- #1
musicgold
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- 19
Hi,
My question is about Russian roulette, a lethal game of chance. In brief, the participant place a single round in a revolver cylinder (which has 6 chambers), spins the cylinder, place the muzzle against his head and pull the trigger. For detailed information please follow this link - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_roulette" .
The following table describes the chances of getting hit if the game is conducted for 6 trials. I understand the survival probability column, which is calculated based on (1/6) ^ number of trial.
What I don’t understand is the Per Trial Hit probability. For example, the number is 13.9% for the second trial. It is the chance that the participant will get hit after the first trial and before the end of the second trial, i.e. 83.3% - 69.4% = 13.9%. I am trying to understand why the chance of getting hit between two trials is less than the chance of getting hit in every trial, i.e. 1/6 = 16.7%.
Thanks,
MG
My question is about Russian roulette, a lethal game of chance. In brief, the participant place a single round in a revolver cylinder (which has 6 chambers), spins the cylinder, place the muzzle against his head and pull the trigger. For detailed information please follow this link - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_roulette" .
The following table describes the chances of getting hit if the game is conducted for 6 trials. I understand the survival probability column, which is calculated based on (1/6) ^ number of trial.
PHP:
Trial Survival probability Per trial hit probability
1 83.3% 16.7%
2 69.4% 13.9%
3 57.9% 11.6%
4 48.2% 9.6%
5 40.2% 8.0%
6 33.5% 6.7%
What I don’t understand is the Per Trial Hit probability. For example, the number is 13.9% for the second trial. It is the chance that the participant will get hit after the first trial and before the end of the second trial, i.e. 83.3% - 69.4% = 13.9%. I am trying to understand why the chance of getting hit between two trials is less than the chance of getting hit in every trial, i.e. 1/6 = 16.7%.
Thanks,
MG
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