Poisson Distribution and slot machine

In summary, the problem deals with a casino slot machine that costs C dollars per play and generates a random variable X ~ Poisson with parameter λ < 1. The player wins X! (X factorial) dollars per play. The casino operators need to determine the value of C that will result in an expected winning sum of 0, so that they do not lose money. However, the expectation of X! is not equal to (expectation of X)! in general. Thus, the solution requires finding the sum of λ^k, which will result in the expected winning sum.
  • #1
blackle
8
0

Homework Statement



A casino slot machine costs C dollars per play. On each play, it generates random variable X ~ Poisson with parameter λ < 1, and pays the player X! (X factorial) dollars. As a function of the fixed parameters λ and C, how much money would you expect to win (or lose) per turn if you play? How much should the casino operators charge so that they don't lose money, i.e., what value of C should they use for a fixed λ? What if λ=1? Hint: E[X!] is not equal to (E[X])! in general.

The Attempt at a Solution



I am at a complete loss of how to solve this problem. The only think I can think of is that

a) How much money would you expect to win or lose per turn
(e^-λ)! - C

b) So the casino players should charge C = (e^-λ)!

I am really very confused with this question. Any help to point me to the correct direction of thinking would be appreciated. Thank you.
 
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  • #2
I don't have an answer, but here is an observation: the expectation of X! is
[tex]\mathbb{E}(X!)=\sum_{k=0}^{\infty}k!\cdot Pr(k\;|\;\lambda)=[/tex]
[tex] = \sum_{k=0}^{\infty}k!\cdot\dfrac{\lambda^k e^{-\lambda}}{k!}=e^{-\lambda}\sum_{k=0}^{\infty}\lambda^k[/tex]

If you know how this sum can be expressed, you got the expected winning sum.

Regards,
Joseph.
 

FAQ: Poisson Distribution and slot machine

What is the Poisson distribution?

The Poisson distribution is a probability distribution that is used to model the number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space, when the events are independent and the rate of occurrence is constant.

How is the Poisson distribution used in slot machines?

In slot machines, the Poisson distribution is used to calculate the probability of getting a certain number of winning combinations in a certain number of spins, based on the average number of winning combinations per spin and the number of spins played.

What factors affect the Poisson distribution in slot machines?

The Poisson distribution in slot machines can be affected by the payout rate, the number of reels and symbols, and the average number of winning combinations per spin. It can also be influenced by the programming of the slot machine and any biases or patterns in the random number generator.

How does the Poisson distribution relate to the concept of "hot" and "cold" slot machines?

The Poisson distribution does not support the concept of "hot" and "cold" slot machines. Each spin of a slot machine is an independent event and the probability of winning remains the same regardless of previous outcomes. The perceived "hot" or "cold" streaks are simply a result of random chance and human perception.

Is it possible to use the Poisson distribution to predict future outcomes in slot machines?

No, the Poisson distribution is a probability distribution and cannot predict future outcomes. It can only calculate the probability of certain events occurring based on past data. The outcome of each spin in a slot machine is still determined by a random number generator, making it impossible to accurately predict future outcomes.

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