News Will the US use Nukes against Iran?

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AI Thread Summary
The discussion centers on the potential for the U.S. to use nuclear weapons against Iran, with some participants suggesting that the government is preparing the political and legal groundwork for such an action. The Pentagon's draft document, 'Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations,' is cited as supporting the rationale for nuclear deterrence against adversaries. Many contributors express skepticism about the feasibility and wisdom of a preemptive nuclear strike, citing the risks of escalating global conflict and the implications for U.S. relations with nuclear powers like China and Russia. Concerns are raised about the consequences of attacking a nation that has not committed aggression, emphasizing the potential for catastrophic outcomes. Overall, the conversation reflects a mix of fear, skepticism, and criticism of government strategies regarding nuclear policy.
  • #51
Wow Art, I actually agree with you. War is politics by other means. It doesn't make sense to poisen the ground you're trying to take over. Are the trees in the field enemies such that you must punish them as well? More Gulf War veterans have died from Gulf War Syndrome than were killed in action. Astronuc says there's no fission involved--they're still dirty bombs.
 
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  • #52
I sincerely believe, if it were purely a DoD matter, nuclear first-strike weapons would be right there on the table.

My reasoning is basically what I imagine theirs to be:

If we used nuclear weapons, any idea of a surgical strike becomes a moot point. The strategy at that point becomes to demonstrate the incredible lethality and willingness of the US to simply kill and destroy anyone who would consider a nuclear threat an option. Basically, it'd be the real version of shock and awe: shockwaves and awe-****, what's going on in the world.

And it is also my genuine belief that we've got both nuclear first-strike plans for Iran at least partially drawn up and have had them for at least a decade. If there is one thing the DoD does (or at least did in previous decades) it was plan for nuclear attack situations. I'd also imagine we've got them for every country that has nuclear weapons, from the UK, to China, to Israel. Although I'd also be the first to admit that our plans for a strike on European countries are for the most part hardly kept in a super-secret serious box. In fact, I'd imagine they are joked about over coffee between MI6 guys and central intel folks. Nevertheless they're real. In fact, I thought I recalled something like Battle Plan Red or something that was just this, an absurd yet entirely real gaming for a theoretical attack on Britain, but frankly I'm too lazy to research it. Maybe I'm crazy. The Israeli ones most likely 'do not exist' :cool: the main reason being that the IDF finds such things rather less amusing than other US allies. Not to mention that, if it did, it'd have probably been well in the hands of (if not partially drawn up by) friendly folks at Mossad by now.

I recall a funny exchange from "the constant gardener":

(to a UK foreign intel service station chief in Africa) "What's the matter, I thought you spies were supposed to know everything that's going on in your neck of the woods?"

(UK spy's response) "Only God knows everything - and he works for Mossad."

Hehe.

But in all seriousness, things are hardly run by the DoD nuclear handbook somewhere in the basement of the Pentagon. If they were, fellows over at Foggy Bottom would most likely simultaneously implode and explode in a rare chemical reaction caused by a fusion of supercharged incredulity with incalculable ire.

Then you've got the problem of a radioactive world fourth largest oil exporter. It wouldn't be a huge direct problem for the US, except that our main suppliers like Venezuela, Bolivia, Russia, etc would probably never speak to us again. Not to mention India, Pakistan and China who would most likely consider this an act of war. And our friends in Iraq and Saudi Arabia would most likely be more than a little hesitant to truck through a radioactive strait of hormuz to sell the perpetrators oil.

All that said, despite our incredulity at the notion, Space Command, NORAD, NATO tactical nuclear deployments in Europe and a fleet of nuclear powered submarines themselves capable of a several overkill capacity don't exist because we thought it'd be a funny joke. They're a m.a.d-borne reality and function as a "deterrent", sure, but then again, what good's a deterrent if it's incapable of being used. Firing nuclear missiles is more than anything else at the heart of the US military preeminence strategy, even if we'd never conceivably use them. Yikes.

But again, my vote on the question is a resounding no - until we do.

PS -My read is that Ramsey Clark is probably considered the biggest joke by every succesive Attorney General since. I'd imagine his military opinions are taken about as seriously at the DoD as Howard Dean's notebook on strategies and tactics in 21st century land-warfare.
 
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  • #53
Blahness said:
...So, if Israel follows through, the general outline of the future =:

1. Israel attacks uranium enrichment sites
2. Iran responds, using manned forces
3. Israel drags the U.S. into the fight
4. ?

I'm lost at #4.
You're wrong at #3. Israel doesn't drag the U.S. into the fight. Israel takes care of problems like these all the time. They always do, because unlike the United States, they don't need to worry about political relations. Everybody around them hates them. Reminds me of Operation Entebbe. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Entebbe
 
  • #54
I sincerely doubt the Iranians have the rocketry technology available to build either strategic nukes or ICBM's atm if they did you can be damn sure the various mid east intelligence agencies and the CIA would be aware of it, dirty nukes or suitcase bombs(maybe who knows).

To me this looks like the same sort of disinformation that was spread around to kick off the gulf war. I have talked to Iranians some of who worked in the nuclear program of Iran, they assure me that when they worked there there was never any sort of a move towards enrichment of uranium to make weapons, being fairly high level physisists maybe they were in the know? Of course they are no doubt lying to cover up there governments secret stockpiling of Bombs sold to them by Korea?

Really people are you sure you are not just being misled by politicians with ulterior motives, at the very least you owe it to Iran to reserve judgement 'til any eveiodence comes to light: after Iraq do you really want to stir up another hornets nest? Is your government really that stupid? Right we've done the secular and sheites now let's get the sunnys to hate us to and we have a full house? Honestly American foreign policy over the last 100 years has often been nothing short of disasterous?

Do not believe everything you read or see in the news? I'd question everything you see about Iran, after all Bush has had Iran on the drawing board as possible invasion material for years, don't listen to anything this government says without questioning it's veracity? They misled on Iraq whether intentionaly or not is a moot point, but they will no doubt do so again.

As for the story in question , is this serious or a scam or some joke. Best way to prevent nuclear war is to launch nukes at a country whether it owns them or not, genius, I suspect Bush drafted this one himself?
 
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  • #55
Schrodinger's Dog said:
I sincerely doubt the Iranians have the rocketry technology available to build either strategic nukes or ICBM's atm if they did you can be damn sure the various mid east intelligence agencies and the CIA would be aware of it, dirty nukes or suitcase bombs(maybe who knows).

To me this looks like the same sort of disinformation that was spread around to kick off the gulf war. I have talked to Iranians some of who worked in the nuclear program of Iran, they assure me that when they worked there there was never any sort of a move towards enrichment of uranium to make weapons, being fairly high level physisists maybe they were in the know? Of course they are no doubt lying to cover up there governments secret stockpiling of Bombs sold to them by Korea?

Really people are you sure you are not just being misled by politicians with ulterior motives, at the very least you owe it to Iran to reserve judgement 'til any eveiodence comes to light: after Iraq do you really want to stir up another hornets nest? Is your government really that stupid? Right we've done the secular and sheites now let's get the sunnys to hate us to and we have a full house? Honestly American foreign policy over the last 100 years has often been nothing short of disasterous?

Do not believe everything you read or see in the news? I'd question everything you see about Iran, after all Bush has had Iran on the drawing board as possible invasion material for years, don't listen to anything this government says without questioning it's veracity? They misled on Iraq whether intentionaly or not is a moot point, but they will no doubt do so again.

As for the story in question , is this serious or a scam or some joke. Best way to prevent nuclear war is to launch nukes at a country whether it owns them or not, genius, I suspect Bush drafted this one himself?
Here's a link to Iran's current and projected missile capabilities: FAS - WMD around the world. A map putting the stats in perspective is at the bottom of the web page.

Current systems that will work are only a limited threat. Operational No-dong missiles (Shahab-3 being the Iranian version) from North Korea or Pakistan (the Gauri-II) and figuring out how to put nuclear warheads on them (harder than it sounds) would make them a significant threat in the Middle East.

No, they are not even close to being able to develop ICBMs that could reach Europe or the US.

By the way, why the grousing about US foreign policy for the last 100 years? Most of the US foreign policy problems in the last 50 years has been because of the mistaken belief that we could fix the mistakes European countries made in the first 50 years of the 20th century.
 
  • #56
Even if they did mount a nuclear warhead on a Shahab-3, I would not want to be the corporal that has to stand near that thing during launch. Their success rate is far from 100%. :rolleyes:
 
  • #57
Update

An article from the BBC:
Rice: Iran is terrorism 'banker'
By Pam O'Toole
BBC News
The US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, has continued her diplomatic offensive against Iran.

She has accused Tehran of being the central banker for terrorism around the world and working with Syria to destabilise the Middle East.

Ms Rice was testifying before the Senate Budget Committee in Washington.

On Wednesday, she announced that the US administration would request an extra $75m from Congress to promote democratic change inside Iran.

Condoleezza Rice said Washington had worked very hard to build an international coalition to confront what she described as Iran's aggressive policies, particularly its nuclear programme.

However, she stressed it was not just Tehran's nuclear policies which were concerning, but also what she described as its support for terrorism.

Iran, she alleged, was the central banker for terrorism around the world and was working with Syria to destabilise the Middle East.

Washington has long accused Tehran of trying to undermine the Middle East peace process and of interfering in countries like Iraq, charges Iran denies.

Ms Rice also again criticised Tehran's record on human rights and democracy.

More: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4722498.stm

Umm, does any of this sound familiar? Do you think we are being prepared to accept the next 'war for liberty and democratic rights' on the grounds that Iran's is a 'terrorist' government that is also guilty of 'serious human rights abuses' against its nationals? And it's not (shock, horror!) 'democratric'! (Sorry, but I really have to laugh cynically about this one - because, of course, the Bush administration's version of 'democracy' is so, so warped).

So for all these 'reasons', Iran must be destroyed (err, sorry, I meant 'liberated').

Well, what do you all think? Is the wool being pulled over our eyes again - in exactly the same way (no WMDs in Iraq, remember!)?

Oh boy, I hate this. I can just see what's coming. I feel so, so sorry for the tens of thousands of innocent people in Iran who are going to die and suffer as a result of this. Are these criminals against humanity not at all stoppable? I guess not. We have to play this out right to the end, and the end could be much more devastating and widespread than anyone would care to imagine.
 
  • #58
Thanks for the link, very interesting. The US's foreign policy should be questioned, it is somewhat undiplomatic to say the least and has been for quite a while. Now it resorts to propoganda to start wars mislead and generally force through hidden agendas. I'm not saying Europe doesn't make mistakes, I'm just saying that using that to absolve the US of mistakes is a two wrongs make a right argument that is without merit. It's a good job your more level headed ally is making some decisions, because America has a hard time being told not to do anything. I think it looks at UN as a sort of Father figure, yeah what do you know old man, I'll do what I damn well please I don't need your blessing?:rolleyes: :biggrin:

The US does to some extent need to start listening to people outside of the US, going nah nah nah and putting your fingers in your ears and doing whatever you like regardless is not going to make you many firends. Diplomacy believe it or not is a two way process. You want to change a situation: going in guns blazing is not always the best solution in fact it seldom is; I think your government would do well to remember that.

Ok Patronising monologue over, back to the topic:biggrin:
 
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  • #59
Schrodinger's Dog said:
The US does to some extent need to start listening to people outside of the US, going nah nah nah and putting your fingers in your ears and doing whatever you like regardless is not going to make you many firends. Diplomacy believe it or not is a two way process. You want to change a situation: going in guns blazing is not always the best solution in fact it seldom is; I think your government would do well to remember that.

Ok Patronising monologue over, back to the topic:biggrin:
Schrodinger's Dog, there's a problem with this theory, though - all the US administration's allies are now on the bandwagon: Germany, France, the UK, etc... My only hope is that China will step in and say, "No, no, naughty boys - don't do that, or you'll pay". The Russian Federation's government is also being a bit hesitant. And then there's Venezuela, but its government is powerless in the Security Council. China isn't powerless, though. Check out this link: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4662676.stm
 
  • #60
I was referring to the Iraq war in that, as to the current situation I don't believe for a mintue Iran is any threat to any country as regards nukes, if I see some evidence to the contrary then I'll make a judgement then. ATM I really have a hard time believeing the sort of rhetoric coming from America, and threads like this are not making it any easier to take what they are saying seriously. Sorry but I'm on the fence on this one, feel free to make your own judgements but after Iraq I'm not taking anything for granted until I see direct evidence that they are absolutely developing tac nukes or ICBM's or even the technology to make them? You maybe right but then again? Waiting for the proof is not a bad idea I think.
 
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  • #61
Schrodinger's Dog said:
I was referring to the Iraq war in that, as to the current situation I don't believe for a mintue Iran is any threat to any country as regards nukes, if I see some evidence to the contrary then I'll make a judgement then. ATM I really have a hard time believeing the sort of rhetoric coming from America, and threads like this are not making it any easier to take what they are saying seriously. Sorry but I'm on the fence on this one, feel free to make your own judgements but after Iraq I'm not taking anything for granted until I see direct evidence that they are absolutely developing tac nukes or ICBM's or even the technology to make them? You maybe right but then again? Waiting for the proof is not a bad idea I think.
I totally agree with everything you say, Schrodinger's Dog! I feel exactly the same way. But I think the US administration's European allies are not saying 'wait for proof': they're ready to back up the US administration's decision without proof - perhaps even to go along with whatever propaganda is being spread in preparation for what's coming. Only China and Russia are holding back judgement (China more so than Russia).
 
  • #62
alexandra said:
I totally agree with everything you say, Schrodinger's Dog! I feel exactly the same way. But I think the US administration's European allies are not saying 'wait for proof': they're ready to back up the US administration's decision without proof - perhaps even to go along with whatever propaganda is being spread in preparation for what's coming.

Oh, as long as it is paperwork and sanctions and stuff like that, why not, if that can please the US. But I don't think ONE SECOND that any European country is going to align one single soldier for any action in Iran.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4662676.stm

Not even the UK is supporter for any military interaction. Of course, we all would like to persuade Iran to back off with the nuclear programme, because it is not in any European countries' advantage to have a nuclear Iran. So as far as rethoric is concerned, all have loud voices. But there will be not much more than some diplomatic action. And I think that the Iranians know that. But it pleases Washington. So the Europeans try to make both parties happy (knowing that nothing serious against Iran will be undertaken anyways, thanks to the Chinese and Russians).
Honestly, I don't think the Europeans are lying awake about a nuclear Iran.
 
  • #63
I am curious as to why ya'll think nothing (militarily) will happen against Iran?

Do you mean that no multilateral (US, UK, France, Germany) military action will take place against Iran or that no military action at all (unilateral or otherwise [including by Israel or US]) will take place against Iran?

If it's the latter, then I think I disagree with you - depending on the time frame we're speaking of - but I'm interested to hear your reasoning.
 
  • #64
jhe1984 said:
I am curious as to why ya'll think nothing (militarily) will happen against Iran?

Do you mean that no multilateral (US, UK, France, Germany) military action will take place against Iran or that no military action at all (unilateral or otherwise [including by Israel or US]) will take place against Iran?

If it's the latter, then I think I disagree with you - depending on the time frame we're speaking of - but I'm interested to hear your reasoning.
Good question, jhe1984. I think there's a very high probability that unilateral military action will be taken, unfortunately - as you say, either by Israel, or by the US. Sometimes I just lose sight of reality and *wish* something could be done to prevent foreseeable horrors: this was such a case. As you point out, though, although China and Russia have leverage in the Security Council, they can do nothing about preventing any state from taking unilateral military action against Iran. So I guess no matter what, it's going to happen.

Vanesch, I agree with the points you make too. I don't think there will be military support for this one (at least not initially); I don't see European countries sending in troops. However, once the ball gets rolling, everything will change in the ME and it is difficult to predict the result - there is a very real possibility that the entire ME will be destabilised to the point where there will be a quantitively different situation which may become impossible to control. Chain reaction...
 
  • #65
I'm hoping people just aren't that stupid, but then this is people we're talking about, this isn't another Iraq the US is going to have a much harder task of trying to convince people than the last time after the Iraq debacle came to light.

I wouldn't expect military action any time soon, and I'm hoping not at all. But then with the idiots in the whitehouse, and I do most assuredly mean idiots, then anything could happen, we're not dealing with particularly diplomaticaly astute people here, they think war is the best way to keep peace in the middle East, then they are in for a rather rude awakening.

Sadly I don't think the blinkered attitude the US takes sometimes to outside criticism will change in the near future, and I think it's going to take a long time before the US realizes it can't solve all it's issues by making threats and going to war. As if it's previous cock ups aren't enough, it seems doomed to repeate it's cataclsmic blunders in the naive sense that somehow this time it's going to work? :rolleyes: :confused:

Who's next in the middle East, how many hornets nests can we stir up to try and create stability and increase the flow of oil?
 
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  • #66
Well, it does seem likely that we'll know in a few days (possibly weeks) time. Tomorrow (or actually in a few hours, depending on your time zone), an Iranian delegation will arrive in Moscow to try and hash out a version of the Moscow nuclear solution (whereby Russia enriches the uranium and sends it back to Tehran) that is suitable to the Iranians.

IMO, this is the last real opportunity for either side to hash out a workable solution. Beyond this, any solution Iran chooses to proceed with will ultimately be unacceptable to the West and the Western solutions will have been all but rejected by Tehran. Not that there couldn't be any temporary stopgap measures (like resuming snap inspections), but the Russian proposal is the only currently available solution whereby Iran produces nuclear energy in a way suitable to the west.

Since I don't think it behooves Tehran to go to war (although if it is just a matter of getting their nuclear facilities bombed, that could actually bolster their credibility) if war means regime change, I am thinking that something will come out of Monday's meeting. They've got a lot to gain if they setttle - 100+ Billion dollar Chinese gas deal, Indo-Paki pipeline, no sanctions, Russian collaboration and possibly JVs - while playing hardball could turn out poorly for them. Settling on monday is the safest smart play, but who knows - it's the middle east. :rolleyes:

If not, March 6 (I think) is the IAEA report to the UNSC and March is also the date mentioned by the head of Israeli Military Intelligence as their estimate as to when Iran could have nuclear weapons potential. So from there on, things are rather touch-and-go. That's kind of why I think something will get settled soon.
 
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  • #67
All of that said, if this week comes and goes with no Iranian solution, we should all pool our money and invest in crude oil. That way, when the sh*t hits the fan, PF will own a new plasma screen tv or two. :wink:
 
  • #68
Good idea let's artificially send the price of crude through the roof now, so the oil companies can't do it later and blame it on the Iranian war; I like your thinking:wink:

Preemptive strike.

Why does Iran need a regime change, the entire country is based around a theocracy that they are all happy with? And if not then they'll overthrow it? Democracy isn't going to work in Iran? It may work in Iraq due to the diversity of religion, and a large secular population. But Irans rulers are all Sunnis? The idea of not being subject directly to God rule is an anathema to them? If it's not broken why are you thinking it needs fixing? They are ruled by the direct descendants of Muhammed and they are perfectly happy with that, what makes you think any other regime will hold any alure to the people?

The population has the same rights to overthrow its government as any country, the fact they have not done so means they are at least content with the current situation, why meddle in their affairs?
 
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  • #69
jhe1984 said:
I am curious as to why ya'll think nothing (militarily) will happen against Iran?

Do you mean that no multilateral (US, UK, France, Germany) military action will take place against Iran or that no military action at all (unilateral or otherwise [including by Israel or US]) will take place against Iran?

The first, for sure. I think that what divided Europe concerning the Iraq intervention is not going to work anymore. The European nations being part of the anti-Irak coalition (except maybe for Poland - who regretted its decision) did so essentially to *please* Washington (it is always - or it used to be - politically and economically interesting for a European country to please Washington. Especially with Germany and France OUT of the game, smaller players saw the opportunity to take a bigger piece of Washington's cake). I don't even think that ONE single European nation - except for Poland - thought that it WAS A GOOD IDEA to go to Irak. The Polish got seduced by the idea of "liberating" a country - given their recent history, that was understandable. Afterwards, they said they regretted their decision - which was based on misleading information. I think that about every European nation that got involved in Iraq dearly regretted it - so they're not going to repeat the error.

Concerning the latter, I don't know how silly Mr. Bush is, but I really don't think he has any desire to go through the SAME adventure again. I do NOT exclude a few targetted strikes on facilities, but that's about it - and it would even be a very dangerous game. Of course, we won't know if he's just pumping up the rethoric or whether he'll push the button for real until he pushes it. But he's in a far worse shape to do so than before the Iraq invasion. I don't think that the US opinion is ready for a second war ride ; he already cried wolf before.
I seriously exclude any grand scale invasion, and I also exclude a nuclear attack on Iran. He might say so, he might spin his rethoric in all possible directions, but I don't think, if there is an ounce of reason left in the man, that he'll push the button. Because it wouldn't even help anything. It would make things much worse for the US - as did the Iraq invasion.

Israel is less clear. Again, a few strikes are possible. But Israel doesn't have the conventional means to go at full scale war to Iran, has problems enough at home, and I don't think that Israel will nuke Iran.

Any country that will, as "pre-emptive strike", use a nuclear weapon on a country *that didn't even commit any explicit act of war* will be considered, by the rest of the world, as a paria and a terrorist state. The consequences for that country will be very negative in any case. For instance, I don't think that any Arab regime would be able to justify any further economic contact with such a country, meaning essentially that the said country will be oil-dry. But even the EU might decide on economic boycot of the said country, and India, China, Russia, Japan might follow. That's why I don't think that any regime where the leader has one ounce of reason left, will do so. It would be economical suicide at least. How can you possibly argue that you need to *nuke a country* for it not to try to have what you are planning to USE ?

There is even another strategic reason NOT to go to war with Iran, and that is the stability of the regime in Pakistan. Mucharraff's position becomes very difficult - if it were a democracy, it would have turned already for a long time into a more theocratic regime. Now, Pakistan HAS nukes, and it is sufficient for a regime change there to be in the situation that the US wants to avoid: a Muslim theocracy with nukes. Now, if the neighbour Iran becomes unstable, or if it is attacked, this might make the Pakistani population so nervous that they get rid of their (US-friendly) dictator and apply the theocratic domino effect. And they HAVE nukes already. In that case, an Iran invasion to avoid *the potential development of nukes* would lead to a theocratic regime change in a country that HAS nukes, thus being at the opposite of the original reason for invasion.

That's why I think that if the US gouvernment is not totally nuts, it's NOT going to do much (except maybe the bombings of a few facilities).
 
  • #70
Schrodinger's Dog said:
Why does Iran need a regime change, the entire country is based around a theocracy that they are all happy with? And if not then they'll overthrow it? Democracy isn't going to work in Iran?

Technically, Iran IS a democracy. Let's not forget that they recently ELECTED their president:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_presidential_election,_2005

The political system of Iran is described here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran#Government_and_Politics

There's not much to be said about the non-democratic character of these elections. Say what you want, but this guy REALLY GOT ELECTED - even though there were some claims for irregularities, but irregularities to curb people's opinions, not voting fraud. Some liberal candidates were not allowed to run, but that doesn't mean that the current president was not people's desire. There was room to elect a less radical president (like Rafsanjani), but the hardliner did get elected.
 
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  • #71
vanesch, I wish *you* were ruling the world - I'd feel a lot safer, and I'd be able to get some sleep too!
 
  • #72
alexandra said:
vanesch, I wish *you* were ruling the world

I'm working on it :biggrin: :biggrin: :smile: :smile:
 
  • #73
vanesch said:
I'm working on it :biggrin: :biggrin: :smile: :smile:
I think we should all help you become Grand Ruler of the World! A worthy PF community project - just say what needs doing :smile:
 
  • #74
alexandra said:
I think we should all help you become Grand Ruler of the World! A worthy PF community project - just say what needs doing :smile:


Ok, let's start by nuking out all those that do not agree with me :biggrin: :smile: :smile:
 
  • #75
vanesch said:
Ok, let's start by nuking out all those that do not agree with me :biggrin: :smile: :smile:
:eek: :eek: :bugeye:
 
  • #76
Not to give into your nuclear blackmail, but I think you're essentially right. I too doubt any sort of large scale invasion: I simply don't think we've got the troop capacity, equipment readiness, etc to do it - unless it became absolutely urgent. We might differ on the likelihood of a major strategic air campaign (I think it is almost guaranteed if the Moscow deal doesn't work), but yeah for the most part any sort of grand coalition isn't likely.

PS - I'm coming to your country in July, so save some bird flu for me!
 
  • #77
jhe1984 said:
We might differ on the likelihood of a major strategic air campaign (I think it is almost guaranteed if the Moscow deal doesn't work), but yeah for the most part any sort of grand coalition isn't likely.

A *major* air campaign, I don't see where that can lead the US. It is in any case an act of war, with lots of civil casualties. It would even be considered as an act of state terrorism: bombing the s**t out of a population in order to obtain political change induced by terrorising a population. And it won't work: the Iranian population supports their regime, and any aggression will only reinforce the support for the regime. So the net result would simply be some more hatred towards the West and a stronger regime in Teheran. And it is not even said that all facilities are taken out.
However, tactically taking out some facilities, that's something else. The number of casualties would be low, and it would slow down the technical advancement of the programme (although it would probably re-inforce the political will to do so). For instance, I'm pretty sure some cruise missiles will hit that enrichment factory, if nothing else. But then, the Iranians are not stupid, and have probably other such facilities elsewhere, so the hit would be largely symbolic. It could then go both ways: the Iranian leadership might harden its position (probably), or it might realize that they are not so invulnerable as they thought, and back off a bit.

However, given their current attitude, I think they have been "war gaming" a lot in Teheran, and they came to the conclusion that nothing really bad is going to happen to them, because the other side worked itself each time into more troubles. And I think they are right. I also think that their negotiation with Moscou is seen in a wrong light. The US seems to think that the Iranians got a bit scared and might be, finally, backing off. However, I think the Iranians and the Russians are simply trying to find out how they can get most out of a common deal. The Russians couldn't care less about a nuclear Iran (they probably even like it that it pisses off the west). But they might like to play a more important role as "buddy" of the Iranians, and hence get a major partner in the ME back. And the Iranians might like the fact that they have the opportunity to improve their relationships with the Russians - always good to have. So as long as it doesn't stop them from achieving their goals (which is, I think, to become nuclear, so that they do not have to be affraid for a US invasion anymore, or any other invasion, and have regional power status), they might adapt their plans to be buddy-buddy with the Russians. And if they both could laugh in the face of the West, that's always some fun to take.
Also, a nuclear agreement with the russians, with russian experts coming and so on, do you really think that that will *slow down* their weapon development ? No matter what is stated officially... who knows, the deal could even include some exchange of a few nukes of russian fabric.
 
  • #78
I meant major in the sense of a lot of ordnance dropped on the nuclear facilities (and perhaps relevant air defense systems). I do not believe at all that the US'd bomb Tehran (even gov't buildings) or any major metropolitian area - they'd lose what little support they had, even in the USG.

"Major" in the sense that it's B-2s and not just cruise missiles.
 
  • #79
jhe1984 said:
I meant major in the sense of a lot of ordnance dropped on the nuclear facilities (and perhaps relevant air defense systems). I do not believe at all that the US'd bomb Tehran (even gov't buildings) or any major metropolitian area - they'd lose what little support they had, even in the USG.

"Major" in the sense that it's B-2s and not just cruise missiles.

Yes, that's a possibility. I haven't gotten any idea what material the US would use, but I meant, just tactical take-outs of facilities.
Nevertheless, I doubt about their "productivity". It would probably NOT harm seriously the capacity of the Iranians to proceed, it would increase their determination, and it would tarnish even more the US image in the ME (and elsewhere). In other words, it wouldn't achieve much except making people nervous, and probably introduce an ecological disaster locally. It would just satisfy those who think that "something" ought to be done - which might be a sufficient reason.
 
  • #80
vanesch said:
Yes, that's a possibility. I haven't gotten any idea what material the US would use, but I meant, just tactical take-outs of facilities.
Nevertheless, I doubt about their "productivity". It would probably NOT harm seriously the capacity of the Iranians to proceed, it would increase their determination, and it would tarnish even more the US image in the ME (and elsewhere). In other words, it wouldn't achieve much except making people nervous, and probably introduce an ecological disaster locally. It would just satisfy those who think that "something" ought to be done - which might be a sufficient reason.
If the US were to bomb strategic sites in Iran it is very likely the Iranians will retaliate with missile strikes against US forces in Iraq and possibly against Israel too. If America hits back then in no time you have a fully fledged war if they don't they look weak. So although the US may want a short sharp air campaign the Iranians may not be accommodating especially as they would probably have the support of the shi'ites in Iraq which would mean the insurgency there would treble.

The problem with taking aggressive action is unfortunately you can't rely on the other side to behave as you would wish.
 
  • #81
jhe1984 said:
"Major" in the sense that it's B-2s and not just cruise missiles.

Since we employ both as a package, what's minor? In fact, if we break that package apart, we'd still have to deploy a surface action group to the Gulf of Oman at least to get within extreme range of Iran's northeastern interior.
 
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  • #82
Art said:
If the US were to bomb strategic sites in Iran it is very likely the Iranians will retaliate with missile strikes against US forces in Iraq and possibly against Israel too. If America hits back then in no time you have a fully fledged war if they don't they look weak.

The target list would presumably include Iran's missile cache, if only to keep the Gulf open.

So although the US may want a short sharp air campaign the Iranians may not be accommodating especially as they would probably have the support of the shi'ites in Iraq which would mean the insurgency there would treble.

I've seen no evidence that SCIRI, Da'wa or even the Sadrists have any intentions of fighting a war on the Persians behalf. What've you seen?

The problem with taking aggressive action is unfortunately you can't rely on the other side to behave as you would wish.

Which is why you hit them hard enough so that they do behave as you wish.
 
  • #83
crazycalhoun said:
The target list would presumably include Iran's missile cache, if only to keep the Gulf open.
Assuming they know where they all are and that Iran are stupid enough not to conceal them. :biggrin:



crazycalhoun said:
I've seen no evidence that SCIRI, Da'wa or even the Sadrists have any intentions of fighting a war on the Persians behalf. What've you seen?
BAGHDAD, Jan. 23 -- An Iraqi Muslim cleric who leads a major Shiite militia pledged to come to the defense of neighboring Iran if it were attacked, aides to the cleric, Moqtada Sadr, said Monday.

The commitment, made Sunday in Tehran during a visit by Sadr, came in response to a senior Iranian official's query about what the cleric would do in the event of an attack on Iran. It marked the first open indication that Iraq's Shiite neighbor is preparing for a military response if attacked in a showdown with the West over its nuclear program.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/23/AR2006012301701.html


crazycalhoun said:
Which is why you hit them hard enough so that they do behave as you wish.
It hasn't worked too well in Iraq. :rolleyes:
 
  • #85
Art said:
If the US were to bomb strategic sites in Iran it is very likely the Iranians will retaliate with missile strikes against US forces in Iraq and possibly against Israel too.

That's why I said that even that is a dangerous game, and that I think that the Iranians have been wargaming enough over the issue to be rather confident that nothing much beyond rethoric is going to happen. A full scale war with Iran is the last thing the US needs (even if it is only not to get Muscharaf in too deep doodoo).

That said, it is not sure that the Iranians are going to retalliate openly after a minor strike, but they might become a bit more subversive in Iraq, something the US could not really afford. Again, if the US government has an ounce of reason left, they are going to stick with rethoric, and maybe a few sanctions (of which the Russians will make some good use to get more influence in the region).
 
  • #86
vanesch said:
That's why I said that even that is a dangerous game, and that I think that the Iranians have been wargaming enough over the issue to be rather confident that nothing much beyond rethoric is going to happen.

By that reasoning, Hussein should've been scared witless by his wargames. :biggrin:

A full scale war with Iran is the last thing the US needs (even if it is only not to get Muscharaf in too deep doodoo).

Why not? You've got four divisions of battle hardened force sitting in Iraq, and another division in Afghanistan.
 
  • #87
crazycalhoun said:
Sure it did. That's why we were in the capital within three weeks.

The situation was totally different. Iraq was weakened and surveyed for about 10 years. You were in the capital in 3 weeks (heh, you're still there :-) mainly because the military on the other side QUIT. You were in the country of a secular dictator which wasn't liked much by its population.

This time you face an *elected* government, with religious leaders which have popular support. They are not going to quit so easily. You'd need a massive occupation force to work against the web of resistance made up by religious leaders, mosquees, and just the people there. It's not "taking out a few bad guys". It's overthrowing a popular political system... to put what in place ? Elections ? What are you going to do, once you're in, with your 500000 soldiers ?
 
  • #88
crazycalhoun said:
Why not? You've got four divisions of battle hardened force sitting in Iraq, and another division in Afghanistan.

Ok, and while they are fighting in Iran, what's then going to happen in Iraq ?
 
  • #89
jhe1984 said:
Not to give into your nuclear blackmail, but I think you're essentially right. I too doubt any sort of large scale invasion: I simply don't think we've got the troop capacity, equipment readiness, etc to do it - unless it became absolutely urgent. We might differ on the likelihood of a major strategic air campaign (I think it is almost guaranteed if the Moscow deal doesn't work), but yeah for the most part any sort of grand coalition isn't likely.

PS - I'm coming to your country in July, so save some bird flu for me!

Sorry we haven't got any bird flu yet. Just the mundane type.

I think personally America should just invade the whole middle east and be done with it. Seems like that's what they're are going to do sooner or later. Then they can claim that terror has been beaten and have a nice source of oil for the next 50-100 years till it runs out:wink:
 
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  • #90
crazycalhoun said:
Which is why you reconnoiter. Worked well enough in Iraq.
Actually it didn't. Most of Iraq's missile technology was destroyed under the weapons inspection program, not through military attacks.

crazycalhoun said:
:confused: Are you suggesting Sadr doesn't speak for his followers? Or do you just have a problem in acknowledging when you are wrong? :rolleyes:

crazycalhoun said:
Sure it did. That's why we were in the capital within three weeks.
Dream on... :smile:
 
  • #91
Art said:
Actually it didn't. Most of Iraq's missile technology was destroyed under the weapons inspection program, not through military attacks.

I didn't know that most of Iraq's missile technology constituted IRBMs.

:confused: Are you suggesting Sadr doesn't speak for his followers?

I'm suggesting I've seen no evidence that the Sadrists will fight a war on the Persians behalf. If you have, feel free to present it.

Dream on... :smile:

Just helping you out with the facts, ma'am.
 
  • #92
vanesch said:
Ok, and while they are fighting in Iran, what's then going to happen in Iraq ?

Not sure what you mean.
 
  • #93
vanesch said:
The situation was totally different. Iraq was weakened and surveyed for about 10 years.

With all due respect, I think the Gulf War four years before Desert Storm could be viewed as having weakened Iran.

You were in the capital in 3 weeks (heh, you're still there :-) mainly because the military on the other side QUIT.

What can I say? They couldn't fight very well. Why would the Iranians be any different?

You were in the country of a secular dictator which wasn't liked much by its population.

And now the US can go up against a bunch of religious crackpots that aren't held in high esteem either. Either way, the opposition is the same old sad story. Political, unprofessional, poorly trained, and poorly equipped.

This time you face an *elected* government, with religious leaders which have popular support.

I think we'll disagree over whether Qom enjoys popular support, but our target isn't Qom or even their chemical and biological weapons. It's their nuclear weapons program we care about, and presumably the naval, air and land forces they intend to invest in protecting it.

They are not going to quit so easily.

Good. Maybe then they'll stay in tight enough groups to hammer easily.

You'd need a massive occupation force to work against the web of resistance made up by religious leaders, mosquees, and just the people there.

Why occupy? Why even go for regime change in this instance? Our objective is the destruction of Iranian special weapons.

What are you going to do, once you're in, with your 500000 soldiers ?

Try 215 thousand tops, and less than a 100 thousand of those attached to shooting units.
 
  • #94
crazycalhoun said:
I didn't know that most of Iraq's missile technology constituted IRBMs.
And like US intelligence at the time you probably didn't (and it seems still don't) know Iraq had the ability to build it's own indigenous SCUD missiles and thought all their stocks had come from the USSR. So much for the effectiveness of reconnoitring.


crazycalhoun said:
I'm suggesting I've seen no evidence that the Sadrists will fight a war on the Persians behalf. If you have, feel free to present it.
I did. Now you present something, other than your opinion, to the contrary.


crazycalhoun said:
Just helping you out with the facts, ma'am.
As with most of your assumptions you are wrong about the gender. And when you do deign to post a fact it is irrelevant to the discussion. :smile:
 
  • #95
Art said:
And like US intelligence at the time you probably didn't (and it seems still don't) know Iraq had the ability to build it's own indigenous SCUD missiles and thought all their stocks had come from the USSR. So much for the effectiveness of reconnoitring.

I'm not quite sure why you're telling me that yes, the Iraqis had al Husayns. My point addressed your contention that the bulk of Iraq's missile program was invested in IRBMs, not whether they had them.

I did. Now you present something, other than your opinion, to the contrary.

And once again, I said Sadrists, not Sadr. If you have any indication of the al Mahdi army preparing to defend Iran, then feel free to share it.

As with most of your assumptions you are wrong about the gender.

I think your gender is immaterial for the quip's purposes. I just liked Dragnet :biggrin:

And when you do deign to post a fact it is irrelevant to the discussion. :smile:

Of course, you're free to try and make that case. I don't think you can, though.
 
  • #96
crazycalhoun said:
I'm not quite sure why you're telling me that yes, the Iraqis had al Husayns. My point addressed your contention that the bulk of Iraq's missile program was invested in IRBMs, not whether they had them.
I didn't claim the bulk of Iraq's missile program was tied to IRBMs. You did. :rolleyes:

Al Husayns were modified imported SCUDs. The SCUDS they built themselves were short range missiles not intermediate range.

So returning to the point; most of Iraqs offensive special weapons capabilty was destroyed under the weapons inspection program not through military action.
Here's a hint - You might have noticed a few press clippings noting that no WMD have been found in Iraq so now think about why. :biggrin:

crazycalhoun said:
And once again, I said Sadrists, not Sadr. If you have any indication of the al Mahdi army preparing to defend Iran, then feel free to share it.
Unless you present evidence to the contrary it is reasonable to believe Sadr speaks for his followers.

crazycalhoun said:
I think your gender is immaterial for the quip's purposes. I just liked Dragnet :biggrin:
That was a quip?? Your sense of humour is as off the wall as your logic. :smile:
 
  • #97
Art said:
I didn't claim the bulk of Iraq's missile program was tied to IRBMs. You did. :rolleyes:

Um, no I didn't. You did. When you said that the bulk of Iraq's missile program had been destroyed by the inspectors.

Al Husayns were modified imported SCUDs. The SCUDS they built themselves were short range missiles not intermediate range.

Then we're talking about the al Samuds, which are not covered under 687 prohibitions.

So returning to the point; most of Iraqs offensive special weapons capabilty was destroyed under the weapons inspection program not through military action.

That we can definitely agree on.

Here's a hint - You might have noticed a few press clippings noting that no WMD have been found in Iraq so now think about why. :biggrin:

That, we may not.

Unless you present evidence to the contrary it is reasonable to believe Sadr speaks for his followers.

So if Sadr said the al Mahdi Army would slit their own throats at high noon, it's reasonable to believe he speaks for them in that case? Let's put it this way, the Sadrists have never fought for Iran. They weren't around at the time. And since SCIRI has apparently no intentions of fighting Teheran's battles for them, if you have reason to believe Sadr has that much control over the al Mahdi Army, then share it with us.

That was a quip?? Your sense of humour is as off the wall as your logic. :smile:

I'm sure you can resist the personal attacks. We're reportedly all grown ups here. :biggrin:
 
  • #98
crazycalhoun said:
Um, no I didn't. You did. When you said that the bulk of Iraq's missile program had been destroyed by the inspectors.

Then we're talking about the al Samuds, which are not covered under 687 prohibitions.
The standard unmodified SCUD had a range of 300 km the 687 prohibitions applied to any missile with a range greater than 150 km. The Al Samoud was claimed to slightly exceed this figure and so the weapons inspectors ordered the destruction of Iraq's inventory of 72 missiles and the destruction of the production equipment which they used to build solid rocket motors.



crazycalhoun said:
That, we may not.
Source please?



crazycalhoun said:
So if Sadr said the al Mahdi Army would slit their own throats at high noon, it's reasonable to believe he speaks for them in that case? Let's put it this way, the Sadrists have never fought for Iran. They weren't around at the time. And since SCIRI has apparently no intentions of fighting Teheran's battles for them, if you have reason to believe Sadr has that much control over the al Mahdi Army, then share it with us.
For the third and last time I have already shared it with you. Read the link I provided. Now if you have a source or ref to back up your opinion please post it.

crazycalhoun said:
I'm sure you can resist the personal attacks. We're reportedly all grown ups here. :biggrin:
Oh, so you don't like my humour either. :biggrin:
 
  • #99
Art said:
The standard unmodified SCUD had a range of 300 km the 687 prohibitions applied to any missile with a range greater than 150 km. The Al Samoud was claimed to slightly exceed this figure and so the weapons inspectors ordered the destruction of Iraq's inventory of 72 missiles and the destruction of the production equipment which they used to build solid rocket motors.

Those would be the al Samud 2 drives. And Iraq's arsenal, even in ISG's best case estimate, did not consisted of 121 such missiles, of which 22 were destroyed or captured during OIF. That still leaves 50 Al Samuds and 30 Al Fatahs.
 
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  • #100
crazycalhoun said:
Then we're talking about the al Samuds, which are not covered under 687 prohibitions.
I presume you now concede this statement was incorrect?
crazycalhoun said:
Those would be the al Samud 2 drives. And Iraq's arsenal, even in ISG's best case estimate, did not consisted of 121 such missiles, of which 22 were destroyed or captured during OIF. That still leaves 50 Al Samuds and 30 Al Fatahs.
I have no idea what your point is here but if you are arguing about the number I quoted here's a reference.

Missile
Iraq purchased considerable numbers of short-range Scud missiles and launchers from the Soviet Union beginning in the early 1970s. Towards the end of the Iran-Iraq War, Baghdad extended the range of the Scud to 650km; many of these modified missiles (known as the al-Husayn) were used during that war and, later, in Desert Storm. With extensive assistance from foreign companies, Iraq pursued a variety of other missile projects; these efforts were largely halted by UN weapon inspections that began in 1991. From 1991 to 1998, working under the proscriptions contained in the UN ceasefire resolution, Iraq developed various types of ballistic missiles with ranges of less than 150km, including the al-Ababil and the al-Samoud. During their time in Iraq, UNMOVIC inspectors destroyed 72 al-Samoud-2 missiles that violated the 150km-range limit, as well as certain equipment for the production of solid rocket motors.
http://www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/Iraq/
 
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