Will interstellar travel become more possible in future

[Steven Hansel]

Let's say we already colonized some of the planets and moons in our solar system. Mars,Moon, Europa and etc. Planets like Mars and other has less gravity than earth, so the resource needed for space travel in our solar system will reduce by a lot if we launch spaceships there. Say, that we already can do asteroid minings by 2030. How long will it take for humans to colonize planets in other solar system?

 

[russ_watters]

Let's say we already colonized some of the planets and moons in our solar system. Mars,Moon, Europa and etc. Planets like Mars and other has less gravity than earth, so the resource needed for space travel in our solar system will reduce by a lot if we launch spaceships there. Say, that we already can do asteroid minings by 2030. How long will it take for humans to colonize planets in other solar system?

Based on your optimistic vision for colonization of other planets in our solar system, I optimistically estimate we will be able to colonize other solar systems in approximately never.

 

[rootone]

Even if we managed to utilize huge amounts of resources within the solar system, it doesn't make interstellar travel much more likely.
The speed of light is still what it is, and even at a substantial fraction of light speed collision with tiny bits of dust would be enough to cripple an imaginary ship.

 

[BL4CKB0X97]

This solar system, yes. ( The Expanse, hooray)
Interstellar? Unlikely, but who knows? 100 years ago,you said to anyone robots would be on Mars and men have walked on the moon they would have laughed at you.

Times change, science with it.

 

[Steven Hansel]

This solar system, yes. ( The Expanse, hooray)
Interstellar? Unlikely, but who knows? 100 years ago,you said to anyone robots would be on Mars and men have walked on the moon they would have laughed at you.

Times change, science with it.

It's like moore law but applied in all of the technologies. I think we are growing exponentially, and i believe we will also grow even more faster in the future.

 

[BL4CKB0X97]

It's like moore law but applied in all of the technologies. I think we are growing exponentially, and i believe we will also grow even more faster in the future.

Very true. I feel we have pushed the ball to the top of the hill over the last century , we just need to push the ball down the other side.

 

[PeroK]

It's like moore law but applied in all of the technologies. I think we are growing exponentially, and i believe we will also grow even more faster in the future.

How has transportation technology progressed in the past 50 years? Automobiles, trains, aircraft, spacecraft - justify the claim of exponential progression.

Remember that supersonic commercial air travel has come ... and gone!

 

[BL4CKB0X97]

Remember that supersonic commercial air travel has come ... and gone!

And come back again, better.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.in...on-london-new-york-concorde-a7420466.html?amp

 

[PeroK]

And come back again, better.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/science/boom-supersonic-passenger-jet-virgin-richard-branson-london-new-york-concorde-a7420466.html?amp

I thought I slept well last night. I see I've woken up in 2023!

I remember being late for school to watch the launch of Concorde in 1976. If someone had said then that in 2017 it would still take close to 24 hours to fly to Australia you would have laughed at them.

I'm sure supersonic flights will return, but progress is neither exponential nor continuous in air travel. It's got cheaper in the past 40 years, that's the main difference.

 

[Steven Hansel]

How has transportation technology progressed in the past 50 years? Automobiles, trains, aircraft, spacecraft - justify the exponential progression.

Remember that supersonic commercial air travel has come ... and gone!

I guess that's true. external factors like, safety, budgets, and etc affect this progress in technology. But the important thing is that we are progressing faster than before. If we have a lot people like Elon Musk, We would progress much faster. Public interest in Space Exploration is quite low and i know there are a lot of people who are interested in space exploration but it's so expensive. So comes Elon Musk, investing all his money and taking risk in Space Exploration business. Now we can see, public interest in space exploration actually increases. So, there are many factors that affect our progress in technology. I would say interest and consumer really affects, example, Smartphone and Computers.

 

[PeroK]

I guess that's true. external factors like, safety, budgets, and etc affect this progress in technology. But the important thing is that we are progressing faster than before. If we have a lot people like Elon Musk, We would progress much faster. Public interest in Space Exploration is quite low and i know there are a lot of people who are interested in space exploration but it's so expensive. So comes Elon Musk, investing all his money and taking risk in Space Exploration business. Now we can see, public interest in space exploration actually increases. So, there are many factors that affect our progress in technology. I would say interest and consumer really affects, example, Smartphone and Computers.

How much are you prepared to pay for:

a) a smartphone?

b) a one-way trip to Mars?

Branson is,talking about £2500 to fly from London to NYC, which is fair enough. It would be beyond my budget, but there are plenty who can afford that.

Flying into space costs millions and will remain for the super rich. There's no mass market for that.

 

[Steven Hansel]

How much are you prepared to pay for:

a) a smartphone?

b) a one-way trip to Mars?

Branson is,talking about £2500 to fly from London to NYC, which is fair enough. It would be beyond my budget, but there are plenty who can afford that.

Flying into space costs millions and will remain for the super rich. There's no mass market for that.

It actually will, Elon musk invest his own money to actually improve his rockets. Falcon 9 now consistently bring satellites to space and also bring cargo to ISS. It increases the company's income. He also said that he will make travel to the Mars possible by turning down the cost to $200,000 - $300,000. It's still expensive but I'm sure that the price will gradually down over year. After proving, that SpaceX can actually transport peoples, cargos or etc to Mars. Government, Private companies, Universities will have huge interest towards SpaceX. I believe cost for space travel will come down. History is repeating itself, My family barely can afford ticket planes back then. Now, i can buy plane tickets for holiday no problem. The same as space travel, it's just starting out

 

[Vanadium 50]

The same as space travel

Is it? People have pointed out differences.

 

[PeroK]

It actually will, Elon musk invest his own money to actually improve his rockets. Falcon 9 now consistently bring satellites to space and also bring cargo to ISS. It increases the company's income. He also said that he will make travel to the Mars possible by turning down the cost to $200,000 - $300,000. It's still expensive but I'm sure that the price will gradually down over year. After proving, that SpaceX can actually transport peoples, cargos or etc to Mars. Government, Private companies, Universities will have huge interest towards SpaceX. I believe cost for space travel will come down. History is repeating itself, My family barely can afford ticket planes back then. Now, i can buy plane tickets for holiday no problem. The same as space travel, it's just starting out

You didn't answer my question about how much you would pay Musk for a one way ticket to Mars.

It's a simple question. If you are convinced we will colonise Mars how much would you pay to relocate there?

Don't tell me lots of other people would do it. Tell me you would do it and how much you would pay to live there.

Tell me you would like to take your family there. That your children would be born or grow up on Mars.

But, the key question is still: How much would you pay to leave Earth behind, move to Mars and live out your days there?

 

[BenAS]

How much are you prepared to pay for:

a) a smartphone?

b) a one-way trip to Mars?

Branson is,talking about £2500 to fly from London to NYC, which is fair enough. It would be beyond my budget, but there are plenty who can afford that.

Flying into space costs millions and will remain for the super rich. There's no mass market for that.

"Mass" market maybe not, but there seems to be a pretty solid market for multi-million dollar yachts, mansions etc. There could indeed be a viable market for million dollar tickets to visit mars.

 

[PeroK]

"Mass" market maybe not, but there seems to be a pretty solid market for multi-million dollar yachts, mansions etc. There could indeed be a viable market for million dollar tickets to visit mars.

There might be. But they would seem even less likely to give up their mansions, yachts etc. and colonise Mars.

Note that the current average cost of space tourism is about $20 million dollars (to get to the ISS). I would think Mars would be $100 million plus (at least).

But, you know, regardless of the cost it's over a year round trip with a 1-10% chance of death. Note, by comparison, that about 5,000 people have climbed Everest (costs about $50,000+) and about 300 have died on the mountain. Although, at least with Everest you can simply turn round and be home in a week if you get sick or your nerve fails you.

 

[russ_watters]

I guess that's true. external factors like, safety, budgets, and etc affect this progress in technology. But the important thing is that we are progressing faster than before.

No we aren't! It doesn't matter how many times you repeat this wish; it will not become true. Air/space transportation progressed rapidly for the first 50 or 60 years (not exponentially) and then utterly stopped progressing in terms of speed/capabilities. Almost all improvements in air travel in the past 40 years have been about efficiency/cost. Space travel has not improved at all since the introduction of the space shuttle.

Elon Musk *might* be able to improve the cost effectiveness, but I think he's blowing smoke in order to attract investors. But either way, he/NASA are not proposing a significant expansion of capabilities beyond what was generated 50 years ago.

If anything, what this shows us is that the challenges grow exponentially, which therefore limits the progress. Indeed, that's typical for an exponential curve and is now occurring for computers as well. Performance, storage, etc., improved exponentially for the first two-three decades of personal computing and then ground to a halt about 10 years ago. Now the advancements are small/incremental and extremely difficult to achieve -- very similar to air/space travel.

 

[lifeonmercury]

With regard to the OP's original question, I believe any interstellar travel will depend on our ability to travel at near-light speeds. I'm aware of the problems that we'd need to cope with like collisions with dust particles damaging the spaceship. Presumably some smart person will sort that out in the next 100 years.
At near-light speeds, thousands of years will have passed on Earth but the space colonists will reach their targets in just a few short years (time dilation).

 

[newjerseyrunner]

It depends on what we become. I find the idea that we'll still be meat machines in 1,000 years absurd. If you transfer your consciousness into a radiation hardened, immortal machine, suddenly a trip that takes 1,000 years isn't all that long.

 

[rootone]

It depends on what we become. I find the idea that we'll still be meat machines in 1,000 years absurd. If you transfer your consciousness into a radiation hardened, immortal machine, suddenly a trip that takes 1,000 years isn't all that long.

At present we don't have even the slightest clue of if it's even possible to emulate human consciousness electronically, and how we would extract the sentience of a human being then reload it into a machine isn't even on an imaginary drawing board yet,
The best AI's we currently have are really just very fast number crunchers that excel at one task and are useless for anything else. Nothing has even remotely come close to passing the Turing test.
I think that converting from a consciousness which evolved over millions of years as a result of selective biochemistry, to a sentient 'black box' with no biochemistry at all might take rather more than 1000 years if it is even possible that is.

 

[PeroK]

It depends on what we become. I find the idea that we'll still be meat machines in 1,000 years absurd. If you transfer your consciousness into a radiation hardened, immortal machine, suddenly a trip that takes 1,000 years isn't all that long.

And I find it extraordinary that you don't see the full dystopian horror of that scenario!

 

[nikkkom]

Let's say we already colonized some of the planets and moons in our solar system. Mars,Moon, Europa and etc. Planets like Mars and other has less gravity than earth, so the resource needed for space travel in our solar system will reduce by a lot if we launch spaceships there. Say, that we already can do asteroid minings by 2030. How long will it take for humans to colonize planets in other solar system?

I guesstimate that we'd need a few centuries from today to send the first interstellar manned ship.

First, Solar system colonization.

It will require huge advances in such areas of technology as: closed life-support systems, space habitats, space-based industry, space-based food production. Right now, we are at best rudimentary in those.

Substantial progress will be needed in medicine (humans living in low- and zero-G, higher-radiation environment), power sources (say, fusion reactors?), engines (ion, fusion?).

Of course, all the other sciences would not stand still either, so expect computers to become faster, better (lighter/stronger/...) materials developed, etc. Observational astronomy will have much better data on the nearest stars and their planets. Perhaps even images of continents on them!

Solar system colonization can also result in many more people living (say, 200 billion humans by 2200?), thus having bigger economy.

With such scientific/industrial base, I imagine building of a ~0.1c ship would be possible. That is enough to reach nearest stars.

 

[nikkkom]

And I find it extraordinary that you don't see the full dystopian horror of that scenario!

Are you afraid of, say, a person with a robotic prosthetic hand?