Do you have any insight on a good way to model this kind of situation, then?
I'm confused about what you're saying. My confusion is because this seems to imply that trying to stop them *increases* the probability that they will succeed. Which really would mean any attempt to stop them...
Yes, I've seen plenty of those examples done, and they seem to make sense to me.
But there's nothing stopping me from rewording my questions as:
H = Someone does something
E = I observe someone trying to stop them,
P(H|E) = probability of H (someone doing something) given observation E (I...
I've been reading some about Bayesian statistics, and am a little confused. I never really covered Bayesian stuff as an undergrad, and am now a physicist, so I haven't had to learn it.
I have been trying to think of things in terms of more interesting examples than the trivial coin flipping...