Nobel Prize in Physics 2026 predictions

[pines-demon]

As in 2024 and 2025, here is the 2026 thread. As indicated by various sources it is getting increasingly difficult to predict the laureates. So here I aggregate different sources and comment them until 2026 Nobel Week.

You can also leave your prediction here.

Here are the predictions of 2025 that did not make it (note only 3 can win at a time):

• Peter Shor, David Deutch, Daniel Loss, David DiVincenzo, Artur Ekert, Jianwei Pan, Peter Zoller, Ignacio Cirac, Gilles Brassard, Charles Bennet, Yasunobu Nakamura, John Preskill, Alexei Kitaev and more for quantum computing and quantum information
• Yakir Aharonov and Michael Berry (and maybe also Alexei Kitaev again) for geometrical phases (various sources)
• Pablo Jarrillo Herrero, Allan McDonald, Rafi Bistritzer and Eva Andrei for magic angle in twisted graphene and twistronics (various sources)
• Christoph Gerber, Franz Josef Giessibl and Andreas J. Heinrich for the atomic force microscope (various sources)
• John Pendry, Federico Capasso, David R. Smith and Andrea Alù for metamaterials and nanophotonics (various sources)
• Lene Hau, Stephen E. Harris, Mikhail Lukin, Kosmas Tsakmakidis and Ortwin Hess for slow light, electromagnetically induced transparency and rainbow trapping (various sources including PF)
• Hidetoshi Katori and Jun Ye for optical lattice clocks (University of Gothenburg predictions)
• Alan Guth, Andrei Linde and Paul Steinhardt for cosmic inflation (Physics World)
• James P. Eisenstein, Mordehai Heiblum, Jainendra K. Jain for 2D correlated electron systems (Wolf Prize 2025)
• Ingrid Daubechies, Stéphane Mallat and Yves Meyer for wavelet theory (Clarivate Physics 2025)
• Ewine van Dishoeck for astrochemistry research (Clarivate Physics 2025)

No 2026 Wolf Prize before this year's Nobel Prize. Tune in for 2026 Clarivate Laureates predictions at the end of September.

 

[pines-demon]

The three leading candidates as of now are:

1. Eugene Mele known for the theory of topological insulators and quantum spin hall effect (chances 97%)
2. Alexei Kitaev for many topological related stuff including quantum computing research (30 %)
3. John Preskill for quantum computing research (20%)

The fact that Mele went so high in the last couple days might mean that there is a leak (which would not be the first time for the Nobel).

Unusual researchers that have already some bets include: David Charbonneau and Sara Seager for exoplanetary research, also Marc Davis, Carlos Frenk and Simon White for Frenk-Navarro-White profile and dark matter formation.

Disclaimer: I don't advise anybody to bet as it is highly risky. Also these platforms are illegal in some countries.

 

[pines-demon]

Just for the fun, yesterday there was the Ig Nobel awards. For physics we have:

• Randy Hurd, Zhao Pan, Tadd Truscott, Kaveeshan Thurairajah for theoretical and experimental attempts to design a splash-free urinal. Comment here: https://arstechnica.com/science/202...spired-optimal-design-for-splash-free-urinal/

 

[starfractal]

As in 2024 and 2025, here is the 2026 thread. As indicated by various sources it is getting increasingly difficult to predict the laureates. So here I aggregate different sources and comment them until 2026 Nobel Week.

You can also leave your prediction here.

Here are the predictions of 2025 that did not make it (note only 3 can win at a time):

• Peter Shor, David Deutch, Daniel Loss, David DiVincenzo, Artur Ekert, Jianwei Pan, Peter Zoller, Ignacio Cirac, Gilles Brassard, Charles Bennet, Yasunobu Nakamura, John Preskill, Alexei Kitaev and more for quantum computing and quantum information
• Yakir Aharonov and Michael Berry (and maybe also Alexei Kitaev again) for geometrical phases (various sources)
• Pablo Jarrillo Herrero, Allan McDonald, Rafi Bistritzer and Eva Andrei for magic angle in twisted graphene and twistronics (various sources)
• Christoph Gerber, Franz Josef Giessibl and Andreas J. Heinrich for the atomic force microscope (various sources)
• John Pendry, Federico Capasso, David R. Smith and Andrea Alù for metamaterials and nanophotonics (various sources)
• Lene Hau, Stephen E. Harris, Mikhail Lukin, Kosmas Tsakmakidis and Ortwin Hess for slow light, electromagnetically induced transparency and rainbow trapping (various sources including PF)
• Hidetoshi Katori and Jun Ye for optical lattice clocks (University of Gothenburg predictions)
• Alan Guth, Andrei Linde and Paul Steinhardt for cosmic inflation (Physics World)
• James P. Eisenstein, Mordehai Heiblum, Jainendra K. Jain for 2D correlated electron systems (Wolf Prize 2025)
• Ingrid Daubechies, Stéphane Mallat and Yves Meyer for wavelet theory (Clarivate Physics 2025)
• Ewine van Dishoeck for astrochemistry research (Clarivate Physics 2025)

No 2026 Wolf Prize before this year's Nobel Prize. Tune in for 2026 Clarivate Laureates predictions at the end of September.

Pendry, Smith an Alu are being touted as potential Nobel Prize winners based, in no small part, on the alleged metamaterial invention of the invisibility cloak. This focuses back to the Nov 2006 Science paper on same. However, that device failed as an invisibility cloak and did not hide the object. Smith's own follow up with Kuntdz and Duke colleagues attempted to replicate the Science paper result and found a substantial shadow caused by the device--no hiding from a shadow! The total scattering reduction was only 24% (1.2 dB) over 2.3 percent bandwidth. That data was published in 2010 and is easily found on the web. Alu did some interesting experiments on cloaking devices in 2009 but was preceded by Cohen, who successfully and first demonstrated the invisibility cloak and received the patent for the invention. That data is also available and that story was detailed at length in the January 2015 Microwave Journal, also easily found on the web.

 

[berkeman]

The three leading candidates according to what? And why is his disclaimer still there?

The three leading candidates as of now are:

1. Eugene Mele known for the theory of topological insulators and quantum spin hall effect (chances 97%)
2. Alexei Kitaev for many topological related stuff including quantum computing research (30 %)
3. John Preskill for quantum computing research (20%)

The fact that Mele went so high in the last couple days might mean that there is a leak (which would not be the first time for the Nobel).

Unusual researchers that have already some bets include: David Charbonneau and Sara Seager for exoplanetary research, also Marc Davis, Carlos Frenk and Simon White for Frenk-Navarro-White profile and dark matter formation.

Disclaimer: I don't advise anybody to bet as it is highly risky. Also these platforms are illegal in some countries.