Comparing the Probability of Events: Is the Difference Greater Than Expected?

[pivoxa15]

If two events 1 and 2 have probability 0.81 and 0.82

And another two events, 3 and 4 have probability 0.01 and 0.02

Would it be correct to say that (event 4 will occur more often than event 3), compared with (event 2 more likely to occur than even 1)?

The comparison is 'the more likely'. To repharase the question. Is the (likliness of event 4 over event 3) greater than the likliness of (event 2 over event 1)?

I hope this question makes sense.

 

[Simon 6]

Yes, you are definitely correct.

Event 4 has exactly twice the probability of Event 3.
Event 2 has almost the same probability as Event 1.

Event 4 over Event 3 = 2/1
Event 2 over Event 1 = 82/81

Hope that helps.

Simon

 

[tacman]

Yes, it would be correct to say that event 4 will occur more often than event 3 and that event 2 is more likely to occur than event 1. The difference in probabilities between events 3 and 4 is much greater than the difference between events 1 and 2. In other words, the likelihood of event 4 occurring is greater compared to the likelihood of event 3 occurring, compared to the likelihood of event 2 occurring compared to the likelihood of event 1 occurring. This can also be seen by the fact that the probabilities for events 3 and 4 are much smaller than the probabilities for events 1 and 2.