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YOU!: Fix the US Energy Crisis |
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| Jul6-09, 03:25 PM | #426 |
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YOU!: Fix the US Energy Crisis
Another interview with the Better Place battery swap people, suggests they would include a switches to different batter sizes:
A 50-mile battery drops the total battery depreciation plus energy cost to $0.06/mile* versus a combustion fuel 30 mpg vehicle cost of twice that, $0.10/mile. *($400/kWh - 3000 cycle battery, 0.19 kWh/mi tank-to-wheel, $0.09/kWh electricity) |
| Jul13-09, 10:35 PM | #427 |
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A Berkley study came out today that backs the battery rental/ exchange approach to all electric vehicles.
3rd party summary: |
| Jul15-09, 01:12 PM | #428 |
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The Berkeley study, Exhibit 5, predicts the point where half of US light vehicle new sales are EVs will be reached in 10-11 years given acceptance of battery lease and exchange paradigms, and nearly twice that long if it is not. That's in-line with what some companies have been saying. I'll go further here and say that, if battery lease & exchange is accepted, that we'll see the point where EVs are half of all new vehicle sales in at least one [smaller] country in 5-6 years
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| Aug4-09, 03:59 PM | #429 |
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Nissan announces their EV, which when released in 2012 would make it the first mass market EV in 90 years.
http://blogs.motortrend.com/6537775/...-ev/index.html They seemed to have dumped the idea of on-the-fly battery swap stations, or any connection with third party battery lease companies. The quick charge feature is nice, but it is no replacement for a 2-3 minute fill up and go, and that situation will not improve, rather it will get worse with bigger batteries. |
| Aug23-09, 10:38 AM | #430 |
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Toyota recently announced they will be delaying the release of any all electric cars and will currently focus on hybrids (series/plug-in hybrids) until at least 2012. Also, they have been showing off their fuel cell vehicles to help promote the technology. It seems that this is the same path that GM is taking as well. A smart move for both companies in my opinion.
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| Aug23-09, 07:46 PM | #431 |
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| Aug23-09, 09:59 PM | #432 |
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| Sep5-09, 05:58 PM | #433 |
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The post office just published a study on the feasibility of making its local delivery fleet of 146,000 vehicles electric. It's a nearly ideal case. First, daily range for the USPS vans is short, averaging only 18 miles per day, 97% of the fleet is less than 40 miles, and they park at night. Second, the stop/go pattern means the current combustion vehicles average ~10mpg in making the rounds allowing a large savings of 28 cents per mile in a replacement EV van, or $1500 per year per USPS van.
Their costs assumptions are shown below, which look reasonable to me, though I believe their battery replacement rate is too high at five years. A nine to ten year life with a daily full discharge/charge cycle is more reasonable for their use case. Of course the USPS is $7B in the hole/yr so they can't afford new anything. http://www.uspsoig.gov/FOIA_files/DA-WP-09-001.pdf |
| Sep8-09, 12:56 AM | #434 |
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But it looks like the Feds will be spending more money on it, and other programs:
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| Sep8-09, 01:19 AM | #435 |
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| Sep9-09, 08:28 AM | #436 |
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To make better biofuels, researchers add hydrogen
http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-10344817-54.html https://inlportal.inl.gov/portal/ser...ID=3076&mode=2 There are other processes for producing fuels from biomass. It looks like gasoline will stay around $3/gal for the forseeable future. The supply is restricted in line with demand and OPEC and the other oil producers are comfortable for now with oil at around $70/bbl. |
| Sep9-09, 12:29 PM | #437 |
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2009:$60.89/bbl petroleum 2010:91.08 2011:104.74 2012:118.35 2013:131.38 2014:145.80 2015:157.23 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/excel/aeohptab_12.xls My reading of various sources is that world wide oil production is going to stay roughly flat at 85m bbls/day for some time: the numerous new finds are just balancing out the depletion of older fields. However, there is no such cap on the petroleum demand in China and India, and Asia in general is already growing briskly again. |
| Sep12-09, 03:37 PM | #438 |
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Gads. $1.28 per kJoule! This means to absorb the energy of a 3500 lb vehicle from 35 mph to zero will only cost $250, vs. $55,000 in 1996. I should really double check that calculation. If true, my hobby just got a lot simpler. |
| Sep12-09, 07:44 PM | #439 |
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| Sep12-09, 11:45 PM | #440 |
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Otherwise, as you've alluded to, there'd've been mention of them. |
| Sep12-09, 11:49 PM | #441 |
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| Sep14-09, 09:44 PM | #442 |
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MIT Tech Review has good presentation/interview with Emanuel Sachs, founder of PV maker 1366. In particular, I was interested in a tangent question he addresses: "Do we need fundamental breakthroughs in solar cells for solar power to compete with conventional sources of electricity?" (at 4:23). Interestingly, he credits most of the drop in the cost of mass market PV electricity production in the last 30 years to advances in the production process (from $5/kWh -1978 to $0.20/kWh now), not to major physics 'breakthroughs'. There have been some big physics advances - multiband PV and thin film - but they're both niche players in the mass market.
I was also interested in where he drew his break even with natural gas (~$0.18/kWh) and coal ($0.05/kWh) electrical prices. The assumption there must be peak load only applications, i.e, no storage required, use it when you make it. This holds apparently only up about 7% of power needs or 70GW in the US. After that there a serious breakthrough is needed in energy storage for further PV growth. Sounds about right. Starts at 4:33 http://www.technologyreview.com/video/?vid=433 |
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