Will H1N1 continue to pose a threat?

[RazorRose]

http://www.news-medical.net/news/20100215/WHO-will-meet-to-decide-if-H1N1-has-peaked.aspx"

so summary of the above linked article.
WHO (World Health Organization) meets later this month to determine if the worst of h1n1 is past us.

my own questions to you:

do you think that we've seen the peak of h1n1? (we as in global)

thinking back how has h1n1 awareness/"scare" effected you directly or indirectly?

any other comments or questions are welcome. I'm really just curious... about well everything.

 

[DaveC426913]

thinking back how has h1n1 awareness/"scare" effected you directly or indirectly?

Absolutely not at all.

Except for my wife's hair coming out in clumps over the ridiculous fear-mongering rampant in the Health industry.

 

[Proton Soup]

http://www.news-medical.net/news/20100215/WHO-will-meet-to-decide-if-H1N1-has-peaked.aspx"

so summary of the above linked article.
WHO (World Health Organization) meets later this month to determine if the worst of h1n1 is past us.

my own questions to you:

do you think that we've seen the peak of h1n1? (we as in global)

thinking back how has h1n1 awareness/"scare" effected you directly or indirectly?

any other comments or questions are welcome. I'm really just curious... about well everything.

i found the scare tactics disheartening from the beginning. it has eroded my confidence in WHO, and i believe they have undermined their own effectiveness to respond to a real emergency.

 

[lorenzomicron]

http://www.news-medical.net/news/20100215/WHO-will-meet-to-decide-if-H1N1-has-peaked.aspx"

so summary of the above linked article.
WHO (World Health Organization) meets later this month to determine if the worst of h1n1 is past us.

my own questions to you:

do you think that we've seen the peak of h1n1? (we as in global)

thinking back how has h1n1 awareness/"scare" effected you directly or indirectly?

any other comments or questions are welcome. I'm really just curious... about well everything.

based on my research in mathematical epidemiology and specifically on the h1n1 virus, it seems that the worst of the h1n1 virus has occurred this past winter (november-december) and since then has been on a decline. this is simply the cyclical nature of the disease as these kinds of disease deplete their susceptible base supply eventually and must necessarily precess.

however, what remains to be seen is how strongly it will return, because it most definitely will, as the cyclical nature of this disease indicates it will be of seasonal type, much like the normal flu. however, one possibility, which is probably the most likely outcome due to the response of the global health institutions and also due to the vaccinations available, will be that the swine flu will just fade into the typical flu and become no more of a problem than the normal flu really. however this depends highly on the mutation rate of the h1n1 for it could regain its virulence with enough mutations before its next cycle.

as for psychological effects, i was never scared of it because i knew it would not be seriously harmful.

 

[Proton Soup]

as for psychological effects, i was never scared of it because i knew it would not be seriously harmful.

is this a common opinion in the H1N1 research community?

 

[lorenzomicron]

is this a common opinion in the H1N1 research community?

in the professional community itself, it has been seen that the virulence and mortality rate of h1n1 has actually declined since its initial onset, and that if people would take good care of themselves- especially young adults- serious harm such as death would not be a possibility. so for myself, i was never scared. for people both very old and very young however, the disease could have fatal effects. however, this opinion seems to vary regionally, as most western countries seem to approach the h1n1 relatively calmly while regions such as asia take the most extreme approaches possible in their programmes.

 

[christinedwrd]

I have a friend at WHO. She says that their latest health advisory shows that everyone might get h1n1 so it is important to ensure that our immune system is at its best. That way our body can fight off the virus easily and won't cause deaths. Still have to read that advisory, just thought I could share.

 

[DaveC426913]

"... everyone might get h1n1..."

I'm going to say this is paraphrasing. Whether you or your friend, I don't know. But paraphrasing is what I'm callin' it.

 

[russ_watters]

Well everyone might get struck by lightning too, but that isn't a very useful thing to say either.

 

[hypatia]

I'm am sure they are still on guard for new mutations of the H1N1, potentially a more virulent mutation. Several strains have already appeared.
Keep in mind that the vaccine is effective against the discovered mutated virus and that the new strains are also kept in check by anti-virals.

 

[nismaratwork]

Sure, influenza is clearly a constant threat, but so is a car accident and obesity. Guess which is going to kill more people in an average decade? If a given virus mutates to make it highly virulent, being hysterical is notably unhelpful as a means of defense.

Russ: Knowledge of lightning strikes is useful if you simply realize that raising a golf-club on a hill during a lightning storm is unwise, much as basic means of avoiding someone who is sneezing their balls off is useful. The problem is that people want germ-proofing in their lives, but seem content (and rightly so) with simply trying to avoid lightning. Go figure, and meanwhile people drive without any of the anxiety you see around a pandemic despite the relatively high risk of injury or death. People are odd.

 

[DaveC426913]

I think our immune system is able to fight with H1N1 Virus easily and won't cause deaths.

As always, healthy immune systems fight invaders easily. The risk is always for the very young and the elderly.