Again, you are excluding the other 499,999 time that this scenario wouldn't happen.
Of course I would not sell you my lottery ticket, but that doesn't change the fact that I stil only have a 1/1,000,000 chance of having that winning ticket. By asking to sell you are giving me a new choice...
The last sentence that you just posted supports my argument whole heartedly, the chances of an ace coming up in your hat game will be 1/3, no matter how fance we get in determining what card I chose.
Again, by that logic I would have to not include all of the times where I was flipping cards and the ace did not come up in the last two (25/26) I cannot simply eliminate those from the set! They count too!
Yes, flipping cards over gives me new information, but if I do not get a chance to...
Now, here is the hole in your game. If we made a bet on that game at the very BEGINNING, the odds of me winning are one in 52. The act of you flipping over the cards simply delays us knowing the outcome of the game.
One the other hand, if you flip over a card and ask me to rewager, then you...
It is not more information that affects my decision on which card to choose, which was done at 1/52.
Think of it this way, if I were in a drawing with 51 other people, I have a 1/52 chance of winning. If a winner is randomly drawn, and then the LOSING names were called of one by one instead...
DavidSnider, thanks for seeing this the correct way. I understand the point of the game is to narrow down possibilities, but my question was based on the fact that the "odds" of having the million dollar case seem to chane every time a non million dollar case is chosen, and as you stated this...
I think you are missing the point.
If I guess a case, it is 1/26. If I look at it and there is no million dollars, oh well, it was still a 1/26 chance. Right?
What is the difference between looking in my case, or determining my case through deduction by looking at the other cases...
I am trying to settle a score on probability and odds, and I just wanted to see what everybody thought.
This springs from the fact that when you watch "Deal or No Deal" and cases are removed one at a time, Howie frequently announces that there is a 15% chance that the case holds a million...