Why Did Reddit Trigger a GameStop Stock Surge?

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Gamestop's stock price skyrocketed from $20 to $350 in a matter of weeks, largely due to a coordinated buying effort by Reddit users who aimed to counteract bearish hedge fund positions. This surge has resulted in significant losses for hedge funds while generating paper profits for retail investors. Despite the excitement, concerns remain about the long-term viability of Gamestop as a company, which continues to struggle financially. The situation has sparked discussions about market manipulation, with some arguing that the actions of Reddit traders could be seen as a form of "outsider trading" against traditional hedge fund practices. Overall, the episode highlights the tension between retail investors and institutional players in the stock market.
  • #601
BWV said:
12/31/19 market cap of US stocks was ~$34T, down 20% after the COVID crash that would be $27T, $100B is not that much money on that scale
There's no implication that stimulus-fueled retail investors somehow single-handedly lifted the U.S. stock market. I think the basic point was to just say they ploughed a decent amount of their stimmie checks into it is all. . .I think.
 
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  • #602
https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/07/investing/sec-retail-investors-payment-for-order-flow/index.html

New York (CNN Business)The agency that oversees Wall Street is weighing major changes to the way millions of everyday investors buy and sell stocks. That could be bad news for so-called free-trading apps like Robinhood as well as the lesser known firms that underpin their business models.

Today, when you buy or sell a stock on an app, the trade appears to be instantaneous. But beneath that simple buy/sell action is a complex web of Wall Street players exploiting tiny differences in price to rake in huge amounts of cash.

Here's how it works: When you tap buy or sell, Robinhood (or your broker of choice), takes your order to a firm known as a wholesaler or market maker — the middlemen who are supposed to get you the best price and who pay the brokers for the privilege of executing the trades. They typically make pennies off each transaction. . .

Gensler and other critics of the process say the brokers and market makers, such as Citadel Securities, have a clear conflict of interest, and that payment for order flow screws over everyday investors while amassing huge wealth for Wall Street firms.

Now, it appears that the SEC may roll out new rules as early as Wednesday, according to The Wall Street Journal, citing unnamed sources.
One proposed new rule, the paper said, would add more competition at the middleman level to ensure retail investors are actually getting the best prices. In that scenario, orders would be routed into auctions where trading firms would have to compete to execute them.
 
  • #603
BWV said:
Sure, but the -7.5% yield on 1-year TIPS makes the Treasury Direct site palatable
It's still pretty doggone annoying. I found a GreaseMonkey script which makes it a little less intolerable. It at least allows logins with a password manager.

I-bonds are at 9.62%. Worse case, interest gets reset to zero after 6 months and you dump the bond after a year, you get half that. Not a bad deal at all, assuming this fits into your financial goals.

T-bills are eating high-yield savings accounts for lunch at the moment. The best HYSA's are at 0.75-0.8% (neglecting teaser rates) Yesterday's 28-day T-bill auction was at 1.055%. A 28-day T-bill is a little less liquid, but not much. So yes, I am using the US Treasury as my personal bank.
 
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  • #604
Bitcoin - down 13% pre-market
Ethereum - down 17% pre-market

other cryptos crashing too ...
 
  • #605
kyphysics said:
Bitcoin - down 13% pre-market
Ethereum - down 17% pre-market

other cryptos crashing too ...
Stock market looks to be headed for a terrible day on top of a terrible couple of days ending last week. Right now DIA implies that the DJIA will open down 500 and the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are looking to do even worse percentage-wise.

Inflation is being blamed, probably rightly. With inflation the way it is, expectations for companies future profits have to be discounted

June 13, 2022 08:41 AM ET (BZ Newswire) -- Cryptocurrency


Cryptocurrency-related stocks, including Coinbase Global Inc (NASDAQ:COIN), Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:MARA) and Riot Blockchain Inc (NASDAQ:RIOT), are trading lower Monday amid a sharp decrease in the price of Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH).

Bitcoin, the world's oldest cryptocurrency, fell to its lowest levels since the end of 2020 on Monday. The crypto market seems to be falling amid a selloff in broader risk assets after traditional markets traded sharply lower last week in the wake of runaway inflation data.

Crypto lending company Celsius stopped withdrawals for its customers, which has sparked investor fear. Binance also paused Bitcoin withdrawals, citing a "stuck transaction."
 
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  • #606
phinds said:
Stock market looks to be headed for a terrible day
It's interesting that people think "up is good, down is bad", but it depends on whether you are buying or selling, doesn't it? And based on comments in this thread, it appears we have more buyers than sellers.

You can drive yourself batty worrying about unrealized gains and losses. But you can't buy a BigMac with unrealized gains.
 
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  • #607
kyphysics said:
Bitcoin - down 13% pre-market
Ethereum - down 17% pre-market

other cryptos crashing too ...
It's interesting that Bitcoin had a remarkably stable May, hovering around $30,000 almost the entire month. Sure, it had lots of $1,000+ swings, but it just went back and forth around $30k. It did something similar at $40k in April (the drop from $40k to $30k happened over just a few days in the first week in May). It looks like people are setting buying price targets at $10k increments, which hold it at that level until the buying runs-out. If that's the trend it could be dropping to $20k and then holding for the rest of the month...
 
  • #608
Well, getting close to $20K...I own zero BTC, so this would be pretty funny to me if it got to like $1,000.

Lots of stories of people going broke on crypto lately.

What do you all make of the argument that BTC is the real deal, while other cryptos are not (either Ponzi schemes and/or lack the truly decentralized and scarcity traits BTC has)?
 
  • #609
kyphysics said:
What do you all make of the argument that BTC is the real deal, while other cryptos are not (either Ponzi schemes and/or lack the truly decentralized and scarcity traits BTC has)?
I've heard crypto advocates argue the opposite, that other cryptos have features that address flaws in Bitcoin and so are "better". But none as far as I can tell address their schizophrenic nature and lack of reason for existing (not that I'm a general expert in crypto).
 
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  • #610
$20,800 for BTC... this is getting interesting!
 
  • #611
with Celsius, we have a good old fashioned bank failure - crypto, at best, has successfully recreated the instable private banking / money system of the 1800s. But this would be the most optimistic take on it, I personally believe this is just the early innings of a complete wipeout of bitcoin and other CCs. Celsius maybe is analogous to Bear Stearns failing, when Tether collapses later this year it will be analogous to Lehman, but there is no bailout and miners won't support the ecosystem if mining becomes unprofitable, so ISTM the collapse will be fast, not slow. The baseball card you overpaid for in the 90s can gather dust in your dresser forever, what happens to BTC when no one will spend the $ to maintain the network?
 
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  • #612
BWV said:
with Celsius, we have a good old fashioned bank failure - crypto, at best, has successfully recreated the instable private banking / money system of the 1800s. But this would be the most optimistic take on it, I personally believe this is just the early innings of a complete wipeout of bitcoin and other CCs. Celsius maybe is analogous to Bear Stearns failing, when Tether collapses later this year it will be analogous to Lehman, but there is no bailout and miners won't support the ecosystem if mining becomes unprofitable, so ISTM the collapse will be fast, not slow. The baseball card you overpaid for in the 90s can gather dust in your dresser forever, what happens to BTC when no one will spend the $ to maintain the network?
Celsius, and other platforms (such as popular exchanges), are indeed doing similar shady things than banks (no need to go back to the 1800's, just what is going on now). That's not cryptocurrencies though.

Interesting question about mining becoming unprofitable. If this occurs reasonably slowly, this won't be profitable on some hardware but still yes on other hardware. I am guessing that a sort of centralization might happen, a bit like it was the case with Monero a few months ago, where a single mining pool had over 50% of all mined blocks, i.e. the 51% attack was possible. People on reddit gathered up and started to ask people to mine themselves, or join other pools, eventually they were successful (current standing visible at https://pools.xmr.wiki/) to lower the dominance of that pool. People did that because they believed in Monero (and its future), as they were probably losing a little bit of money (could have been worse if the blockchain was "hacked", it wouldn't even be directly visible, which is terrible.).

I would like to see Tether fail sooner than later. Everyone knows it's going to collapse, at least on reddit.
 
  • #613
fluidistic said:
I would like to see Tether fail sooner than later. Everyone knows it's going to collapse, at least on reddit.

It's pretty tough to know. There is a decent chance it's fully backed, and a decent chance they stole a bunch of money, and a decent chance they over- risked their book and don't have enough capital in the down market.
 
  • #615
BWV said:
crypto implosion
In the words of Ralph Wiggum, "That's unpossible!" Isn't crypto supposed to be a stable store of value?

Seriously, if crypto can't make up its mind whether it is a currency or a casino, it deserves to crash. Indeed, For that matter, does the world really need two orders of magnitude more cyptocurrencies than national currencies? I would argue that 99.9% of them should fail.
 
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  • #616
Vanadium 50 said:
In the words of Ralph Wiggum, "That's unpossible!" Isn't crypto supposed to be a stable store of value?

Seriously, if crypto can't make up its mind whether it is a currency or a casino, it deserves to crash. Indeed, For that matter, does the world really need two orders of magnitude more cyptocurrencies than national currencies? I would argue that 99.9% of them should fail.
If diablo immortal needs eight different in-game currencies to manage their freemium offerings, why shouldn't the world writ large have 8,000 of them?
 
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  • #617
https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2022/06/16/nightcap-crypto-collapse-clip-orig-no.cnn

I must admit to some schadenfreude, but that's mostly because of the arrogance of cryptobros. The main reason, though, that I want to see crypto go to zero is that the sooner it goes to zero the fewer people will get hurt/less money will be lost. And on the other side of the...coin...I see the cryptobros as abusers. The next level up in the pyramid, trying to scam-up the level below them. So I have very little sympathy for the evangelists, but some for the followers.

Also, the commentator talks about the people being laid-off from Coinbase. Should I have sympathy for them? Ehh, I guess, maybe a little? If you're 27 and working for a startup you know the deal, don't you? High risk, high reward? I think those people are going to be ok, anyway. No, it's the friend of a friend who "invested" because a bro convinced them to that I have real sympathy for.
 
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  • #618
russ_watters said:
No, it's the friend of a friend who "invested" because a bro convinced them to that I have real sympathy for.


^^reposting from the Today I Learned thread
I think this is where position sizing matters a lot. I've heard a ton of people say to just take 1% of your assets/net worth and put it into bitcoin, b/c if it goes to the moon and turns out to be the greatest investment of all time, then you don't want to miss this. On the other hand, 1% won't kill you if it went to absolute 0.

You might say 1% wouldn't gain you much either. Fair enough. And you could also say that lots of early stage speculative companies might have just as equal of a chance of getting you 100x gains - like gene editing or artificial intelligence stocks - so why choose bitcoin (esp., after it's gone up so much already)...?

All fair questions/critiques. I'm just reporting what I've seen lots of people say.

The thing I don't understand with people investing in bitcoin or crypto is why they'd put like 50% or more of their assets into it. Some are just so crazed they are basically 100% into it. That is diversification suicide obviously...violates basic investing principles and common sense. I do feel bad, too, for those who were tricked into buying crypto by Ponzi scheme pumpers, but I still feel like many should have known not to put everything into it.

And, if someone was like 40 years old+ doing that?...really bad. I figure if you're in your 20's...maybe up through 30's even (at most) and don't have a lot of life experience with investing, okay, I could see you making this dumb mistake...40 y/o+...? should have known better. Why put ALL your eggs into this shaky asset?
 
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  • #619
Who thinks there should be mandatory investing curriculum in high school?
 
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  • #620
kyphysics said:
Who thinks there should be mandatory investing curriculum in high school?

It's not obvious that kind of thing will help.

https://money.usnews.com/money/personal-finance/family-finance/articles/2018-08-28/do-financial-literacy-courses-work

I think it would especially not have helped here. No 40 year old was going to learn about stablecoins in school. Most of the people putting all their money in these things are incapable of losing money, and I doubt a class 24 years ago would have helped him realize that this wasn't true.
 
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  • #621
Office_Shredder said:
It's not obvious that kind of thing will help.

https://money.usnews.com/money/personal-finance/family-finance/articles/2018-08-28/do-financial-literacy-courses-work

I think it would especially not have helped here. No 40 year old was going to learn about stablecoins in school. Most of the people putting all their money in these things are incapable of losing money, and I doubt a class 24 years ago would have helped him realize that this wasn't true.
Did you mean incapable of managing money instead for bolded part?

Just in news:
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/24/hac...n-in-crypto-from-harmonys-horizon-bridge.html

$100 million worth of crypto has been stolen in another major hack​

 
  • #622
speaking of these hacks...can someone explain why this seems more common vs. people hacking people's brokerage accounts (at like, say, Fidelity, Schwab, Vanguard, etc.)?

Is it easier to hack crypto accounts vs. brokerages and steal money? ...Is it due to a money trail that would take place with a brokerage...like needing to sell all that person's stocks, then transfer the cash to the thief's bank account, which would leave a trail?

Does this trail (if it is the main diff.) not happen with hacked crypto? I don't invest in it, so don't know how it works.
 
  • #623
Office_Shredder said:
I doubt a class 24 years ago would have helped him realize that this wasn't true.
I doubt it would as well. We have people who think they understand ginance based on raeding a few tweets and listening to a couple of podcasts.

Besides, what would this replace? Math? English? Cut a little out of every other course?

Furthermore, to channel my inner Montgomery Burns, why should I care? We have a bunch of people who think they are experts because of the aforementioned tweets and podcasts. I'm happy to be their counterparty. Excellent...
 
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  • #624
kyphysics said:
Who thinks there should be mandatory investing curriculum in high school?

Office_Shredder said:
It's not obvious that kind of thing will help.

I think it would especially not have helped here. No 40 year old was going to learn about stablecoins in school. Most of the people putting all their money in these things are incapable of losing money, and I doubt a class 24 years ago would have helped him realize that this wasn't true.

Vanadium 50 said:
I doubt it would as well.
I don't know, it might. To me it is more basic/broad than learning stablecoins specifically. And even such basic things as "don't be stupid", "don't be gullible", "if it sounds too good to be true it probably is" and "you're an adult now, start acting like it" are things a lot of people need to hear/get.

However, this specific case reminds me of an anecdote in a book I've talked about here that my dad first bought me maybe 25 years ago. It's called "The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need". It describes a bunch of basic investment vehicles and, for the most part, why you shouldn't use them (it also talks about what most people should do). [edit] Updated this year to include crypto, nfts, etc. But that's not the point.

The anecdote is about how there was a hot trend in investing in the early '80s (?) when people were converting their dollars to Mexican Pesos and depositing them into Mexican banks because they offered better interest rates than American banks. Cool hack, and completely safe since the Peso was pegged to the dollar by the Mexican government.

Until it wasn't. Oops.

So the advice was: don't use alternative currency as an investment because you don't know how stable it's going to be. Fits pretty well here -- very direct for stablecoin, and would apply to regular crypto too if it ever starts looking like a real currency.

Vanadium 50 said:
Besides, what would this replace? Math? English? Cut a little out of every other course?
Gym? Art? Put the "economics" back in "home economics"?
 
  • #625
russ_watters said:
I don't know, it might. To me it is more basic/broad than learning stablecoins specifically. And even such basic things as "don't be stupid", "don't be gullible", "if it sounds too good to be true it probably is" and "you're an adult now, start acting like it" are things a lot of people need to hear/get.

The anecdote is about how there was a hot trend in investing in the early '80s (?) when people were converting their dollars to Mexican Pesos and depositing them into Mexican banks because they offered better interest rates than American banks. Cool hack, and completely safe since the Peso was pegged to the dollar by the Mexican government.
I could see a history/lesson(s) in the following being helpful:

i.) compounding of wealth
Einstein said compound interest was the Eighth Wonder of the world. Many people may not realize how important/powerful it is to start early. The math is crazy in terms of how much more money you have to invest later in life to "catch up" to someone who started earlier (with less contributions).
ii.) the dangers of debt
It can be compounding in reverse if you get stuck in a spiral.
iii.) asset bubbles & Ponzi schemes
iv.) how to buy a house (biggest asset most people will purchase)

It's sad that very prominent investors/finance people sometimes say the financial advisory industry is more sales sometimes than helpful advice. It can vary...but some firms are known for more of a salesman-like quality vs. looking out for your best interests. I interviewed with Ameriprise before and they felt like a cheap sales firm. Granted, that was a long time ago and maybe they've changed or it was just that one location. But, basically, it felt like I was in the movie Boiler Room with Ben Affleck.

I do wonder, though, if these topics would seem too "foreign" to those living in a very poor community? The counter might be that they might need this information the most.
 
  • #626
russ_watters said:
However, this specific case reminds me of an anecdote in a book I've talked about here that my dad first bought me maybe 25 years ago. It's called "The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need". I
First investment book I bought, at age 22. Dated now of course, but still readable and the mindset is timeless.
 
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  • #627
kyphysics said:


^^reposting from the Today I Learned thread
I think this is where position sizing matters a lot. I've heard a ton of people say to just take 1% of your assets/net worth and put it into bitcoin, b/c if it goes to the moon and turns out to be the greatest investment of all time, then you don't want to miss this. On the other hand, 1% won't kill you if it went to absolute 0.

You might say 1% wouldn't gain you much either. Fair enough. And you could also say that lots of early stage speculative companies might have just as equal of a chance of getting you 100x gains - like gene editing or artificial intelligence stoc

The thing I don't understand with people investing in bitcoin or crypto is why they'd put like 50% or more of their assets into it. Some are just so crazed they are basically 100% into it. That is diversification suicide obviously...violates basic investing principles and common sense. I do feel bad, too, for those who were tricked into buying crypto by Ponzi scheme pumpers, but I still feel like many should have known not to put everything into it.

And, if someone was like 40 years old+ doing that?...really bad. I figure if you're in your 20's...maybe up through 30's even (at most) and don't have a lot of life experience with investing, okay, I could see you making this dumb mistake...40 y/o+...? should have known better. Why put ALL your eggs into this shaky asset?

The 1 percent shouldn't be a general rule. I don't blame people who have very little saved (say less than 15k dollars), who even though are in their 20s, 30s or 40s won't ever be able to afford to buy a place to live if they continue with their current job/carrier path. They have very little to lose in placing most of their money into crypto, even if they lose 100 percent of it. It won't make a big difference in their lives. If bitcoin or whatever they bought goes up 3x or 5x in their lifetime, it might make a little change, and if it goes 100x, then they would have won.

About diversification, sure... easy to do when you're rich and can afford the whole spectrum of things to invest in. Art, gold, stocks, cryptos, appartments, etc. When you're broke, you don't have much diversification possible. Bitcoin in particular is becoming increasingly correlated to the stock market, which makes a similar asset, and isn't as a diversified asset as it may seem at first glance.
 
  • #628
fluidistic said:
They have very little to lose in placing most of their money into crypto,
Sure, but by same token they can "invest" in horse racing, lottery tickets and roulette.

fluidistic said:
About diversification, sure... easy to do when you're rich and can afford the whole spectrum of things to invest in

It is much easier now than it used to be: VTTXX (Target 2060 retirement) is a mix of domestic large cap, domestic small cap and international stocks, domestic bonds and international bonds. It is heavily weighted towards stocks, but over time the bond fraction will grow. Minimum initial investment is $1000; for subsequent investments it's $1. The expense ratio is 0.08%

Investment products are much, much easier to access than thy were when I was starting out. (Back then, stock prices were measured in eighths of a dollar, that's how long ago it was,)
 
  • #629
Vanadium 50 said:
Sure, but by same token they can "invest" in horse racing, lottery tickets and roulette.
It is much easier now than it used to be: VTTXX (Target 2060 retirement) is a mix of domestic large cap, domestic small cap and international stocks, domestic bonds and international bonds. It is heavily weighted towards stocks, but over time the bond fraction will grow. Minimum initial investment is $1000; for subsequent investments it's $1. The expense ratio is 0.08%

Investment products are much, much easier to access than thy were when I was starting out. (Back then, stock prices were measured in eighths of a dollar, that's how long ago it was,)
I agree. There are nuances though, between horse racing, lottery and cryptocurrencies in general. With lottery, it's easier to figure out your chances of winning (and how much you'll more likely lose if you "invest" in lottery tickets over the years), in horse racings you may gain knowledge and have a higher chances of winning than others, whereas with crypto, you have to either bet it's useless/useful and/or worthless/worth of something.

Ok and thanks for the rest, I'll investigate.
 
  • #630
I'd go a step further - crypto should not be an "investment",. If it's a currency, it's supposed to be a stable store of value. (Currencies can fluctuate with respect to each other, but that's the intent. And yes, it doesn't always work out that way. Failures to maintain a stable store of value include the Zimbabwe dollar, Venezuelan Bolivar, a handful from Brazil, etc.)

Or is crypto an investment, with ups and downs? If so, what's the underlying asset?

It can't be both.
 
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  • #631
Vanadium 50 said:
It can't be both.
But it can be neither.
 
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  • #632
Vanadium 50 said:
I'd go a step further - crypto should not be an "investment",. If it's a currency, it's supposed to be a stable store of value. (Currencies can fluctuate with respect to each other, but that's the intent. And yes, it doesn't always work out that way. Failures to maintain a stable store of value include the Zimbabwe dollar, Venezuelan Bolivar, a handful from Brazil, etc.)

Or is crypto an investment, with ups and downs? If so, what's the underlying asset?

It can't be both.
I didn't study economics, so the following may be wrong (correct me if necessary), but the more a cryptocurrency is used as a currency, the more stable it becomes. Regarding, say bitcoin to pick one, why wouldn't it be possible for it to be a currency, assuming that it's deflationary and is regarded as an investment, because it presumably didn't reach enough popularity?

I would say that.the underlying value of bitcoin is that, as of today at least, one can safely prove ownership of a particular address on the bitcoin blockchain. I think it's extremely complicated to dig into all the details and caveats of how bitcoin works, so that most people take for.granted.that it's a safe way to prove ownership, while in reality there is a big leap of faith involved, it's much more complicated than public and private keys of addresses. I think the biggest drawback of bitcoin is that proof of work pollutes the Earth too much due to insane energy consumption, and as such I don't know if it will succeed in the very long term (say in 80 years from now).

There are other cleaner cryptocurrencies, some much more efficient, which, if it wasn't for their swing in price, could be used on large scale. Bitcoin isn't used in el salvador, there's no transaction visible on the blockchain when people do trades with chivo wallet (they use a wrapped bitcoin pegged to the bitcoin, which they can convert into real bitcoins, but it isn't done by default).
 
  • #633
fluidistic said:
...but the more a cryptocurrency is used as a currency, the more stable it becomes.
I think the cause-effect relationship goes the other way: stability and security (reliability) are traits of a good gurrency, so they cause people to adopt it. For example, USD or Euros instead of Mexican Pesos for international trade. I don't see why adoption should cause stability except due to inertia(and then only a limited amount). And since the actual use is tiny compared to the investment holding, what happens if people stop buying it.
Regarding, say bitcoin to pick one, why wouldn't it be possible for it to be a currency, assuming that it's deflationary and is regarded as an investment, because it presumably didn't reach enough popularity?
I hold investments, but buy and sell stuff with money. They're fundamentally different. I don't expect or want massive deflation in my checking account and I can't and won't buy a soda by feeding a stock certificate into the machine.

It's generally regarded by economists that slight inflation is good. I feel like people who hope for deflation think they will get to have their cake and eat it too.
I would say that.the underlying value of bitcoin is that, as of today at least, one can safely prove ownership of a particular address on the bitcoin blockchain.
How? My checking account statement proves I own the money in it, but the statements usefulness has nothing to do with the value in it. I don't see why bitcoin advocates see value in the features of bitcoin.

Or...there's value in credit card processing, buy it's fixed as a small percentage of the money flow, not stand-alone.
I think it's extremely complicated to dig into all the details and caveats of how bitcoin works, so that most people take for.granted.that it's a safe way to prove ownership, while in reality there is a big leap of faith involved...
Agreed. And that's a great feature for a scam.
 
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  • #634
1656269928849.png
 
  • #635
russ_watters said:
It's generally regarded by economists that slight inflation is good.
Inflation transfers welath from creditors to debtors. In principle, if you are a debtor you want inflation, and if you're a creditor, you want deflation. Too much of either, of course, causes other, deeper problems.

fluidistic said:
one can safely prove ownership of a particular address on the bitcoin blockchain
If that were strictly true, Bitcoin heists would be impossible. And, in principle, I suppose one could photograph every dollar one ever had and get at least as good results.

US dollars have a unique aspect: US taxes must be paid in US dollars = not euros, yen, pesos, loonies or bitcoins. The US spends $6T a year in federal spending, and states about $2T on a GDP of about $25T. So about a third of the US economy must be on dollars.

Given that, what does Bitcoin buy you?
  • The ability to buy things you don't want the government knowing about.
  • Stonks only go up! Bitcoin too!
Neither seems a compelling reason to switch away from dollar when buying a gallon of milk. In the US, crime is a few percent of the economy, so there is little use of Bitcoin day-to-day. Only when you want someone whacked. :smile:

That leaves "stonks always go up" - with no underlying asset and limited purchsing ability,. the only point is the Greater Fool Theory. Get in now, and sell it later to someone else. Historically this has not ended well. You won't want to be the one standing up when the music stops.
 
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  • #636
Vanadium 50 said:
Inflation transfers welath from creditors to debtors. In principle, if you are a debtor you want inflation, and if you're a creditor, you want deflation. Too much of either, of course, causes other, deeper problems.
I have a personal theory that the real point of inflation, or at least one point, is to give everyone a pay cut. Over time there are jobs that are relatively less valuable, and either the pay for those people needs to be cut, or everyone else needs to be paid more. I think psychologically people are very adverse to pay cuts so a small amount of inflation is necessary if we want jobs to fade away in the economy.
 
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  • #637
Vanadium 50 said:
If that were strictly true, Bitcoin heists would be impossible. And, in principle, I suppose one could photograph every dollar one ever had and get at least as good results.

US dollars have a unique aspect: US taxes must be paid in US dollars = not euros, yen, pesos, loonies or bitcoins. The US spends $6T a year in federal spending, and states about $2T on a GDP of about $25T. So about a third of the US economy must be on dollars.

Given that, what does Bitcoin buy you?
  • The ability to buy things you don't want the government knowing about.
  • Stonks only go up! Bitcoin too!
Neither seems a compelling reason to switch away from dollar when buying a gallon of milk. In the US, crime is a few percent of the economy, so there is little use of Bitcoin day-to-day. Only when you want someone whacked. :smile:

That leaves "stonks always go up" - with no underlying asset and limited purchsing ability,. the only point is the Greater Fool Theory. Get in now, and sell it later to someone else. Historically this has not ended well. You won't want to be the one standing up when the music stops.
What I meant is that as long as you have the private key of a particular address, you can prove it, for example by transfering funds out of the address (but I'm sure there are other ways too). If someone have access to the key, he gains ownership of that address, and this may happen by scammer/gunpoint/drug/whatever else way.

I don't really see why taxes in the US are important regarding bitcoin in particular (or other cryptocurrencies), it's supposed to be a currency ungoverned by any state. Plus, nothing forbids taxes to be paid in bitcoins, this already happened in Ohio a few years ago, but they messed up the implementation (they were supposed to save money but made it the other way around) and gave up on this. Given more time, older people being replaced by more crypto-friendly people may well make things change.
Apparently some people sell apartments in bitcoin. And many people transfer cryptocurrencies to relatives. You can pay "cold wallets" in bitcoins, too.

I don't really agree with your last paragraph. For some people, of course, this is true, but for others, it is "Get in now, wait several decades, possibly giving it to your children, hopefully in a world where insert any crypto is accepted as a way of payment for everyday goods. I.e., never, ever, get it back to fiat.". But sure, get "early" so that you make a good deal in the long run, that's the same idea in both cases.

Then there is the pump and dump schemes, stupid cryptos with no use and no future, etc. Some people are looking to get into those to make quick bucks.
 
  • #638
Office_Shredder said:
I have a personal theory
Not allowed on PF! Mods! Mods!:wink:

It's not actually a personal theory. Marx would held that the actual economic "thing" is the hour of labor, and inflation just alterns the exchange rate between that and the little green pieces of paper we use to track it.

Inflation makes a pay cut or a smaller increase harder to see and therefore more psychologically tolerable. Also, if prices of goods, services and labor are in constant motion, it is easier for them to adjust relative to one another tnan if everything is static.
 
  • #639
fluidistic said:
nothing forbids taxes to be paid in bitcoins,
Except the law.
 
  • #640
russ_watters said:
How? My checking account statement proves I own the money in it, but the statements usefulness has nothing to do with the value in it. I don't see why bitcoin advocates see value in the features of bitcoin.

Or...there's value in credit card processing, buy it's fixed as a small percentage of the money flow, not stand-alone.

Agreed. And that's a great feature for a scam.
I don't think you do. I certainly don't own the money in my bank account. For instance, when I tried to perform a wire transfer to a cryptocurrency exchange, my bank refused, even though what I wanted to do isn't illegal. I asked why and they replied they do not want to deal with these kinds of business, although they suggested me to use a debit card to purchase crypto (but they charge around 2 percent instead of zero!). If I were to gamble in a casino or buy a weapon, I guess my bank wouldn't prevent me from doing it, but eventually it's up to my bank to decide what I cannot do with ''my'' money, not me. They can also freeze my account for any reason.
In Argentina, banks kept the dollars people had put in (in their savings accounts), and gave them pesos instead (pesofication), legally robbing people off.

Bitcoin, as far as I know, doesn't suffer from these features. If you own an address, then you're your own bank and your funds are yours.
 
  • #641
Yes, you can use crypto to skirt the law (pesoification) and your banking agreement (your wire transfer example), but not everyone sees these as positive. But this is an argument that crypto is a more convenient currency. Did BTC somehow get a factor of 3 less convenient since its peak?
 
  • #642
fluidistic said:
I don't think you do. I certainly don't own the money in my bank account.
That's nonsense. Not only is it yours, but it is federally insured against loss.
For instance, when I tried to perform a wire transfer to a cryptocurrency exchange, my bank refused...
Owning the money doesn't mean you get every account feature/term you want, and because you are lending them your money but it is protected, it is in both their interest and the government's that they don't do stupid or illegal things for you just because you ask them to.
Bitcoin, as far as I know, doesn't suffer from these features. If you own an address, then you're your own bank and your funds are yours.
But few people actually hold their own keys. That's why they use shadier banks (exchanges) to hold their money and help them do dumb/illegal things with it.

Also, holding your keys makes it even harder to use.
 
  • #643
Getting rid of all that pesky institutional oversight gets rid of all that pesky institutional oversight.
 
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  • #644
russ_watters said:
That's nonsense. Not only is it yours, but it is federally insured against loss.

Owning the money doesn't mean you get every account feature/term you want, and because you are lending them your money but it is protected, it is in both their interest and the government's that they don't do stupid or illegal things for you just because you ask them to.

But few people actually hold their own keys. That's why they use shadier banks (exchanges) to hold their money and help them do dumb/illegal things with it.

Also, holding your keys makes it even harder to use.
I still want to do what I wish with my money. "Investing" in cryptos shouldn't be forbidden by banks, even in the worst (legal) case that the cryptos goes to 0 in value. Buying cryptos isn't forbidden by the law.
A stupider thing would be to buy a pack of cigarettes, don't you think?

Few people hold their own keys because they buy cryptos on centralised exchanges and let the money there because of either choice or laziness. These exchanges are indeed similar to banks in several aspects, one of them being fractional reserve. Unlike banks though, we can see the amount each exchange really owns, in real time (except for Monero since its blockchain is obfuscated). The exchanges usually offer "high" reward rates for keeping the crypto there, and the insurance is probably not as good as a real bank, which makes them just terrible for the long run, or even short/medium term.

Holding your keys and managing your funds isn't particularly hard, but it is heavily dependent on which crypto we're talking about, and whether it's a software/hot or hardware+software/cold wallet.
 
  • #645
fluidistic said:
I still want to do what I wish with my money. "Investing" in cryptos shouldn't be forbidden by banks, even in the worst (legal) case that the cryptos goes to 0 in value. Buying cryptos isn't forbidden by the law.
A stupider thing would be to buy a pack of cigarettes, don't you think?

You can do whatever you want with your money. You can't make the bank do things it doesn't want to do. For example, if you buy a car, that car is your car. If you park your car on your neighbor's lawn and leave it there, it will eventually be towed. That doesn't mean you don't own the car. You can take the money out of the bank and do whatever you want with it. I'm sympathetic to the claim that the US government over leverages its regulatory power to limit what banks do, but that doesn't mean you don't own your money.

fluidistic said:
Few people hold their own keys because they buy cryptos on centralised exchanges and let the money there because of either choice or laziness. These exchanges are indeed similar to banks in several aspects, one of them being fractional reserve. Unlike banks though, we can see the amount each exchange really owns, in real time (except for Monero since its blockchain is obfuscated).

You know what the reserves are, but who checks how fractionalized it is? Banks have to report all their assets and liabilities to their regulators, and are required to maintain certain capital limits. That feels like it might be more transparent.
 
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  • #646
and why do we have all those bank refs? Because history is full of panics wiping out depositors and creating depressions, like is currently happening with DeFi
 
  • #647
Which bubble dies first?

$GME/$AMC

or crypto
 
  • #648
kyphysics said:
Which bubble dies first?
"Place your bets, you can't win without a ticket..."
 
  • #649
kyphysics said:
Which bubble dies first?

$GME/$AMC

or crypto
$GME/$AMC are "bubbles" only in that the value of their stock is too high for the underlying value of the companies. They are NOT without ANY underlying value so the thought of their going all the way to zero is pretty much a non-starter. Crypto coins on they other hand generally have NO underlying value so it is not at all unthinkable that their value could go to zero.
 
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  • #650
Bitcoin Jesus goin down - wasnt the whole point of crypto to create a system that would not need contracts and trust?

https://cryptobriefing.com/roger-ver-defaults-on-coinflex-for-47-million/

According to CoinFLEX CEO Mark Lamb, the previously reported large counterparty responsible for the crypto exchange’s $47 million debt is none other than Bitcoin celebrity Roger Ver. Lamb stated on Twitter that Ver had been served a notice of default for failing to top up his margin requirements.

Lamb’s announcement came shortly after Ver himself tweeted that rumors of his default to a counterparty were false. “Not only do I not have a debt to this [counterparty], but this [counterparty] owes me a substantial sum of money, and I am currently seeking the return of my funds,” Ver posted.

Ver’s denial prompted Lamb to “clarify to the public that yes – the debt is 100% related to [Ver’s] account” and that “CoinFLEX also categorically denies that we have any debts owing to him,” insisting the accusation was a tactic by Ver to “deflect from his liabilities and responsibilities.”
 

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