Who's better at playing poker on average?

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The discussion centers around the comparative advantages of individuals with a master's in probability or statistics versus a physicist specializing in string theory in the context of poker. It is argued that while academic knowledge in statistics may provide some insight, the essential skills for poker success lie more in psychological aspects such as reading opponents and bluffing. Many participants emphasize that poker is not purely a game of luck but involves significant mathematical elements, particularly in calculating pot odds and probabilities based on visible community cards. However, some contend that the psychological component, including the ability to mask one's own reactions and interpret others', is critical. The conversation also touches on the misconception that card counting, relevant in games like blackjack, applies to poker, clarifying that poker's dynamics differ significantly. Ultimately, the consensus suggests that while mathematical skills can aid in poker, the ability to read players and manage psychological tactics is paramount for success.
  • #91
Anonymous217 said:
Game theory and etc. makes little use in an actual game of Texas Hold'em.

Game theory can be used to determine an optimum bluffing frequency vs a known opponent to minimize his EV. Of course at the table you don't sit crunching numbers to do this, it's played by feel to pick your spots, but away from the table you can work out how often you should be bluffing.
 
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  • #92
But how often would you be able to "work it out" when the opponent isn't known, which would usually be the case?
 
  • #93
xxChrisxx said:
Game theory can be used to determine an optimum bluffing frequency...

Exactly, and this is precisely why physicists have made some serious (millions of dollars) in this game. Probability is everything in poker, but about the other players, not just the cards.
 
  • #94
mugaliens said:
Exactly, and this is precisely why physicists have made some serious (millions of dollars) in this game. Probability is everything in poker, but about the other players, not just the cards.
Do you have any reliable information to support that statement? Which three top winners in Texas hold-em are physicists? Any?
 
  • #95
jarednjames said:
I think Evo is very much right.

Of course reading people in big games is important. But the things you would be looking for are a lot more subtle and dificult to spot. Which is why you need to be good at it.

Do you think big time players wear the ridiculous sunglasses just to look cool? Of course not. Eyes can be one of the biggest give aways.

And why do the biggest time players not wear sunglasses?

It's pretty obvious that the discussion being held in this topic are between people that actually know about "Hold'em" and those that are thinking about a completely different game (ie jared thinking about card counting.., evo thinking about 5-card draw), and probably do not even know how Hold'em is actually played.
 
  • #96
Anonymous217 said:
But how often would you be able to "work it out" when the opponent isn't known, which would usually be the case?

You can either start with the assumption that the player plays good 'textbook' poker. Or you can assume that the player is dreadful. At low stakes I assume everyone is bad because a good player is easy to spot quickly.

As you play you then learn how competent that player is, you try to build a mental picture replacing the default with player specific information.

You only really need specific information on regulars, as they arw the successful players who are harder to beat. Fish are poor and are pretty easy to beat. I keep notes on and hand information and my general thoughts on regs. There are some I just won't play unless I'm looking to challenge myself because I know that they are better than me.

turbo said:
Do you have any reliable information to support that statement? Which three top winners in Texas hold-em are physicists? Any?

This is a slightly unfair response to his post. Poker isn't athletics, you can't really make a judgement on who 'the three top winners are'. How do you measure this? Cash game wins? Tournament wins in cash amount? Tournament cashes? WSOP bracelets won? You can be successful to the tune of millions without being recognised by the wider public (meaning no data on you)

On saying that I don't subscribe to the view that being a physicist/mathematician will help you any. Many physicisa are successful poker players. This is bacuse they are good poker players who just happen to be physicists.
 
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  • #97
ka0z said:
And why do the biggest time players not wear sunglasses?

It's pretty obvious that the discussion being held in this topic are between people that actually know about "Hold'em" and those that are thinking about a completely different game (ie jared thinking about card counting.., evo thinking about 5-card draw), and probably do not even know how Hold'em is actually played.

There are elements of reading people but it doesn't really involve "tells." For example, if I'm slow playing, and someone bets, I'll hesitate awhile before calling. I'm hoping he'll read this hesitation as deliberation on my part so that he'll keep betting and get pot committed.

As far as the guys you see on tv who wear sunglasses, it could be because they know they're bad with eyes, but I think it's just as likely to be fashion.

Sometimes, I go "yes!" when I get dealt a really good hand, so I guess that's a tell. But I also do it sometimes when I get bad hands...
 
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  • #98
ka0z said:
And why do the biggest time players not wear sunglasses?

None of those players wear glasses? That's a big claim I'm sure you're able to back up?

As per another post. You don't have to wear glasses and it's only if your eyes are a giveaway during your game. So no, not everyone has to.
It's pretty obvious that the discussion being held in this topic are between people that actually know about "Hold'em" and those that are thinking about a completely different game (ie jared thinking about card counting.., evo thinking about 5-card draw), and probably do not even know how Hold'em is actually played.

Covered much, much further back. Please read the older posts before you come out with this rubbish.

I do know how hold'em is played. Not my favourite game though.

I recommend you look back a few posts and realize that Hold'em wasn't specified until then. So five card draw was just as applicable.
 
  • #99
jarednjames said:
None of those players wear glasses? That's a big claim I'm sure you're able to back up?

As per another post. You don't have to wear glasses and it's only if your eyes are a giveaway during your game. So no, not everyone has to.

Covered much, much further back. Please read the older posts before you come out with this rubbish.

I do know how hold'em is played. Not my favourite game though.

I recommend you look back a few posts and realize that Hold'em wasn't specified until then. So five card draw was just as applicable.

I don't wish to bash you or anything but being vaguely aware of the rules and actually properly knowing them are two different things. The case in point is that you were unaware that the cards were shuffled after every hand. In all forms of poker the cards are shuffled.

Poker is not 3 card brag.
 
  • #100
xxChrisxx said:
I don't wish to bash you or anything but being vaguely aware of the rules and actually properly knowing them are two different things. The case in point is that you were unaware that the cards were shuffled after every hand. In all forms of poker the cards are shuffled.

An issue that was commented on and corrected on the first page. Have I made similar comments since? No. Do you disagree with my other posts? If so, why not post regarding the issue you have and explain why I am incorrect.

Probability debate aside, I have made one mistake. I accepted it and dealt with it. Does that have any effect on my other posts here? If you think so and have an issue just ignore me or as above, tell me why I'm wrong. But don't come here and imply I'm wrong because of that one issue.

So far, I've only seen two people in this thread I'd consider to have a sound knowledge of the game. Perhaps we should remove everyone else and just leave them discuss it?
 
  • #101
jarednjames said:
An issue that was commented on and corrected on the first page. Have I made similar comments since? No. Do you disagree with my other posts? If so, why not post regarding the issue you have and explain why I am incorrect.

Probability debate aside, I have made one mistake. I accepted it and dealt with it. Does that have any effect on my other posts here? If you think so and have an issue just ignore me or as above, tell me why I'm wrong. But don't come here and imply I'm wrong because of that one issue.

So far, I've only seen two people in this thread I'd consider to have a sound knowledge of the game.

It does affect the credibility of your knowledge for the game. If poker doesn't translate to Hold'em to you, then you're clearly out of touch with the current state of the game played.

And on the subject on sunglasses, Just take a look at most players on High Stake Poker, Poker After Dark, ie Phil Ivey, Tom Dwann, Daniel Negreanu, Peter Eastgate etcetc. If sunglasses were to give you a huge edge, then you would expect everyone to wear them, but they don't. It's just a matter of preference and habit to wear what they're comfortable with.
 
  • #102
ka0z said:
It does affect the credibility of your knowledge for the game. If poker doesn't translate to Hold'em to you, then you're clearly out of touch with the current state of the game played.

Where did I say Hold'em isn't poker or the like?

So would I be right in assuming you disagree with every other post I've made? If that's the case, perhaps you could point out exactly where I'm wrong and help me learn.
And on the subject on sunglasses, Just take a look at most players on High Stake Poker, Poker After Dark, ie Phil Ivey, Tom Dwann, Daniel Negreanu, Peter Eastgate etcetc. If sunglasses were to give you a huge edge, then you would expect everyone to wear them, but they don't. It's just a matter of preference and habit to wear what they're comfortable with.

I never said they gave you a "huge edge", just that eyes can be a big giveaway and people wear them to prevent this. Don't know where you're getting me claiming they give everyone a huge edge?
 
  • #103
Some people just wear sunglasses as a bit of insurance. That is, why WOULDN'T you wear sunglasses if you're comfortable playing with them? It's not saying that the players have clear cut tells without sunglasses, but their reasoning is that they might as well put them on just in case. Take Chris Ferguson for example. He clearly doesn't need sunglasses and yet he wears them simply as a preference.Also with sunglasses, you can look at things without having other players know you're looking there. You can be facing downwards towards the cards for example, but actually be glancing at your opponent to watch his expressions. It really makes little to no difference though.

And they're right. Jarednjames, although you only made one "mistake" in this topic, it makes one curious on to how much you really know about the game, which resulted in the criticism of your post where you claimed that you do know how to play Hold'em.
 
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  • #104
Anonymous217 said:
Some people just wear sunglasses as a bit of insurance. That is, why WOULDN'T you wear sunglasses if you're comfortable playing with them? It's not saying that the players have clear cut tells without sunglasses, but their reasoning is that they might as well put them on just in case. Take Chris Ferguson for example. He clearly doesn't need sunglasses and yet he wears them simply as a preference.Also with sunglasses, you can look at things without having other players know you're looking there. You can be facing downwards towards the cards for example, but actually be glancing at your opponent to watch his expressions. It really makes little to no difference though.

And they're right. Jarednjames, although you only made one "mistake" in this topic, it makes one curious on to how much you really know about the game, which resulted in the criticism of your post where you claimed that you do know how to play Hold'em.
Actually, the pupils can dilate or contract depending on emotions. My company put me through a few courses on how to "read people" because I was in technical sales dealing with multimillion dollar contracts. The pupils were a big one to watch, as were subtle voice changes, posture, fingers, feet, tilt of head, repeated movements. How to detect slight changes in the voice. Persiration, breathing, facial coloring. Quite interesting. These skills of observation can be used quite effectively in poker.
 
  • #105
Evo said:
Actually, the pupils can dilate or contract depending on emotions. My company put me through a few courses on how to "read people" because I was in technical sales dealing with multimillion dollar contracts. The pupils were a big one to watch, as were subtle voice changes, posture, fingers, feet, tilt of head, repeated movements. How to detect slight changes in the voice. Persiration, breathing, facial coloring. Quite interesting. These skills of observation can be used quite effectively in poker.

I think were all getting too hung up on the eyes and sunglasses to be honest.

There is no doubt they are a factor in live games. The point is its not the be all and end all.

The beauty of poker is that at face value its a very simple game, yet can have an unrivalled depth.
 
  • #106
Anonymous217 said:
And they're right. Jarednjames, although you only made one "mistake" in this topic, it makes one curious on to how much you really know about the game, which resulted in the criticism of your post where you claimed that you do know how to play Hold'em.

First issue aside, please, do tell what my mistakes in previous posts were. I will happily respond to criticism but to blankly say "you are to be ignored because of one mistake" does not work. Whether in this thread or any other one here.

If you can give me reason beyond doubt that my latter posts are incorrect or irrelevant, and as such should not be included in the thread I will happily back down.

As I've asked previously, do any persons involved in the last few posts completely disagree with my previous posts regarding poker?
 
  • #107
jarednjames said:
First issue aside, please, do tell what my mistakes in previous posts were. I will happily respond to criticism but to blankly say "you are to be ignored because of one mistake" does not work. Whether in this thread or any other one here.

there is no need to be so defensive. It's just that it was such a colossal error that it's impossible to ignore. And calls into question just how much you have played any form of poker.

I've been posting on my phone so its hard to review posts and respond. But its not a case of 'mistakes' you are making, as what is important in poker is subjective. What you are thinking is important shows no experience playing poker.

As I've asked previously, do any persons involved in the last few posts completely disagree with my previous posts regarding poker?

Not completely, but again your posts show a lack of experience with the game. Which is no bad thing, and nothing to be ashamed of. your subsequent posts try to make out that you do have some experience with the game 'holdem isn't my favourite' makes it sound like you pay quite a bit.

You are making classic statements that people who don't really play the game make.
 
  • #108
turbo-1 said:
Do you have any reliable information to support that statement?

I won about $118 last night in a min-stakes game, so if you keep pressing these buttons, turbo, you're going to blow my cover, dang it!

Time to get your own game on, Turbo.

Ante up, And WOW! So many words!

Stop talking, people. Observe. Listen, learn.

Poker's not about stats (at least mostly not about stats) but about ego. The less one has, the better, and the more calculating one's mind, the better. The best poker players have no ego, know the stats odds six ways to Sunday, and are able to adjust those odds on the fly based on their reads of the other players (that's the art part).
 
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