Why is the replacement fertility rate 2.1 instead of 2.0?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the replacement fertility rate being set at 2.1 instead of 2.0, exploring the reasons behind this figure, including demographic factors and mortality rates of children before reproduction.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Debate/contested
  • Conceptual clarification

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants suggest that the replacement fertility rate accounts for children who die before reaching reproductive age.
  • Others argue that the rate may vary depending on the context, with developed countries being closer to 2 and undeveloped countries requiring higher rates.
  • There is a contention regarding whether non-surviving children should be considered in the calculation of the fertility rate, with some asserting that they should count as childless individuals.
  • One participant mentions the sex ratio at birth, noting that for a replacement rate of 2.1, there will be a specific ratio of males to females born, which they suggest contributes to the overall figure.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on how to account for non-surviving children in the fertility rate calculation, indicating that the discussion remains unresolved with multiple competing perspectives.

Contextual Notes

The discussion highlights assumptions regarding definitions of childlessness and survivorship, as well as the implications of demographic variations across different countries.

swampwiz
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What is the reason for this? Does it have something to do with the fact that the women who don't have any children somehow contribute more to the statistic than women who do have children?
 
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It accounts for the children who die before they have the chance to reproduce.
 
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A corollary of #2 is that this rate depends on the situation. While developed countries will be close to 2, undeveloped countries will need higher rates.
 
Ygggdrasil said:
It accounts for the children who die before they have the chance to reproduce.

OK, this makes sense - but shouldn't those non-survivors count as simply folks that go childless, and therefore be included in the denominator?
 
swampwiz said:
OK, this makes sense - but shouldn't those non-survivors count as simply folks that go childless, and therefore be included in the denominator?
No, by definition the fertility rate is the expected number of children of a woman who lives to the end of her reproductive life.
 
swampwiz said:
OK, this makes sense - but shouldn't those non-survivors count as simply folks that go childless, and therefore be included in the denominator?
People who don't reproduce still are people, they can't be reasonably considered as nonexistent.
 
swampwiz said:
OK, this makes sense - but shouldn't those non-survivors count as simply folks that go childless, and therefore be included in the denominator?
How can you count someone that hasn't survived? (no longer exists.)
 
The sex ratio at birth for humans is 1.05 males to 1 female at birth on average. So for 2.1 children there will be 1.076 males and 1.024 females. I guess this is the main contribution.
 

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