Will the 2006 North Atlantic Hurricane Season be as Active as Predicted?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion centers around the predictions and developments of the 2006 North Atlantic hurricane season, focusing on the forecasted activity levels and specific storms as they arise. Participants share updates, links to tracking resources, and personal observations regarding the season's progression, including the implications for the eastern US coast and surrounding areas.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation
  • Debate/contested
  • Experimental/applied

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants express concern over the NOAA's prediction of a "very active" hurricane season, citing a forecast of 13 to 16 named storms, with 4 to 6 potentially becoming major hurricanes.
  • Others note a discrepancy in forecasts, mentioning a recent adjustment by NOAA to predict 12 to 14 named storms and 4 major hurricanes.
  • It is observed that the season has started slowly compared to the previous year, with fewer storms developing by mid-August.
  • Participants share links to various resources for tracking tropical weather, including the National Hurricane Center and personal blogs.
  • Specific storms such as Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, and Helene are discussed, with varying reports on their strength and potential impact.
  • Some participants speculate on the future paths of storms and their possible effects on land, particularly in relation to Europe and the Caribbean.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants do not reach a consensus on the activity level of the hurricane season, as some express concern over the slow start while others reference the potential for increased activity later in the season. Multiple competing views regarding the forecasts and specific storm developments remain present throughout the discussion.

Contextual Notes

There is a notable uncertainty regarding the accuracy of the forecasts and the potential for storms to develop or change course, which is acknowledged by participants. The discussion reflects a reliance on various sources, with some participants emphasizing the importance of reputable information.

Who May Find This Useful

This discussion may be of interest to those tracking tropical weather patterns, meteorology enthusiasts, and individuals living in areas potentially affected by hurricanes.

Rach3
Since many of us have personal interest in tropical weather, including myself, I thought it might be helpful to have a thread to keep up with it before it happens. Especially since this season is forecasted to be "very active" (NOAA) in the N. Atlantic. :frown: I think my main objective with this is for it to be an advance notification - seeing the thread suddenly jump to the top of the forum, might alert our members to important news, before it makes the news proper. Surprises are bad. And also of course, general discussion about plans, questions, humor, whatever. My opinion is that a unified thread on this is useful, because otherwise there could be dozens of small threads popping up at any sign of development and causing confusion.

Anyway - quick ground rules: I myself will only introduce stuff happening in the NA basin (affects eastern US coast, Gulf of Mexico and up to Canada, Central America, the Carribean, Bermuda, Spain, etc.); of course developments in other basins are also welcome. Sources for tracking information should be reputable - such as national weather services. Don't link to crackpot sites, please, there were enough of those threads last year. And obviously, don't use this thread for planning purposes or anything.

That in mind, here goes! The official long-range forecast for this year is:
"For the 2006 north Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA is predicting 13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which four to six could become 'major' hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher," added retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2634.htm
Of course this has a huge margin of uncertainty - c.f. last year.
 
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It's been unusually quiet this summer, but we still have most of August and some of September to go.
 
FYI - Category 5 MONSTERS!
http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/satellite/satelliteseye/educational/cat5hur.html - Generally starting in late August, but certainly during September.

This year does seem to be off to a slow start. By this time last year, Tropical Storm Harvey was winding down.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL082005_Harvey.pdf

See more at - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml
 
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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=arRUhaqmpliQ&refer=latin_america
 
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But,

Well Ernesto was barely a Cat 1 storm.
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200605.asp

Hurricane Florence remained a Cat 1 storm but did not threaten the US or Canadian coastlines -
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200606.asp
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/FLORENCE.shtml?
Hurricane Gordon advisory number 15
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 am AST THU sep 14 2006

...Gordon remains a Category Three (Cat 3) hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale...no threat to land...

At 1100 am ast...1500 UTC...the center of Hurricane Gordon was located
near latitude 29.5 North...longitude 55.9 West or about 560 miles...
905 Km...east-southeast of Bermuda.

Gordon is moving toward the NNE near 12 mph...19 km/hr
...and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual decrease
in forward speed in the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph...195 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Gordon remains a Cat 3 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane scale.
Gordon is expected to remain far out to sea, and will probably follow Florence to the NNE.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200607.asp - turning NNE - further east than Florence. It will be interesting to see how this will affect Europe.
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 9
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 am ast thu sep 14 2006

...Helene strengthening slowly over the far eastern atlantic...

At 1100 am ast...1500 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 13.4 North...longitude 36.8 West or about 835
miles...1345 km...west of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands.

Helene is moving toward the west near 20 mph...32 km/hr...a turn to
the west-northwest is expected in the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches.

Helene is far enough south that it might get to the Caribbean and perhaps the Gulf - or into Mexico. - http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200608.asp - Helene looks like its jogging NW at the moment. Interesting if it turns and follows Gordon.
 

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