- #1
jduster
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My rule for presidential elections is: If the economy is well, voters will support the empowered party. If the economy is not well, voters will support the opposing party.
Historical Context
1956
Economy: Well
Eisenhower is re-elected.
1960
Economy: Had a little downturn near end of decade.
Kennedy is elected over Nixon.
1964
Economy: Well
Johnson is re-elected
1968 - Okay, Vietnam was a huge exception
1972
Economy: Well
Nixon re-elected
1976
Economy: Concerns of inflation
Ford loses to Carter.
1980
Economy: Stagflation
Reagan defeats Carter
1984
Economy: Recovery
Reagan re-elected by landslide
1988
Economy: Still well
Bush succeeds Reagan.
1992
Economy: Unemployment increases.
Bush, once considered unbeatable, loses to Clinton because of economic concerns.
1996
Economy: Well
Clinton is re-elected
2000
Economy: Well
Gore won the popular vote here.
2004
Economy: Recovered from post-9/11 recession
Bush gets re-elected
2008
Economy: Downturn
Obama defeats McCain. As the economy got worse, McCain's support fell.
2012
?
Essayist Paul Graham has a theory that charisma wins elections, but can any president in a bad economy be charismatic?
Obama's approval rating fell since he could not find an instant cure to the recession.
Reagan's approval dropped in 1983 when the economy went into a recession.
In 2012, the economy has gotten better, though only slightly, but has not recovered. Barack Obama has a huge warchest and a Republican Party which is extremely unpopular, so he could end up being an exception to my rule.
Historical Context
1956
Economy: Well
Eisenhower is re-elected.
1960
Economy: Had a little downturn near end of decade.
Kennedy is elected over Nixon.
1964
Economy: Well
Johnson is re-elected
1968 - Okay, Vietnam was a huge exception
1972
Economy: Well
Nixon re-elected
1976
Economy: Concerns of inflation
Ford loses to Carter.
1980
Economy: Stagflation
Reagan defeats Carter
1984
Economy: Recovery
Reagan re-elected by landslide
1988
Economy: Still well
Bush succeeds Reagan.
1992
Economy: Unemployment increases.
Bush, once considered unbeatable, loses to Clinton because of economic concerns.
1996
Economy: Well
Clinton is re-elected
2000
Economy: Well
Gore won the popular vote here.
2004
Economy: Recovered from post-9/11 recession
Bush gets re-elected
2008
Economy: Downturn
Obama defeats McCain. As the economy got worse, McCain's support fell.
2012
?
Essayist Paul Graham has a theory that charisma wins elections, but can any president in a bad economy be charismatic?
Obama's approval rating fell since he could not find an instant cure to the recession.
Reagan's approval dropped in 1983 when the economy went into a recession.
In 2012, the economy has gotten better, though only slightly, but has not recovered. Barack Obama has a huge warchest and a Republican Party which is extremely unpopular, so he could end up being an exception to my rule.