- #31
skilgannonau
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snoopies622 said:
Ok, I get it now. You meant 'fiction' literally as opposed to metaphorically. Cheers.
Why Are Economists Frequently Surprised by Government Data?
- Thread starter snoopies622
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Discussion Overview
The discussion revolves around the frequent discrepancies between economists' predictions and actual government economic data releases, particularly regarding job growth figures. Participants explore the reliability of economic forecasting, the methodologies used by economists, and the implications of these predictions in the context of media reporting.
Discussion Character
- Debate/contested
- Exploratory
- Technical explanation
Main Points Raised
- Some participants express skepticism about the predictive accuracy of economists, comparing economics to astrology in terms of reliability.
- Others argue that the media often misrepresents economists' predictions by using vague terms like "economists were surprised," suggesting a need for more precise language that reflects the nature of the predictions.
- A participant notes that economists typically provide educated guesses based on consensus, with the expectation that job growth would be around the replacement rate of 130,000 new jobs, but actual figures can vary significantly.
- There is a suggestion that economists would benefit from presenting predictions as ranges rather than single numbers, which could better capture uncertainty.
- Some participants inquire about the specific models used by economists for predictions, drawing parallels to weather forecasting and expressing interest in understanding these methodologies.
- One participant highlights the complexity of economic modeling, noting the influence of various unpredictable factors, including public sentiment and political affiliations, on economic outcomes.
Areas of Agreement / Disagreement
Participants generally agree that there is a lack of clarity and precision in how economists communicate their predictions, but there is no consensus on the reliability of economic forecasting or the appropriateness of current methodologies.
Contextual Notes
Limitations in the discussion include the absence of specific economic models referenced by participants, the variability in predictions based on differing methodologies, and the influence of political beliefs on economic interpretations.
Who May Find This Useful
This discussion may be of interest to those studying economics, media reporting on economic data, or individuals curious about the complexities of economic forecasting and its implications.