View Poll Results: Should the US government provide Pickens with the money and recources they need?
Absolutly -100% 9 47.37%
Thats a good idea but not now... 4 21.05%
Ok, but they're not gettin' my money 3 15.79%
Dont even bother.. 6 31.58%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 19. You may not vote on this poll

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Pickens Plan -alternative energy

by taylaron
Tags: alternative, energy, pickens, plan
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mheslep
#127
Aug6-08, 06:28 PM
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Quote Quote by mheslep View Post
Yes here it is:
Dr. Nocera said human activities, in energy terms, right now are essentially a 12.8 trillion watt light bulb. Our energy thirst will probably be 30 trillion watts, or 30 terrawatts, by 2050 with the human population heading toward 9 billion...
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/20...ad-to-the-sun/
I went over to EIA to check Nocera's prediction of 30TW in 2050. EIA has 2030 prediction numbers here (in Quad BTUs):
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/excel/figure_1data.xls
They have world wide energy at growing by 50% in 2030 with percentage growth slowing down slightly into the future. Extending that out to 2050 gives me a 77% increase, or a jump to 22.6 TW from the current 12.8. Nocera is high by ~8TW using EIA figures.
vanesch
#128
Aug6-08, 11:07 PM
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Quote Quote by mheslep View Post
I went over to EIA to check Nocera's prediction of 30TW in 2050. EIA has 2030 prediction numbers here (in Quad BTUs):
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/excel/figure_1data.xls
They have world wide energy at growing by 50% in 2030 with percentage growth slowing down slightly into the future. Extending that out to 2050 gives me a 77% increase, or a jump to 22.6 TW from the current 12.8. Nocera is high by ~8TW using EIA figures.
Yes, and he commits another error. This is *primary energy* use, while electricity is a substitute for end energy use. In almost all applications (and certainly in electricity generation, but also in locomotion, and even heat when you use heat pumps) you find a factor of about 3 between both.

That means that the *electrical* capacity you need to replace, say 18 TW primary energy, usually turns more around 6 TWe.

So it is not right to say that we'd need 30 TW of *electricity* in 2050 (even taking on his numbers) - we'd need around 10 TW, if we would do everything with electricity (and if we don't, well, then we don't need that electric capacity).
taylaron
#129
Aug8-08, 12:14 AM
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What potential do TED (thermo-electric devices) devices hold?
(correct me if i'm wrong) -I realize that the efficiency is wretched; but what is so horrible about TEDs? What is holding back the efficiency of these devices?

We've got plenty of hot/cold environments that can be used to power these devices. magma, water, etc..... we've got endless heat underground. why not?

---------------------------

I'm still prayin' for affordable 100% efficiency PV cells........ those new film types look very promising. Come on mass production!!!


why do you suppose Pickens wouldn't think TEDs weren't good enough to fund?
stewartcs
#130
Aug8-08, 07:42 AM
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Quote Quote by taylaron View Post
why do you suppose Pickens wouldn't think TEDs weren't good enough to fund?
Because he doesn't own any!

CS
Topher925
#131
Aug8-08, 07:58 AM
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What potential do TED (thermo-electric devices) devices hold?
Not much. TEDs, except for the radioactive ones, have like you said very poor efficiency. Not like 1 or 2% but like 0.01% if that. They are just not capable of producing large amounts of power given the resources required to make them work not to mention the cost of those resources. Would you rather pay $0.10/kwh for power from wind and solar or $8.00/kwh from a TED plant in a volcano?
mheslep
#132
Aug8-08, 11:23 AM
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Quote Quote by mheslep View Post
...That information is a bit dated, according to what I can find its more like 18% now for PV silicon crystals.
Misubishi 2007: 18%
http://www.solarbuzz.com./news/NewsASPT40.htm
Kyocera 2006: 18.5%
Sunpower 2008: 23.4%
http://www.solarbuzz.com./news/NewsNATE51.htm
Sunpower does residential installation through 3rd parties and will give you an estimate online:
http://www.sunpowercorp.com/For-Home...alculator.aspx

Worldwide nameplate prices:
Lowest Mono- Crystalline Module Price $4.35/Wp
Lowest Multi- Crystalline Module Price $4.17/Wp
Lowest Thin Film Module price $3.72/Wp
http://www.solarbuzz.com/
....
I should add that per the blogosphere the 20% panels are running $8/W, I don't have any other direct price information from those vendors. The panels driving the worldwide prices above are apparently ~10-12% efficient. Of course one would save on installation costs w/ the more efficient panels (less area required for a given power requirement).

Here's an informative cost breakdown graph. Installation etc = Total cost - module cost
http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/emp/reports/59282-es.pdf
Attached Thumbnails
SolarPanelCosts.png  
taylaron
#133
Aug18-08, 02:16 PM
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so full spectrum PV films are unlikely to be cost-competitive within the next 5-10 years?
taylaron
#134
Sep16-08, 11:35 PM
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I keep hearing about Pickens' move towards Natural Gas Vehicles; but I also hear that there is not enough natural gas to supply the united states with the fuel they need (without monopolizing the market with foreign NG).
Is there truth in this gossip? Can the USA provide enough NG to power the majority of vehicles?
stewartcs
#135
Sep17-08, 07:22 AM
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Quote Quote by taylaron View Post
I keep hearing about Pickens' move towards Natural Gas Vehicles; but I also hear that there is not enough natural gas to supply the united states with the fuel they need (without monopolizing the market with foreign NG).
Is there truth in this gossip? Can the USA provide enough NG to power the majority of vehicles?
Well I know there is a huge amount of Natural Gas off of the coast of the Carolinas and Virginia. If the current prohibitions on drilling there were lifted, it would make a significant impact I think. Don't know if it would be enough to supply the entire US though.

CS
dlgoff
#136
Sep17-08, 06:15 PM
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There seems to be a lot of gas fields in the US. Check out these maps from the Energy Information Administration.
mheslep
#137
Sep17-08, 08:43 PM
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Quote Quote by taylaron View Post
I keep hearing about Pickens' move towards Natural Gas Vehicles; but I also hear that there is not enough natural gas to supply the united states with the fuel they need (without monopolizing the market with foreign NG).
Is there truth in this gossip? Can the USA provide enough NG to power the majority of vehicles?
Pickens would not power all vehicles w/ NG nor does he claim to zero out foreign oil imports. Pickens proposes the following:
Currently 22% of US electric power comes from NG. He would take all of that NG producing electricity, replace it with wind generation, and use it instead as transportation fuel. If successful that would reduce foreign imports of oil by 38% and thereby allow ~$300B/yr of the total $700B/yr going to foreign oil suppliers to stay in the US.
http://www.pickensplan.com/index.php
Given the recent opening of shale NG fields, the US could keep this up for at least a of couple decades given its domestic NG reserves, which are now twice the size of US oil reserves (per unit of energy).
mheslep
#138
Oct17-08, 05:55 PM
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Sterling Energy Systems made the news by setting a new solar-to-grid efficiency record of 31.25 percent for commercially available solar thermal systems. Its notable that the sterling engine approach is closed, so it doesnt require large amounts of water as some other solar thermal systems.
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008...ing_energy.php
http://pesn.com/2008/07/14/9501487_S...hermal_record/

From the sources I have that compares to other solar technology as follows:
Research:
Multijunction (multi band gap) concentrator PV: 40.7%

Commercial:
SES Sterling engine concentrator: 31.3%
Multijunction (multi band gap) concentrator PV(expensive): ~30%
Traditional Monocystalline Si PV: 11-16%
Thin Film a-Si, CdTe, CIS, CIGS PV (lowest cost): 5-8%
http://www.solarbuzz.com/technologies.htm
http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy07osti/42276.pdf
mheslep
#139
Nov15-08, 10:04 AM
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Quote Quote by tommygreen View Post
Woah!!! this is really shocking... how can this be stopped?? Well it is high time something has been done for this....
Why are maps of gas fields shocking?
russ_watters
#140
Nov15-08, 10:57 AM
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And what should be done about it?


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