Ike is heading for the Gulf of Mexico

[Ivan Seeking]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_5day.html#a_topad

 

[Math Is Hard]

My Dad (near the Texas coast) took the boards down that he nailed up the house with for Gustav. The way it's going, he might as well have left the boards up through November.

 

[turbo]

Holy crap! If that projected track is anywhere near accurate, there is some trouble brewing. A well-formed hurricane moving from the cooler Atlantic into the warm Gulf can turn into a monster. Let's hope this doesn't come true.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Holy crap! If that projected track is anywhere near accurate, there is some trouble brewing. A well-formed hurricane moving from the cooler Atlantic into the warm Gulf can turn into a monster. Let's hope this doesn't come true.

One European model goes way out on a limb and has it hitting Mobile, Alabama, but apparently most models show it entering the gulf.

Yes, this looks pretty dangerous. Note how it jumps up to a Cat 4.

 

[LowlyPion]

Right now Cuba and the Keys look to be in for a rough go of it by Monday afternoon.

Current jet streams look like Ike will begin to be steered northward more by then suggesting Florida panhandle landfall. But then I thought Gustav would end up east of New Orleans. So...

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Wind/JetStream.aspx

Whatever the situation let's hope it gives up some of its energy by then.

 

[Evo]

It's no longer a Cat 4 , it's been downgraded to a Cat 3 and projections (which this far off means little) is that it's headed for S Florida.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

It's no longer a Cat 4 , it's been downgraded to a Cat 3 and projections (which this far off means little) is that it's headed for S Florida.

Do you mean that it is projected to not make Cat 4? Right now the map shows it as a Cat 3. .

 

[Evo]

Do you mean that it is projected to not make Cat 4? Right now the map shows it as a Cat 3. .

Right now it is Cat 3, there is no telling what it will end up as.

 

[Astronuc]

As Ike moves toward and over Cuba is will probably lose some energy, but it could pick up again when it moves into the Gulf.

Gustav was supposed to strengthen as it moved across the Gulf, but it didn't strengthen as much as NHC thought it would.

Ike was a Cat 4 then lost some energy to become a Cat 3. If it hugs Floridas western coast, it may not strengthen too much it at all in the Gulf.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/204613.shtml?5day#contents (on Sept 05, 2008 - the information with this link will be updated several times each day)

As of today, it looks like it would hit somewhere between Mobile, AL and Pensacola, FL.

 

[russ_watters]

The "discussion" section of that nhc link is where they have all the good junk on the predictions. The intensity forecasts are touger even than the track, so we'll have to wait and see, but the projections are for it to enter the gulf as a major hurricane after a slight weakening over the next day:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 22.9N 64.1W 100 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 22.6N 66.2W 95 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 22.2N 68.9W 95 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 22.1N 71.3W 100 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 22.2N 73.7W 110 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 23.0N 78.2W 115 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 24.5N 81.5W 115 KT
120HR VT 10/1800Z 25.5N 83.0W 115 KT

Cat 5 is > 136 kt (155 mph), Cat 4 is 115-135 kt (131 - 154 mph).

 

[Moonbear]

Right now it is Cat 3, there is no telling what it will end up as.

The projections I've seen on the TV news show it dropping down to a Cat 2 before landfall. But, these things are never perfect, so who knows until it actually gets there.

 

[turbo]

The "discussion" section of that nhc link is where they have all the good junk on the predictions. The intensity forecasts are touger even than the track, so we'll have to wait and see, but the projections are for it to enter the gulf as a major hurricane after a slight weakening over the next day:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 22.9N 64.1W 100 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 22.6N 66.2W 95 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 22.2N 68.9W 95 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 22.1N 71.3W 100 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 22.2N 73.7W 110 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 23.0N 78.2W 115 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 24.5N 81.5W 115 KT
120HR VT 10/1800Z 25.5N 83.0W 115 KT

Cat 5 is > 136 kt (155 mph), Cat 4 is 115-135 kt (131 - 154 mph).

thanks, Russ. We'll have to see where it ends up.

PS. don't do more than putts and chip shots for a week or so. Good luck!

 

[russ_watters]

Well with Hanna here for the weekend, there won't be any temptation until next week, but I'm itching to get back to it. I suspect I'll try to hit the driving range next weekend.

 

[turbo]

Well with Hanna here for the weekend, there won't be any temptation until next week, but I'm itching to get back to it. I suspect I'll try to hit the driving range next weekend.

Swing easy, upper body only, and sweep through. Gentle constant application of force = club-head speed. It's true.

 

[LowlyPion]

The "discussion" section of that nhc link is where they have all the good junk on the predictions. The intensity forecasts are touger even than the track, so we'll have to wait and see, but the projections are for it to enter the gulf as a major hurricane after ...

I found this table on IKE projections for wind there:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/204613.shtml?table?large#contents

The probabilities add a different feel to the numbers, because as you say I think this calculation just must be more inexact from their models.

 

[Astronuc]

So from the table posted by Russ, the predictions indicate Ike could hit Cat 4 before the hits land - assuming it stays on the projected track.

 

[russ_watters]

Well, if it stays on the current track, landfall is well outside of the prediction's time range. Presumably, though, the warm waters of the gulf would do little to sap its strength.

 

[Evo]

On the news they said landfall looks like it may be the southern tip of Florida, but hurricanes are known to move around erratically even after a landfall. It could hit Florida, then either head into the Atlantic or back into the Gulf.

 

[Astronuc]

Right now the five day projection has Ike passing along the northern coast of Cuba.

Here is the history of Cat 3+ hurricanes passing withing 200 miles of Ike's present position.
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_climo.gif
In the past, they usually turn north, some heading up the Atlantic Coast

Comparison of models with Ike's track (Sep 4)
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/hurricane/images/at200809_verify.gif
Animations of models from Sep 1-4
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_verify.html#a_topad


For comparison, here is Katria's and Rita's histories
Katrina - http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200511.asp
http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_2005_charts_zoom/at200511.gif

Rita - http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200517.asp
http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_2005_charts_zoom/at200517.gif

 

[LowlyPion]

Right now the five day projection has Ike passing along the northern coast of Cuba.

The NHC puts it tracking further south and going more to the west than yesterday. This would be a little more troubling for the Gulf.

The GFDL run looks a little alarming after it escapes Cuba.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_v5d.html?extraprod=v5d#a_topad

 

[Evo]

If it starts to look like it's heading for Louisiana again, I guess all of those people that just returned from being bussed out are going to have to go through it again. In an active season there can be several threats, I don't see this constant evacuation as a permanent solution.

I feel for the people in Cuba, it doesn't look like they have much chance of avoiding getting hit.

 

[Astronuc]

Here's an interesting article - Why Disasters Are Getting Worse
http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20080904/us_time/whydisastersaregettingworse

If it seems like disasters are getting more common, it's because they are. But some disasters do seem to be affecting us worse - and not for the reasons you may think. Floods and storms have led to most of the excess damage. The number of flood and storm disasters has gone up by 7.4% every year in recent decades, according to the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. (Between 2000 and 2007, the growth was even faster - with an average annual rate of increase of 8.4%.) Of the total 197 million people affected by disasters in 2007, 164 million were affected by floods.

It is tempting to look at the line-up of storms in the Atlantic (Hanna, Ike, Josephine) and, in the name of everything green, blame climate change for this state of affairs. But there is another inconvenient truth out there: We are getting more vulnerable to weather mostly because of where we live, not just how we live.

In recent decades, people around the world have moved en masse to big cities near water. The population of Miami-Dade County in Florida was about 150,000 in the 1930s, a decade fraught with severe hurricanes. Since then, the population of Miami-Dade County has rocketed 1,600% to 2,400,000.
. . . .
If it happened today, the Great Miami storm would have caused $140 to $157 billion in damages. (Hurricane Katrina, the costliest storm in U.S. history, caused $100 billion in losses.) "There has been no trend in the number or intensity of storms at landfall since 1900,"says Pielke, a professor of environmental studies at the University of Colorado. "The storms themselves haven't changed."
. . . .

It's just that more people live in areas that will be inundated by floods and/or the housing is not built to withstand the hurricanes or tornado, or microbursts that are relatively common in some areas.

 

[Evo]

Here's an interesting article - Why Disasters Are Getting Worse
http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20080904/us_time/whydisastersaregettingworse
It's just that more people live in areas that will be inundated by floods and/or the housing is not built to withstand the hurricanes or tornado, or microbursts that are relatively common in some areas.

And as soon as they get wiped out, they'll be demanding more taxpayer money to put them right back where they shouldn't be and then cry again when the next storm threatens. Why don't we put these areas off limits for building?

 

[Astronuc]

And as soon as they get wiped out, they'll be demanding more taxpayer money to put them right back where they shouldn't be and then cry again when the next storm threatens. Why don't we put these areas off limits for building?

I think some areas are off-limits now. I've seen some maps that show some communities don't exist anymore after Katrina.

A friend and former co-worker lives a few miles from the ocean near Wilmington. He was talking about the million dollar homes that are built by closer to the ocean, and I've seen many down there when I've visited on business. I used to stay at a time-share hotel/condo on the beach, and I think it was Hurricane Floyd that washed out the beach and cut a new channel in the island right next to the hotel. Basically the Corps of Engineers decided not to rebuild the beach or fill in the new channel, and that left the hotel without protection. I didn't follow it after that, but my understanding is that a lot of investors lost their money. With the ocean lapping at the resaurant overlooking the ocean, I think the hotel lost its insurance.


Here's an interesting pictures - a historical perspective of all Atlantic hurricanes which formed between 1851 and 2005.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Atlantic_hurricane_tracks.jpg

Sooner or later.

 

[tribdog]

I've lived in the desert all my life, but I've known since I was about 5 that New Orleans was below sea level. I can't believe so many people were taken by surprise last time

 

[Ivan Seeking]

So from the table posted by Russ, the predictions indicate Ike could hit Cat 4 before the hits land - assuming it stays on the projected track.

It is now a Cat 4 and expected to stay that way for a couple of days.

 

[LowlyPion]

Looks like Ike is heading into mid Gulf region. That looks potentially ominous if it survives the ravaging of Cuba.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5day#contents

 

[Astronuc]

Looks like Ike will wander along the middle of Cuba and into the Gulf. As of 8pm EDT, Ike had sustained winds of 120 mph (Cat 3), but those should decrease as the eye moves along Cuba.

The 5-day projection puts in the mid Gulf on Friday. It could pull a Katrina (NO), Rita (Houston/Beaumont) or turn west toward Corpus Cristi/Brownsville. It could restrengthen to a Cat 4 in the Gulf.

 

[Math Is Hard]

aw crud. Dad is going to have to board up the house again.

 

[turbo]

Looks like Ike will wander along the middle of Cuba and into the Gulf. As of 8pm EDT, Ike had sustained winds of 120 mph (Cat 3), but those should decrease as the eye moves along Cuba.

The 5-day projection puts in the mid Gulf on Friday. It could pull a Katrina (NO), Rita (Houston/Beaumont) or turn west toward Corpus Cristi/Brownsville. It could restrengthen to a Cat 4 in the Gulf.

None of those sound real good, Astronuc. When Katrina hit, a client of mine that ran a big ice business on the MS coast lost his beach-house, and his ice-plant in that area was wrecked. Sea-lions and seals from a local aquarium somehow congregated in his warehouse (nice and cool there) and he graciously allowed them to stay while their enclosures were rebuilt. The staff came over to his plant every day with buckets of fish and other supplements to feed the critters until they were ready to take them back.

Lots of these projections show Ike curving off one way or another, but if MS/LA coastal area gets a good hit, we're going to see some damage. NO looks like it might be under the gun if the storm tracks straight and that would be really bad. Let's hope that doesn't happen, or that if it does, we either insist on REAL levees or abandon all rebuilding efforts there. I love that city, as most blues/jazz afficionados do, but it is a non-accident waiting to happen again and again and again. It is certain that in its current condition, NO will be damaged by every decent-sized storm that wanders in. Either we protect it properly, or let it go.