely on an enormous gap between reality and what they are trying to tell the people that will eventually boil over. By 2030 I doubt there will be much left of our China, it will have gone through a period of civil unrest and economic collapse. I would imagine it will be taking the Euro down with it and it will reassure for the world that America is indeed the world's only superpower, probably a fact for at least another 75 years after that.
Japan, Turkey, whatever survives the destruction of the EU, India, Brazil, and Russia are probably the only powers that will come close to the US in that period of time.
 
  • #104
willbell said:
China sees a huge gap between the rich and the poor, they have inflated values including a their real estate market that is building ghost towns, they are permanently in a state of being unstable and they rely on an enormous gap between reality and what they are trying to tell the people that will eventually boil over. By 2030 I doubt there will be much left of our China, it will have gone through a period of civil unrest and economic collapse. I would imagine it will be taking the Euro down with it and it will reassure for the world that America is indeed the world's only superpower, probably a fact for at least another 75 years after that.
Japan, Turkey, whatever survives the destruction of the EU, India, Brazil, and Russia are probably the only powers that will come close to the US in that period of time.

Right. I am CERTAIN that China is corrupt as hell, that much of their investment is foolish and/or phony, that the statistics they release are false, that those in charge don't know what they are doing, and the whole propped-up mess will crash. So projections of their current rate of growth will not be realized.

As you will notice, economic reporting has two states. 1) Everything is perfect and there will never be a problem again because economics/politics has been solved, and 2) there is no hope and current problems will continue forever. I guess this satisfies the human need for drama.

Right now the press has been getting mileage out of the Foreign Threat. They've been doing this my entire life and surely will continue to do so after I'm gone. Many people seem to need an enemy. As long as they are going to have an enemy, at least it isn't a domestic one.

What I find interesting is that the entire idea of a nation is rather new. Before that it was all tribal, with membership depending on ethnicity. Areas of mixed ethnicity were always a problem. A nation is determined by arbitrary geographic borders with membership is determined by various rules, the base rule being that anyone born within the borders is a citizen. It's a good idea. Israel and Somalia still work on the tribal model. Need I say more?

Anyway, what was the first nation by this definition? I don't know.

Albert Einstein renounced his German citizenship and moved to Switzerland in his youth. He had no passport or nationality for years. I guess people didn't take that stuff as seriously as they do now.
 
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  • #105
ImaLooser said:
Right. I am CERTAIN that China is corrupt as hell, that much of their investment is foolish and/or phony, that the statistics they release are false, that those in charge don't know what they are doing, and the whole propped-up mess will crash. So projections of their current rate of growth will not be realized.
Forgive me but are you being sarcastic or just emphasizing the word certain, sorry if it is a stupid question but you understand if sarcasm doesn't carry well in written word. :redface:
 
  • #106
willbell said:
Forgive me but are you being sarcastic or just emphasizing the word certain, sorry if it is a stupid question but you understand if sarcasm doesn't carry well in written word. :redface:


Emphasizing. There is zero chance that current trends will continue without interruption for 18 years.
 
  • #107
http://news.yahoo.com/china-firm-acquire-major-african-052727505.html
BEIJING (AP) -- A privately owned Chinese company is finalizing the acquisition of an Australian mining firm that controls a major iron ore mine in west Africa, a move that would give China a stronger role in setting global iron ore prices, China's official Xinhua News Agency reported Saturday.
. . . .
Hanlong is seeking a partnership with Chinese state-owned companies and investing $5 billion to develop the Mbalam project and to build a 550-kilometer (340-mile) railway and a shipping port, Xinhua said.. . . .
Ostensibly, the railroad and port will be built under Chinese supervision and using Chinese made steel and equipment.

Last time I checked, 9 of 10 largest global mining and mineral companies were non-US (majority BRIC, IIRC), and they were developing iron and other metals used in construction and structural materials.
 
  • #108
ImaLooser said:
Right. I am CERTAIN that China is corrupt as hell, that much of their investment is foolish and/or phony, that the statistics they release are false, that those in charge don't know what they are doing, and the whole propped-up mess will crash. So projections of their current rate of growth will not be realized.

Yup, it took them a while to learn how other countries play the "world economics game", but they figured it out eventually.
 

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