I posted some stuff on physics forum on belt drive versus chain vs gear drive for the camshaft a while back. It dealt in depth with parasitic horse power. Do a search and look it up. From an OEM point of view, belts have evolved to the point that they are pretty much bullet proof. The cost of a belt , pulleys and a belt tensioner are super cheap compared to cost of manufacture a gear drive. Having run gear drives on the cam shaft the noise is always there from day one. Not a problem for a 600 hp drag car but on a family grocery getter, big problem. You also pick up induced harmonics that can impact on longevity of the engine over time. Belts are naturally sound deadening so its one huge factor on the final decision. So look at it from cost to manufacture, over all assembly time, long term maintenance, drive quality (noise)...