News Predict the US Presidential Election Winner!

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The discussion centers on predictions for the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election, with participants debating the likelihood of George W. Bush versus John Kerry winning. Many contributors express skepticism about Kerry's chances, citing issues like the economy and the Iraq War as factors that could favor Bush. Some argue that the Republican Party is more effective at campaigning, while others criticize the Democratic Party for failing to present a strong candidate. The influence of media and campaign strategies, particularly the impact of the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth on Kerry's image, is also a significant point of contention. Participants highlight the challenges Kerry faces in gaining traction against an incumbent president and suggest that the Democrats need to reevaluate their approach to win future elections. The conversation reflects a mix of political analysis and personal opinions on the candidates and their campaigns.

Who wins ?


  • Total voters
    24
  • Poll closed .
  • #31
f Bush wins, it will have nothing to do with with what right or wrong with either party. It's just that the Republicans are far better at campaigning (and the people are far too naive), and that's what usually counts.

Gokul, you're supposed to wait until AFTER the election before posting sour grapes. (Similar things were said after Clinton was elected.)

In my opinion, the Democrats simply picked the wrong man. They thought that if they propped up a war hero against Bush the country would just swoon. The Swift Boat Veterans took care of that. Love 'em or hate 'em, the Swift Boat Veterans have decided this election because they rained on the only parade Kerry offered the public.

Could it all change? Sure. All the Democrats have to do is wake the dead.
 
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  • #32
JohnDubYa said:
Gokul, you're supposed to wait until AFTER the election before posting sour grapes. (Similar things were said after Clinton was elected.)

In my opinion, the Democrats simply picked the wrong man. They thought that if they propped up a war hero against Bush the country would just swoon. The Swift Boat Veterans took care of that. Love 'em or hate 'em, the Swift Boat Veterans have decided this election because they rained on the only parade Kerry offered the public.

Could it all change? Sure. All the Democrats have to do is wake the dead.

Well DubYa, you do have a strong grasp of situation. It doesn't matter that those few Swift-Boat Veterans when interview contradicted their claims of first hand information ie, "..I know, I was there." No one is listening. This is why I say that the Republicans are going to win...they have NO scrupples or moral compunction about lying in order to win the White House for four more years... the Swift-Boat Veteran's for Truth is akin to say... The Democratic-Republic of East Berlin, or the Peoples Democratic-Republic of North Korea... I have to almost admire the Swift boat boys... all one has to do is put it on television...because it's negative, people WILL believe it...doesn't matter that it's lies, distortions of fact because of an agenda...they resented his testimony given to Congress when he returned from the War so they have masterfully put together their campaign of lies and misinformation to advance their agenda... the thing about conservatives is that they will allow you to say whatever you want so long as it supports their narrow points of view, hence, The Patriot Act...the shining example of the single greatest threat to the Bill of Rights since the days of J. Edgar Hoover. I don't understand their resentments toward Kerry... Kerry PAID THE PRICE to do what he did if he so chose... and he did not betray these Swift Boat liars... this latest bit about Kerry "...giving the Viet Cong for free what they were tortured for..." is sheer bull. Anyone who cares can investigate this, but like DubYa understands, they wont...it's just too much trouble to do that. So, the Republicans are the better at sacking and selling it... I wish the Dems would wake up and start fighting fire with fire. But alas, Kerry IS NOT the best choice to defeat this incumbant... Bush enjoys the home court advantage, most incumbants do. For myself, Edwards would have been the best and the brightest choice for the Dems... anyway, we shall see what transpires between now and November...it ain't over till its over!
 
  • #33
Well DubYa, you do have a strong grasp of situation. It doesn't matter that those few Swift-Boat Veterans when interview contradicted their claims of first hand information ie, "..I know, I was there." No one is listening. This is why I say that the Republicans are going to win...they have NO scrupples or moral compunction about lying in order to win the White House for four more years... the Swift-Boat Veteran's for Truth is akin to say... The Democratic-Republic of East Berlin, or the Peoples Democratic-Republic of North Korea...

Post a reasonable argument. Then I'll respond.
 
  • #34
JohnDubYa said:
Post a reasonable argument. Then I'll respond.

When a campaign is waged with half truths, outright lies and innuendo as in using Laci Peterson's name alongside John Kerry's in a Pro Bush commercial is NOT REASONABLE to this argument? That among ALL Swift-Boat Veterans for Truth who did grant interviews to the media contradicted their statements made in their commercials, they lied, plain and simple...that Bush claims that the war in Iraq makes America safe? I really don't depend on your response to vote in November. I know what I must do, and hope that your overall position that Bush WILL win will turn out to be incorrect. I've already supported YOUR contention that Bush will likely win. I am just calling it the way it is...he can't hope to win playing fair...he is just too slow to dare to attempt any live debates...so he hides behind his campaign of distortions and misinformation. The Republican SPIN on truth is really something to behold...they can sack and sell cow manure to cattle ranchers in Wyoming.
 
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  • #35
Now this is getting really close :rolleyes:
10 to 11 right now. And it is more and more significant.

We only succeded to prove that nobody can tell.
 
  • #36
FaverWillets, the Swift Boat Vets have made an impact because of the publicity they generated, but their actual part in the campaign is a tiny fraction of what Kerry is getting from similar groups (by that, I mean $$$-wise). The difference (imo) is the way the Kerry ads are presented - putting out an ad of the Statue of Liberty wearing a black hood as MoveOn.org did offends everyone and doesn't help Kerry out at all. The media reports on those ads were limited to discussing how repulsive they were - not whether the content had any merrit.
 
  • #37
When a campaign is waged with half truths, outright lies and innuendo as in using Laci Peterson's name alongside John Kerry's in a Pro Bush commercial is NOT REASONABLE to this argument?

John Kerry voted against the Unborn Victims Of Violence Act (UVVA), of which Laci Peterson's murder was easily the most high-profile example. In fact, the bill was often called the Laci Peterson Law. To use her name in an advertisement is reasonable since the Lace Peterson Law is a perfectly valid campaign issue.

That is why I said earlier I would refuse to respond as long as you resorted to hyperbole. To suggest that the Swift Boat Veterans are analogous to Communist governments is not only strange, but unhelpful. Why not post what they said and their later comments that (supposedly) show they lied?


How is such hysteria going to further the discussion? Why not go ahead and use all-caps and multiple exclamation points? Might as well, since you have the ranting bit down pat.

As for lying, was John Kerry in Cambodia on Christmas Eve as he clearly stated in a previous interview?
 
  • #38
JohnDubYa said:
John Kerry voted against the Unborn Victims Of Violence Act (UVVA), of which Laci Peterson's murder was easily the most high-profile example. In fact, the bill was often called the Laci Peterson Law. To use her name in an advertisement is reasonable since the Lace Peterson Law is a perfectly valid campaign issue.

JohnDubYa's right.

Taking a pro-choice stance puts Kerry (and others) in a sticky situation on that law. You can't be pro-choice and support the UVVA law, since the whole premise for legalization of abortion is that the unborn have no rights. The alternative proposed by the pro-choice side really didn't fully cover the situation since, if the mother lives and the unborn child dies, you can't bring murder charges (Kerry supported the pro-choice side's alternative).

A bit heavy on the symbolism and (arguably) an over simplification of the issue, but the ad does at least pertain to a valid issue.
 
  • #39
JohnDubYa said:
To suggest that the Swift Boat Veterans are analogous to Communist governments is not only strange, but unhelpful.

I believe Faver was trying to point out a seeming contradiction in the name (SBV for "Truth"), just as North Korea is anything but Democratic, but still goes by the name "Dem." People's Rep. of Korea.
 
  • #40
BobG said:
A bit heavy on the symbolism and (arguably) an over simplification of the issue, but the ad does at least pertain to a valid issue.

It's brilliant strategy. An overwhelming majority of the population are Laci sympathizers, and so by making Kerry her enemy, makes Kerry everybody's enemy.

Also, I'd add an 'un' before your 'arguably', but so is the matter provided in any 30 or 60 second commercial.
 
  • #41
Speaking of Kerry, I think he should fire his campaign manager for emphasizing his Vietnam service. It certainly didn't help his cause, it did more damage to his reputation and the perception of voters.

As far as next next election goes. I would like to see Giuliani and Hillary Clinton duke it out.
 
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  • #42
Battle of the Titans

The_Professional Speaking of Kerry, I think he should fire his campaign manager for emphasizing his Vietnam service. It certainly didn't help his cause, it did more damage to his reputation and the perception of voters.

As far as next next election goes. I would like to see Guiliani and Hillary Clinton duke it out.
Yesterday 04:53 PM


That would be like... Godzilla meets King Kong! It would make for one of the most interesting Presidential elections in decades...hope it happens.
 
  • #43
FaverWillets said:
That would be like... Godzilla meets King Kong! It would make for one of the most interesting Presidential elections in decades...hope it happens.
You must be drinking too much tea. It would be Godzilla (Guiliani) or King Kong (McCain) vs. Cannon fodder.
 
  • #44
Godzilla meets King Kong!

I would rather look at King Kong than Hillary.
 
  • #45
JohnDubYa said:
I would rather look at King Kong than Hillary.


LOL Well, I DO stand corrected on those choices...though, Hillary thinks very fast on her feet, as a debater should would make mince meat of her adversary...it would Gulliani or McCain to level the field in a debate against her..debating is not Bush's forte, nor was it Gore's in 2000.

And, we can't have McCain head to head with Guilliani now can we? By the way, there has never been a former mayor of NYC ever to run for President and win. Guilliani could become the exception. The 2008 election year will be a welcome site to this current mess.
 
  • #46
The_Professional said:
Speaking of Kerry, I think he should fire his campaign manager for emphasizing his Vietnam service. It certainly didn't help his cause, it did more damage to his reputation and the perception of voters.

As far as next next election goes. I would like to see Giuliani and Hillary Clinton duke it out.
I thought I heard that Kerry has now hired Michael Dukakis' former campaign manager... oiy vayyyy... Isn't that like hiring the former captain of the Exxon Valdez to teach new students how to pilot super tankers? { this actually did happen by the way...and after he grounded the tanker while drunk on his butt.}
 
  • #47
Well, we don't have any footage of Kerry driving a tank. So it makes sense I guess.
 
  • #48
JohnDubYa said:
Well, we don't have any footage of Kerry driving a tank. So it makes sense I guess.


It appears that his Swift Boat has capsized too. Like a monkey with a football...! The Dems are truly a mess...have been since Lyndon Banes started his illegal war in '65.
 
  • #49
I wouldn't let JFK off the hook regarding Vietnam either.
 
  • #50
FaverWillets said:
When a campaign is waged with half truths, outright lies and innuendo as in using Laci Peterson's name alongside John Kerry's in a Pro Bush commercial is NOT REASONABLE to this argument? That among ALL Swift-Boat Veterans for Truth who did grant interviews to the media contradicted their statements made in their commercials, they lied, plain and simple...that Bush claims that the war in Iraq makes America safe? I really don't depend on your response to vote in November. I know what I must do, and hope that your overall position that Bush WILL win will turn out to be incorrect. I've already supported YOUR contention that Bush will likely win. I am just calling it the way it is...he can't hope to win playing fair...he is just too slow to dare to attempt any live debates...so he hides behind his campaign of distortions and misinformation. The Republican SPIN on truth is really something to behold...they can sack and sell cow manure to cattle ranchers in Wyoming.

While JohnDubya is right about the Laci Peterson ad, but there's a big difference between that ad and the Swift Boat ads.

The Laci Peterson angle lures you into the room with the shiny coin and asks:

"Surely you've seen this coin before, haven't you? Are you sure? Maybe you've only looked at the other side."

And then shows you it's the other side of the pro-choice coin.

"Your choice. You have to choose one or the other. You can't choose both."

The key is that it's the same coin.

The Swift Boat ads lure you into the room with a fake coin (very fake, in this case, since just about everything they say is a blatant lie), then sweep it away under the desk and lead you to the other coin:

"This is what we really wanted to show you. See, isn't this coin a lot more interesting?"

A tactic more fitting for the Moonies roaming college campuses back in the 70's than for a presidential campaign.
 
  • #51
BobG said:
The Swift Boat ads lure you into the room with a fake coin (very fake, in this case, since just about everything they say is a blatant lie), then sweep it away under the desk and lead you to the other coin:

"This is what we really wanted to show you. See, isn't this coin a lot more interesting?"

A tactic more fitting for the Moonies roaming college campuses back in the 70's than for a presidential campaign.

Exactly which statements have they made that you're claiming to be a "blatant lie"?
 
  • #52
Right on, kat. We have given the SBV's a free pass on this allegation for too long.

And did Kerry lie about his Holiday in Cambodia (with apologies to the Dead Kennedys, who are probably voting for Kerry)?
 

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