- #1
Shockwave
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A woman wants to estimate the number of fish remaining in a lake after an oil spill. She catches 50 fish and marks them. Later on, she again catches 50 fish and discovers that 10 of them are marked.
a. What is the probability of this later event if the lake contains n fish?
b. How can such data be used to estimate the number of fish remaining in the lake?
So suppose an isolated area has n creatures that we want to investigate.
She marked 50 fishes. Later she caught 50 and found 10 are tagged.
The probability of this happening is
(50 chooses 10)(n-50 chooses 40)/(n chooses 50)
Let's called the above probability f(n).
Of course, if there were n - 1 fishes, then f(n - 1) < f(n).
Using the inequality f(n - 1) < f(n), we should be able to solve for n.
Am I correct?
Thanks
a. What is the probability of this later event if the lake contains n fish?
b. How can such data be used to estimate the number of fish remaining in the lake?
So suppose an isolated area has n creatures that we want to investigate.
She marked 50 fishes. Later she caught 50 and found 10 are tagged.
The probability of this happening is
(50 chooses 10)(n-50 chooses 40)/(n chooses 50)
Let's called the above probability f(n).
Of course, if there were n - 1 fishes, then f(n - 1) < f(n).
Using the inequality f(n - 1) < f(n), we should be able to solve for n.
Am I correct?
Thanks