When Will the Big Crunch Happen According to Current Models?

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Current cosmological models, particularly the Lambda Cold Dark Matter (LCDM) model, suggest that the universe is expanding at an accelerating rate, making scenarios like the Big Crunch increasingly unlikely. The consensus is that the universe will continue to expand indefinitely, leading to a Big Freeze or heat death rather than a collapse. The Big Rip, which posits an increase in dark energy density, is also considered unlikely under current observations. There is no universally accepted timeline for these events, but some models estimate heat death could occur in around 14 billion years. Overall, the prevailing view is that the universe's expansion will not reverse, eliminating the possibility of a Big Crunch.
  • #31
Thanks for the link. I'm going to need to examine it in more detail later on. Easter dinner and all with the family
 
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  • #32
Nabeshin said:
Well there do exist solutions such as Schwarzschild-deSitter (or just a schwarzschild in a general FRW background) in which you can effectively see the effects of the large-scale expansion of the universe on the local geodesics around the black hole, i.e. on orbits of bodies. Perturbatively, it just shows up as a small extra force which serves to slightly enlarge the orbits.
Indeed.

To me it seems logical that if there is an expansion it must apply to all scales.
 
  • #33
Well expansion does apply at all scales. If you were to work out the amount of vacuum or dark energy. You will quickly realize that per cubic meter the amount of energy is extremely small. A rough estimate is 6*10-10. joules sorry for the long hand on my phone atm.

This low energy density is easily countered by gravity. the statement that expansion does not apply in graviationally bound regions is somewhat misleading. The cosmological constant applies everywhere.

however gravity can over power the low energy density of the cosmolical constant.
However in the example above it does have small influences even in gravitationally bound regions.
 
  • #34
Mordred said:
the statement that expansion does not apply in graviationally bound regions is somewhat misleading.
I would say it is simply wrong.

Mordred said:
however gravity can over power the low energy density of the cosmolical constant.
I think the result will be a non-linear combination of gravity and a little bit of expansion, but the effect will not be zero.
 
  • #35
Correct there is always some influence
 
  • #36
Passionflower said:
I think the result will be a non-linear combination of gravity and a little bit of expansion, but the effect will not be zero.

But I do not think there is 'expansion' per se inside the gravitationally bound structures - just a small constant effect of the cosmological constant that subtracts from the overall binding effect of gravity. Hence slightly larger orbits, but not 'expanding' orbits caused by cosmic expansion. Or do I have it wrong?

I read something along these lines in Carrera and Giulini, http://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/0602098
 
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  • #37
Thats a good article. I've never seen any research to suggest expansion inside gravitationally bound regions other than orbital effects.
 
  • #38
Jorrie said:
I read something along these lines in Carrera and Giulini, http://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/0602098

According to their eq. 86, appendix A.1, the approximate dynamic effect of cosmic expansion \ddot{r}=\frac{\ddot{a}}{a}r depends on the acceleration and not on the rate of expansion. So in early times (decelerating expansion), the dynamic effect on structures would have been in the direction to the structure center, like gravity, i.e. marginally assisting clustering. During the second half of cosmic history it must have been against gravity, gradually growing to a constant positive value in the future.

If taken at face value, \ddot{r} must still be marginally increasing today and hence there must be a very small expansion effect on clusters (or at least on superclusters) going on. Only of academic interest, I guess.
 
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